Over the past few days, I was actually starting to consider a move from cash to stocks, but my analysis told me that this mini-crash will not be solved in a few days. So I waited and took some short positions. Then this happens. At time of writing Apple's capitalization is down circa $60 billion. There is extreme fear in this market and nerves are all around. Ultimately the Apple cash cow is actually reasonably priced with a PE of 19 and prospects are not that bad. What you have to remember is it is not the reality, it is the market participants perception of reality that matters. It is great to be a contrarian investor, but only at the right time.
Chart commentary. From August 2018 the RSI and CMF showed strong negative divergence from the price trend. I held Apple and sold circa 18 days ago because of the increasing volatility in the FANGS and the markets. What is also bad is the exit of Apple's price down through the bottom of the Ichimoku Cloud.
Long-term the Liberated Stock Trader Crash Detector has stopped saying Bull trend, and is waiting to confirm the big bear trend. But we are not there yet. The shock warning is a precursor to that.
Hold onto your pants for this ride and don't catch a falling knife.
Oh I will grab that crash detector system of yours.
What is the URL again to purchase?
I may need a little help setting it up and getting it working as haven't used the PINE scripts yet so any assistance you can offer or FAQ's would be greatly appreciated.
Thanks in advance and cheers Barry,
I hope you are well.
craigemm
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Haha Barry,
yes reminds me of the 'Keynesian Beauty Contest' ( zeninvestor.org/keynesian-beauty-contest/ ) but in reverse IE. just who is the ugliest in Tech? Just who will win the Cubic Zirconia encrusted Tiara..?
I'd bet Apple is a shoe in for runner up, but the CLEAR winner, to my 3rd order of thinking would have to be FACEBOOK
Im betting that once the Public realise their ENTIRE Data, including all the information they provide to the State, say for a Drivers Licence, along with their on-line political opinions, entire social networks, self proffered history, ALL their habits, spending patterns &c. have been made available to ANY comer with the Yuan/$/Rubles to pay...
(including those nasty Liberty hating Totalitarian Communist Dictatorships) - and the vulnerable security position that PUTS users in...
FACEBOOK will be the BIG SHORT opportunity of a Lifetime !
There are already rumblings of dissatisfaction and TRUST issues.
Just as an example; here in Australia, after the scandal of Cambridge Analytica, it was further revealed that old mate Zuckerborg had flogged the COMPLETE Facebook history and personal details of 15 MILLION Australians - 62.5% of our population (yes not a typo) !!! to none other than our Plutocratic Communist neighbours to the North for an undisclosed amount of Yuan without the Individual User's knowledge!!!
That's FACEBOOK and the ethics of their senior Management for you!
To capitalise on this trade right will be be just a matter of getting the timing right hence I'm wondering if buying some longish dated PUTS or selling CALLS would be the best way to get exposure here given the rout may take a while but it may come quickly..? Hypothetically speaking what would you do?
Given the key event is the Public 'waking up' and walking away' this becomes unpredictable.
However if you remember how quickly and fickle the Internet user is to jump ship (think MySpace or Alta Vista - perhaps Rupert Murdoch's 2 greatest Investment fails? ) then the Storm could break anytime and a raging torrent of lovely, voluminous Short Profits would quickly turn into a deluge..?
I think fundamentally Facebook is by far the ugliest Contestant and it is only a matter of time until everyone thinks that everyone else thinks that is the case.
What do you think?
The_Unwind
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Barry,
PS.
I will work on the article this weekend as promised.
If I can finish it, I will forward it to you early next week
If for any reason it's not completed this weekend,
I want high standards, .. will send it off to you by next weekend at the latest.
I want my writing to up to the standards YOU
are setting here on tradingview.com,
and on your website Liberated Stock Trader.com
Thanks for your patience/ understanding
I promise to come thru for you.
THE_UNWIND
The_Unwind
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Barry,
Excellent summary on Apple.
Very well put together, and impressive timely write up.
"Market participants perceptions of reality" ...WOW ! That's it exactly.
That is the holy grail of explanation of the stock market at work every day. Simple,yet very compelling.
If that is your original thought, I really wish you would elaborate on that further,
perhaps with a post here on tradingview.com,
or an article on your site.
What is the URL again to purchase?
I may need a little help setting it up and getting it working as haven't used the PINE scripts yet so any assistance you can offer or FAQ's would be greatly appreciated.
Thanks in advance and cheers Barry,
I hope you are well.