2. Been waiting for the blast off, and I think the CHINA TRADE COMPLETION, is it.
3. Prediction:
Tomorrow we open at $47.75 PLUS which is the break out point I believe, and we run like mad from there.
$50+ Tomorrow, or the day after that, or maybe after that... I really think tomorrow is the day based on divergence, fund flows, and run to earnings has now begun...
- The AMD Whisperer
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Oh and it is NOT a question of IF, it is a question of WHEN. I think I have the timing right this time.
If we are right, Tomorrow this happens:
1. VIX makes a NEW LOW (Might trend up with the market a while too) so not necessary
2. GLD meltdown (Necessary for the complete blast off over $60 and to $100 - this may be a trailing indicator - but start building a short position now)
3. Avoid the SMH (I am not sure if INTC will be on the run with us here, and they are 6% of the SMH or something, so they can tank it)
- Intel may run into earnings. In the 2000 Crash, Intel tanked the second week before earnings, and then ran into earnings, then promptly crashed after earnings, BUT, AMD
4. NVDA should run with us to $500+ (We should run together now)
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5. AMD ran for 3 MORE months after INTC crashed. I don't think this market is going anywhere but up, but I would look for divergence with INTC going down, and the rest of the SMH going up.
6. When you see divergence (IF), from AMD and INTC, you buy MORE AMD, and you SHORT INTC to the moon.
7. You want GLD and possibly SLV (It has utility and COPPER and SILVER may run hard, and Gold will head back to below $1200)
8. You want DUST to SPIKE
9. You want NUGT to tank
0. AMD may be way over $50 and headed to $60 by the time the rest of the signals of the major BULL RUN that is about to take place are all shown.
1. Defensives will get killed. Once GLD and VLUE start to tank you need to load up on the following ETFs:
A. QQQ B. SPY C. MTUM D. XLK E. IGV
And fund all the ETFs that were defensive and short them, or buy the short fund, so you can hold it.
Will be posting many ideas for you to KILL IT DURING THE NEXT YEAR.
The everything rally is coming to and END and then we can have the REAL rally.
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And please be patient. You can pick so many stocks right now and do well, you may not always get the best entry, but you should really be buying now and wait and see where we are in the next few months. You will be surprised. All the strong momentum and growth names (I don't mean BYND), think AMD, NVDA, ADBE, CRM, will be 50% higher probably 3 months from now. So sit back, relax, and enjoy the start of the newest 2020 Bull Market.
It may take the SHEEP a few weeks, and CNBC will help them a long, and you know that the cyclical earnings will be STELLAR, and that will be it. The final nail in the coffin for the BEARs and they will be completely wiped out. When the final BEAR is on board, we are just getting started...
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So ideas like DUST, and shorting GLD, and shorting VLUE, and other defensive names, will take some time, and you need to build positions slowly.
It takes time for people who missed the boat, who are waiting for the crash, to realize that the crash isn't coming, and FOMO will take over. It will get crazy.
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And FOMO will turn into a "new thesis" that this is just the beginning of a BULL MARKET and we just came out of a 2018-2019 bear market. Then analysts will wake up, and YET another round of upgrades, this time due to the rebounding economy.
Then what will happen is that the FED will be on the OPPOSITE side of this thing. Money will be cheap, and this will turn from a BULL MARKET, into a BUBBLE. Depends how fast they try to slow it down....
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If everything is correct here, I would say:
December 2020 AMD FAIR VALUE IS:
$80 - $100 (Based on Beta and 20% Market Upside Minimum This year on S&P, more like 40%)
AMD 2020+ Bubble PRICE
$500 (This is where this prediction comes from - A Bubble)
- Cheers
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The best indication (hopefully not too late), of when it is time to load the boat on Momentum stocks, is as soon as FOOLS stop buying GOLD.
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There is one thing I can guarantee you:
"THE EVERYTHING RALLY WILL NOT LAST. THIS IS WHERE THE CORRECTION LIES. THE CRAP WILL CORRECT, AND HARD, AND SOON".
That will be the January Correction they speak of...
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So I expect a correction any day now, just not with QQQ, and AAPL and such. All the defensives WILL CORRECT. They are over-valued, and a joke at this point.
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You want timing, I will give you timing...
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IF THE S&P CROSSES 3300, IT WILL NOT STOP UNTIL 3850. THAT IS TOMORROW. MAYBE...
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Analysis shows that AMD is the best indicator of past crashes and such, it is both a trailing and a leading indicator. AMD is the most important stock in the index. AAPL doesn't count compared to AMD. AMD has the beat of the market and sentiment of the world encompassed in it's daily moves...
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I can tell you what the world thinks about the future of the market by watching the daily undulations of AMD. It is like the heart beat of the investing world.
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SO...
ANY QUESTIONS...
DIDN'T THINK SO.
HAVE A GREAT DAY.
- THE AMD WHISPERER
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$49.70....
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Come on, all the chair lifts are open, I want to see $50, so I can close this idea and have a 100 % track record on Trading View. 100 percent baby on 40 ideas. Don't try that at home..
Gold falling...
DUST UP NUGT DOWN XLK UP MTUM UP NVDA, AMD, AAPL, QQQ
Just frigging killing it ladies and gentlemen...
$49.75...
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$49.95 !!!
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$50
10:05EST January 16 2020
HEY WASH GUY, THIS ONE IS FOR YOU!!!
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What a nice day. Hit $50.31, and retraced to $49.25 and through distribution, simply went right back to $47.75.
We are now at $47.85 after hours, and will most like GAP over $50 for the morning and run from there.
Have a good one.
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Wrong typing, went from $50.31 to $49.25, then back to $49.75, then now $49.85 in after hours.
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Should GAP over $50 and run. Short will get burned once again. Never learn. Bull Market. Bear Market is over.
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AMD Currently at 5:56AM $50.05 / $50.07.
An open over $50.11, puts $50.50 on the table, then $51, then $51.50.
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For those on the short side, the market opens at 7:30 for the retail investor that wishes to cover quietly, to avoid the 9:30AM squeeze, that will really hurt. I would suggest you go long, that way you can recover your short losses on the way to AMD $100.
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My Quote of the Day
"Shorting AMD, is like trying to pick up pennies off the tracks of the TGV".
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NEWS
Taiwan Semiconductor's guidance, CapEx boost a positive for chips Semiconductor stocks got a boost on Thursday after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) reported quarterly earnings. Taiwan Semi's fourth quarter results were mixed but the company's view for its current quarter sparked a semiconductor rally on Wall Street. EARNINGS: Despite putting up a fourth quarter revenue number that was slightly lower than expected, Taiwan Semi said it expects Q1 revenue to reach 10.2B-10.3B, versus 7.1B a year ago and the 10.09B consensus. "Moving into first quarter 2020, despite mobile product seasonality, we anticipate our business to be supported by the continued ramp-up of 5G smartphones," Chief Financial Officer Wendell Huang said. PROXY FOR GLOBAL TECH DEMAND: TSMC has noteworthy customers in the tech sector including, Apple (AAPL) and Huawei Technologies. Additionally, most of the leading fabless semiconductor companies such as Qualcomm (QCOM), Nvidia (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Marvell (MRVL) and Broadcom (AVGO) are customers of TSMC. TSMC's spending plans were also a catalyst to tech stocks and semi equipment names like KLA Corporation (KLAC) and Lam Research (LRCX). TSMC projects a capital expense budget in 2020 of 15B to 16B, up from the 14.9B the company spent in 2019. According to Barron's, Citi analyst Atif Malik wrote in a note on Thursday that TSMC's spending plans are "well above" his previous projection of 14.5B. Malik noted that TSMC said it expects to spend 80% of its 2020 CapEx budget on advanced process technologies-at 7nm line widths and smaller and added that the company's robust spending plans comes as good news for the semiconductor equipment manufacturing sector." PRICE ACTION: Shares of Taiwan Semiconductor are modestly higher amid a strong rally in other chip names like AMD, Applied Materials (AMAT), Qualcomm and Micron (MU).
When the market opens do this: You will be rich by March:
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BUY
AMD MARCH 20 55 STRIKE - LOTS (2.13) SMH MARCH 20 160 STRIKE - LOTS (.60) QQQ MARCH 20 240 STIKE - LOTS (.33C)
The Market is priced for a 10 percent move higher, and these options are break even at that level. We will do 20 PERCENT. These strikes I have calculated to make the most in terms of risk/reward.
Cheers.
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If both NVDA break out of $250 and AMD break out over $50, and HOLD, this confirms that NVDA is going to $300 and AMD to $75. We are going to be lead 500 points or more higher on the S&P in the next 60 days.
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NEWS
This was from yesterday morning I think, but who cares, we are going to $75.
09:20 AMD, NXP Semiconductors, Micron, Intel, Maxim Integrated analyst commentary at Barclays AMD price target raised to $50 from $32 at Barclays. Barclays analyst Blayne Curtis raised his price target for AMD (AMD) to $50 from $32 ahead of the company's Q4 results while keeping an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The U.S. Semiconductor group is at all-time highs, pushed higher by a combination of improving fundamentals and a trade deal, Curtis tells investors in a research note. He believes memory is the "most positive sounding" sector, aided by both improving demand and pricing trends. With "all this goodness," the analyst finds it too early to call the top on most names but does acknowledge the "air is getting a little thin for some." Curtis favor names with better revenue drivers and relative valuations including NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) and Micron Technology (MU). The analyst keeps an Underweight rating on Intel (INTC) "until there is some sort of capitulation on 10nm and competitive challenges." He also downgraded this morning Maxim Integrated (MXIM) to Underweight from Equal Weight.
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After GUIDANCE FROM AMD ON EARNINGS, WHICH WILL BE SO SO, ANALYSTS WILL HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO UPGRADE AMD FURTHER AND PLAY CATCH UP.
You heard it here first. Those $50 price targets will be going to $80.
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Okay shorts, pre-market open, last chance to cover at $50. Or you can cover at $60. Your choice.
You are welcome. Lets see what the long weekend brings. We have earnings, starting on Wednesday January 23rd, with Intel. If the market goes up and Intel goes up, you have the green light to purchase just about any semiconductor stock on the index. Next stop for AMD is $52.50, then $55, NVDA also ready to Bull Flag, but I think the rally goes on pause until Intel earnings. Hang tight. We are on the 28th. So Intel will be all we need to know. Plus we also have TSM from yesterday and that was stellar. AMD written all over it, especially now that AAPL has moved to 5nm and moved away from Taiwan Semi. This frees up spare capacity for AMD.
MD hires Daniel McNamara as senior VP AMD (AMD) announced it has hired Daniel McNamara as senior VP and general manager, server business unit. McNamara is responsible for building on the introduction of the 2nd Gen AMD Epyc processors to further accelerate adoption of the company's server solutions with cloud, enterprise and ecosystem partners. McNamara combines semiconductor and enterprise expertise, engineering execution and a track record of driving growth in the data center market. Most recently, he was senior vice president and general manager of Intel's (INTC) network and custom logic group.
And 2 days ago:
Taiwan Semiconductor's guidance, CapEx boost a positive for chips Semiconductor stocks got a boost on Thursday after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) reported quarterly earnings. Taiwan Semi's fourth quarter results were mixed but the company's view for its current quarter sparked a semiconductor rally on Wall Street. EARNINGS: Despite putting up a fourth quarter revenue number that was slightly lower than expected, Taiwan Semi said it expects Q1 revenue to reach 10.2B-10.3B, versus 7.1B a year ago and the 10.09B consensus. "Moving into first quarter 2020, despite mobile product seasonality, we anticipate our business to be supported by the continued ramp-up of 5G smartphones," Chief Financial Officer Wendell Huang said. PROXY FOR GLOBAL TECH DEMAND: TSMC has noteworthy customers in the tech sector including, Apple (AAPL) and Huawei Technologies. Additionally, most of the leading fabless semiconductor companies such as Qualcomm (QCOM), Nvidia (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Marvell (MRVL) and Broadcom (AVGO) are customers of TSMC. TSMC's spending plans were also a catalyst to tech stocks and semi equipment names like KLA Corporation (KLAC) and Lam Research (LRCX). TSMC projects a capital expense budget in 2020 of 15B to 16B, up from the 14.9B the company spent in 2019. According to Barron's, Citi analyst Atif Malik wrote in a note on Thursday that TSMC's spending plans are "well above" his previous projection of 14.5B. Malik noted that TSMC said it expects to spend 80% of its 2020 CapEx budget on advanced process technologies-at 7nm line widths and smaller and added that the company's robust spending plans comes as good news for the semiconductor equipment manufacturing sector." PRICE ACTION: Shares of Taiwan Semiconductor are modestly higher amid a strong rally in other chip names like AMD, Applied Materials (AMAT), Qualcomm and Micron (MU).
The fact that the Senior VP and GM of the Server Division left from AMD, tells you all you need to know. INTC can completely BLOW UP on Wednesday, and we probably go another 20% higher. That is what happened in 2000. Now remember, everyone has analyzed the 2000 crash, QQQ, INTC, AMD, to try and predict the crash and end to the bull market. Once they realize that earnings are a major beat, and that guidance shows sector bottom, that is all she wrote. 4000 on the S&P. Too many people are hedging their bets into earnings. Kramer has been quite smug lately about earnings. All the bears on CNBC and being laughed at by the crew. Serious heavyweight Bears are being laughed off the show. They know something. Trump = Kudlow = Kramer. Simple. He knows that earnings are a frigging blow out and we are at the start of a new bull market. They have all taken their positions:
TODAY:
Listen very carefully. Druckenmiller called into CNBC, he said BUY now.
Also, Templeton himself called CNBC this morning, and the headline was how the S&P was going on a tear after breaking out from 3300.
Sound familiar? These are the best minds in the business, and WE front ran them all. Now they probably took positions in September and are lying about it, but a lot of people missed the rally, now they are chasing, and calling CNBC to tell us Nasdaq to 4000.
Thanks for the advice.
Maybe Robert Schiller can chime in as well.
I think that maybe we get the next Nobel prize.
Anyway, just got back from a week of skiing at Mont Tremblant and seeing the balance on both my managed and personal account makes me really smile.
I am telling you that we will correct at some point, but it will be short-lived and bought like crazy. Once the BEARS come around and realize their last stand was 3300, and they all get creamed and throw in the towel, things will start to change. The narrative will take us exponentially higher. Think of January 2020 as 1996 all over again. AMD at $250 by 2022 will look really nice in your retirement portfolio...
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@drchelsea1, It has been amazing watching the events unfold as you predict them to do. First, resistance for AMD near 50..... Then multiple attempts to breach it followed by dips and buying without a serious sell off. Then 50 falls. Then it gaps over 50 and runs to 51. It tries so hard to sell off, to bounce and fall and buying comes at every dip. Today the last 30 minute buying rappers as it moves back up 30 more cents into a strong close. You have me believing, you have been dead on for the last 3 months.
I know question how this stock can run to 75$.... But I know my doubts and questions are coming from a fog, a lack of understanding of what you see so clearly. You talk about defensive stocks, about the bull market just beginning and I know from the research that I have done that AMD is positioned with real technology in a real world that is living in the past as it looks to Intel to be the force it once was. My question is this, can AMD steal enough market share, can their apparent technological advantages be so hidden that the rest of the market does not see what we see? I am a lay person, I am a serious, curious, driven learner and I think I can see it. But, and this is a big but, can this be momentum, or can this momentum be occurring in spite of the technological disruptive chip technology that AMD has developed, and therefore lead to disappointing earnings, big corrections in the share price? Or.... is this already priced into these moves and "smart" money already knows that AMD is begining a Nvdia like run to 250? I have so many questions!!!!!! I am now very confident that AMD will cross 60$ a share by mid February, but could this happen sooner if AMD releases a great 4th quarter in light of a miss by Intel? Seriously, I am an amateur, but can still envision a scenario that makes AMD go up 50% by mid March.
Also, you speak of AMD as if it was the heart and soul of the overall market? As it being seen as a mortem important indicator of the whole market's future than Apple is.... So I am also curious how a 2$ stock 4 years ago could possibly rise to such a critical level of overall market future performance so soon. Is the answer as simple as for all of the understanding I have about AMD's disruptive technology that smart money knows it is of even greater significance that even I can imagine? I look forward to your insights as always. Peace and prosperity seem to be the sentiment now unfolding.....
DeRothschild
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All the comments here sound like a pump and dump scheme. AMD's gonna hit $50.00 then tank. Then I'll be shorting it.
NOW TIME TO GET BACK TO THE SKI SLOPES...