The "building blocks" method I call "Time@mode" allows you to count time at the mode of the trend and use that time to count forward in time to have an idea of the duration of an advance (or decline).
The "price range" around the "mode" of the trend is the measuring stick for the rally (or decline).
So, you get both a time and price target to utilize.
In AMZN, the price target has been reached and the time is almost out. It has one more week.
The "building blocks" method forces me to use "modes" that are 20 periods or less, so if a mode is more than 20 time periods, switch to a time frame so that 20 periods or less are at the mode.
The "yellow triangles" are "blast-off" moves I label "range expansion" which defines that the action around the mode has ended and the market is ready to trend.
If UP trend, then the mode was "accumulation". If DOWN trend, then the mode was "distribution."
Nice and easy, plain and simple.
For any of you watching AMZN, I hope it is exciting to see these market caps and the flood of enthusiasm that this rally is creating.
What is my trading advice?
SELL using trailing stops.
Get out if under the 10 day moving average of the lows. Get out if the market is down by more than the previous day's range. Get out if the risk is more than 1% to your stop level for your portfolio.
If AMZN doesn't settle back in here, then consider re-entry after 10 more weeks.
Tim
12:58PM EST May 25, 2017
Bình luận
⋅
Remember that "Weekly Time" expires this Friday.
Important.
Bình luận
⋅
I hope you have considered the risk/reward in AMZN up here. I think the euphoria is about "at peak" for Amazon shares. I don't know of who is left to buy. A market always needs more buyers than sellers (by shares, not by people) to keep it "afloat". Remember too, that stocks are priced "at the margin" which means at the last price someone who wants to buy or sell who wants to get "in" or "out". So, it frankly doesn't take much to change the price a lot if all of the sudden people decide to "stop buying", the price could fall tremendously. In other words, the price of a stock is highly volatile and subject to tremendous price variation because of this. IF the market was conducted by auction twice a day, you might see entirely different behavior and far more logical price action, backed up with more data and understanding more about supply and demand at each price level. As it is now, there are micro-auctions every billionth of a second.
Enjoy your gains and donate some to a charity that is meaningful to you. All of these trillions of stock market wealth that have been created this year can make opportunities for those who need one.
Best,
Tim 1:51PM June 14, 2017 Wednesday EST
Bình luận
⋅
If you can see here... the chart is telling us to BE SHORT AMZN here. Risk to $1010, downside to $850. $994+ last.
Bình luận
⋅
Had I used the "price range" tools here at TradingView, I would have noticed that the yellow box on the top-right was smaller in % than the box on the lower-left. When you make them the same size (21.55% is the size of the accumulation range), you will see that AMZN actually FAILED to reach its target from the 10-week mode. So when AMZN broke under the low from the week before, there was nothing but stop-loss orders underneath the price action and the price accelerated down to $930.
Bình luận
⋅
If you update the chart from the time of this forecast - you will see it was a decent forecast. I hope you enjoyed it and look forward to your comments and questions.
Tim 10/17/2017 2:07PM EST
Bình luận
IvanLabrie
⋅
Amazing Tim...this correlates perfectly with my weekly BTCUSD top idea. Short the internet, buy retail?
timwest
⋅
@IvanLabrie, Yes. I think it is a great time to revisit "value stocks" here. We have focused on airlines for the last 6-8 months on the long side, automobiles and other retail names that have tremendous free cash flow yields that over time will give us decent odds of a profit.
A-shot
⋅
Good one!
87spider
⋅
@2use, Thanks! There's a fury to jump into these internet "growth" stocks up here. My broker is getting calls to buy AMZN from grandmothers who refused to buy the entire way up. Psychology finally turned. Smart money is likely selling. I think $1000 would be nice to hit just like 5000 in the NASDAQ 17 years ago, but enter slowly using the methods described.
crazyinvestor
⋅
How can I join your trading room? Does it come with your subscription of key hidden levels? $20 a month?
timwest
⋅
@crazyinvestor, Just come on by. You don't have to subscribe at all. Listen and discuss. Ask questions. Learn about Key Hidden Levels.
crazyinvestor
⋅
@timwest, Thanks for the reply. What do I need to join your trading room?
timwest
⋅
@crazyinvestor, Just stop by - search for "KEY HIDDEN LEVELS" in the chat room list.
oc1champ
⋅
@timwest really awesome looking charts you have, never seen them done this way. I kind of stumbled across this page tonight and now I'm really interested in getting a better grasp of it. Do you have any previous posts or vids where you break down your charts so they're a little easier to understand for a "newbie - ish" trader like myself? :) thanks!
timwest
⋅
@oc1champ, Thanks for the interest and the questions. I have some videos at Youtube if you search for "Tim West TradingView". Also look through my many other posts and posts by @IvanLabrie, who also uses Time@mode. It's a simple "building blocks" method with just a handful of logical rules. No trend-lines. No guessing.