Once Amazon blasted off on its previous report back in October, it kicked off a 15 week rally which ran far beyond the rally that was implied by the previous move from $766 (where it lingered for 17 weeks in 2016 and had a 22 week rally out of that accumulation). A move from $766 to $980 was 29% and the implied rally from $980 was also 29%, but it ran up over 50% (see chart).
Now that $AMZN has reached $1498, the PSR reached 4 times (an extreme reading) while the free cash flow yield has fallen to 1%, which means that the $7 billion in free cash flow is only 1% of the $700 billion in market cap for Amazon. Growth over the coming decade will help drive up that yield, but right now that is the return you would earn if you took Amazon private.
Using the Time@Mode methodology, together with Key Levels stemming from quarterly reports and raw and relative valuation analysis, we can see here that Amazon has "RUN OUT OF TIME" on a weekly basis for this rally and would only expect it to move sideways to down over the upcoming 15 week time frame as a new level of consolidation builds as the fundamentals "catch up".
For now: It is opportunistic to sell short $AMZN with 5%-10% downside targets. Cover and re-short on 75% rebounds as many times as possible for the next 14 weeks.
12:41PM EST February 7, 2018 $1439 last $AMZN
The extreme selloff into the close may lead to a small gap down tomorrow, but a good idea to cover and try again back up 75% retracement of this decline.
The reason for the bounce? Put buyers are paying up BIG to hedge positions now versus last week the cost was low relative to betting on the upside in Amazon. So, I view selloff's as short-lived here.
Tim 10:12PM EST Feb 8th, 2018 $1350.50 last (down from $1440 publication)
Right along the path I outlined.
Quick bounce this morning and back down again.
Feb 9, 2018 12:01PM EST
Big bounce from the low so far after a 12% decline from the sell signal. Look for 50%-75% retracements to sell short again.
Tim 12:51AM EST 2/13/2018
But I don't see that happening without the market dropping a min of 2000 pts which it needs to do. I actually think the market needs to be in the 20000 range to maybe be more reasonably valued.
If the market has been artificially created and supported by the Fed negative interest rates for the past 10 years I think we could actually see a reversal of 10 yrs gain(bubble) when the next black swan event takes place with increasing interest rates, increased federal spending,increased deficit, tax cut(less revenue), and the Fed trying to unwind QE of 4+ trillion. Perfect storm brewing.