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HEAD and Shoulders

FX:AUDCAD   Đô la Úc/Đô la Canada
Waiting for the price to break the upwards sloping trend line and then get a retest as new resistance. We would like that retest to coincide with the TOP of left shoulder and have price move lower. This is one to keep an eye for down the track.

Aussie RBA statement release had already been priced into this market. No breaking news and rates remain on hold in Australia. Rumours of rate hikes now to come later this year in line with US fiscal unwinding. This would put pressure on Australian households with stagnating wage growth and heavily leveraged mortgages in an arguably over heated housing property market.

OPEC and Russia members are "shoulder to shoulder" on wresting back oil from the US. They will cap production pushing prices higher. How does this impact this currency pair? - Canada's economy is reliant on oil production. That production is generally shale oil I believe. So as conventional oil drives higher. It makes shale oil a more viable resource . Hence this may push the Canadian economy along. generally, as oil rises so to does the Canadian economy. Hence this would support the CAD gaining overt the AUD.

Good and Bad thoughts are all welcomed below
Gold and commodities price would have stronger influence on Aud than just oil price?
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gremic tigeraus
@tigeraus - That's correct, my oil idea was more pointing out coming strength for the CAD. However since posting, a friend of a friend has told me of problems in the Canadian housing market as well. The AUD and GOLD are positively correlated currently and as you correctly say, gold moving south would be mirrored on the AUD traditionally. All this said though, recent times have shown disconnects between asset classes that would go hand in hand. So maybe some more thought now needs to go into how we link currencies and which tell tale indicators are now used.
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