Technical thoughts going into today's Aussie data...
The commodity-linked currency began the day on a strong footing, after whipsawing below the 0.79 handle and connecting with a H1 demand base at 0.7882-0.7895 (this was a noted zone for possible longs – well done to any of our readers who managed to take advantage of this area). The move, as you can see, lifted the pair up the H4 mid-level resistance at 0.7950, before collapsing lower in dramatic fashion, ending the day clocking lows of 0.7875.
On the weekly timeframe, there’s room for the sellers to extend as far south as the 2018 yearly opening level at 0.7801. Daily price on the other hand, remains within the lower limits of a daily support area at 0.7897-0.7870 but does look incredibly vulnerable at this point.
Potential trading zones:
Judging by the weakness seen within the daily support area, and room to press lower seen on the weekly timeframe, a short on any solid retest seen at 0.79 on the H4 timeframe (see arrows) could be an option today, targeting the H4 mid-level support at 0.7850, followed closely by daily demand at 0.7807-0.7841 (the next downside target on the daily scale beyond the current daily support area) and then weekly support at 0.7801.
Data points to consider: AU. Retail sales m/m and trade balance at 12.30am; RBA statement and cash rate at 3.30am GMT.
On the weekly timeframe, there’s room for the sellers to extend as far south as the 2018 yearly opening level at 0.7801. Daily price on the other hand, remains within the lower limits of a daily support area at 0.7897-0.7870 but does look incredibly vulnerable at this point.
Potential trading zones:
Judging by the weakness seen within the daily support area, and room to press lower seen on the weekly timeframe, a short on any solid retest seen at 0.79 on the H4 timeframe (see arrows) could be an option today, targeting the H4 mid-level support at 0.7850, followed closely by daily demand at 0.7807-0.7841 (the next downside target on the daily scale beyond the current daily support area) and then weekly support at 0.7801.
Data points to consider: AU. Retail sales m/m and trade balance at 12.30am; RBA statement and cash rate at 3.30am GMT.
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