After the first official trading week of 2018, activities in the market are starting to pick up, and we are seeing volatility coming back.
We are seeing an ideal technical setup on AUD/USD.
In addition, we do have the US Core CPI and Core Retail Sales data coming in on Friday.
The release of these economic data might act as a potential catalyst to strengthen the US Dollar, potentially giving us a nice confluence for the short setup on AUD/USD.
On the AUD/USD H4 chart, price has been ‘crawling’ higher. This is a term that we use to describe price losing momentum as it continues to move higher.
We are also seeing a RSI divergence forming. Adding on to our technical confluence, price has also reached the key fibonacci area between the 100% to 123.6% extension.
All these gave us an ideal technical sell setup on the AUD/USD.
What we need is a potential catalyst to push price down impulsively; and we are expecting the catalyst to come from Friday’s US data.
Core CPI and Retail Sales are forecasted to come in at 0.2% and 0.4% respectively. Should the actual data come in higher than the forecast, we will have a strong reason to take the short trade on AUD/USD, potentially targeting 0.7641 – 0.7685 area.