imkeshav

BCH- The Market Breaker."Remember Remember the 12th of November

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imkeshav Cập nhật   
BITFINEX:BCHUSD   None
I'm putting most of my quick updates/charts on twitter. So please follow me there @imkeshav for updates and questions.

* If you followed my previous posts, our predictions were accurate and we managed to take profits and move 70% into FIAT. 12 hours later the entire market crashed. My vision, strategy and risk management helped here. My articles in yours.org have these details, please take time to read them and let me know if they helped.

twitter.com/imkeshav...s/944252040645033984


"Bitcoin was the market maker"
"Bitcoin cash IS the market breaker. You better notice it!"

When Bitcoin Cash came out of Hibernation & stunned the Crypto world on Nov12, the other alts were quiet & Bitcoin was crashing. Last 2 weeks, Bitcoin & alts had the best run up, BCH was quiet. Then on Dec 20, it rose up like a phoenix to everyone's disbelief, and then it took down the entire market with it.

After the last ATH of $2800 we had a correction for several days and consolidation for 4 weeks before we reached that point. So I don't think after the recent ATH of $4000 we can be done with the correction in a day or 2.

I tried to compare between then and now, and believe the correction will be similar and long, especially after it reached $4000 in matter of a day. However, the chart shows that BCH appears to be stronger than it was. Maybe because BTC looks so week with its overburdened network with 250,000+ unconfirmed transactions. It is taking days to transfer BTC

twitter.com/imkeshav...s/944464994061639680

I included all three scenarios
  • 1) Is the most positive and we can breakout just like that today or tomorrow
  • 2) Here we can keep bouncing within the channel and maybe breakout OR slowly bleed to death like last time, giving false hope to new investors
  • 3) I believe this could be likely as part of a larger ABC correction

I like that RSI is within the channel (bottom) in the below chart, we can maintain a small uptrend while we are within the channel and maybe breakout.


We have resistance at $2700+ and for a breakout we need to breakout properly, or we come back to the support line at $2400, which is not very strong yet and so we can be taken down $200 level or bounce back within the channel.

But there is a new ATH (All time high) after any major correction. And what follows an ABCDE correction? A strong 1-5 impulse bull wave. So I believe this chart represents a correction similar or MORE than last time (2800 to 870) if this was indeed an end to 5th wave.


Be patient and buy the dips. Cash is King. Never put 100% of your money and maintain at 70:30 or 80:20 ratio

All the best! Can't wait for 5k!


Bình luận:
Bham! And scenario 1 it is ;-). However, based on our 1 Day chart, 3000 should be the resistance point (B wave Top) and can come down now to form wave C OR we can get some support at the $2700+ line (Fat green arrow)

OR we moon!

Bình luận:
FOLKS! I'm Buying a lot of BCH now!
Bình luận:
Well Well. It is going to be different now. Last time right after the first major dip, BCH was not able to hold the small green channel and slipped to "slow death".

Now it has jumped out of the channel aggressively. This makes me wonder if we are going to bounce back quicker and better compared to last time OR it could just be a huge fakeout screwing all of us.
That is why my trading bucket is 55:45 (45% cash now). I'm in the game but still have enough cash for a dip.


The 4 Hour charts gives a better perspective, it still looks like an ABC or ABCDE correction. However, we need to observe if C goes below point A or stays above. That determines a bullish or a bearish wedge


Here is a short term idea, will be bounce up from the $2500 support?
Bình luận:
And we are going down to C wave? Anybody took my last update/advice and moved to cash?

Bình luận:
Another idea, will 2400 support hold?
Bình luận:
Someone on twitter pointed this out to me. A large Head & Shoulder pattern maybe. Not very visible in 4 Hour chart though. But I think this is inline with our wave C

Bình luận:
I see a bearish wedge forming. Lets see if it will breakdown and cut through support at @2450


If 2600 support does not hold, we will revisit 2100 and then either bounce up or go further down

Bình luận:
BTCUSD has formed a massive Head an shoulder as well

Bình luận:
Ok we broke upwards from the channel in the short term. This is a good sign

Macro view, Is C correction over?
Bình luận:
Christmas present..are we done with the ABC correction? Look at the pennant
Bình luận:
Hold on! Wait for it!

Bình luận:
Lets see if the support line is holding
Bình luận:

We have more data for comparison now with Nov12 ATH. The trend appears to be much better now.

On Nov12,
- There was a sharp drop to $1087 bottom
- There was a small uptrend (green arrow)
- Followed by a downtrend and major slow death downtrend (Red arrows)
- We reached the absolute bottom within 5 days of the ATH at $887

Now,
- There was a quick drop to $1889
- There was a better & longer uptrend than last time (green arrow)
- Followed by a small downtrend (red arrow) and a longer sideways trend (Orange arrow)
- Today, we have a small downtrend
- However, it has been more than a week and we haven't reached (and may not reach) a lower bottom than $1887

I will continue to monitor the price action. It is hard to predict when the correction/consolidation has ended, so it is always good to have cash in hand
Bình luận:
And we are out. Here is a channel that I observed. Watch for the resistance at $3000, I think we will smash through that though. Also look at the blue channel in the RSI , we breakout of that, then .....

BCHBTC is also looking to be ready for the 5th wave. What a nice coincidence

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