BNC:BLX   BraveNewCoin Liquid Index for Bitcoin
The parabolic move is undoubtedly the most sought after pattern for traders and investors with huge upside in a short space of time with followed by a blow off top.

Typically there are several periods of consolidation or 'bases' which are established with increasing range between each of the moves.
The final phase is a usually the most violent in its upside before a strong correction which breaks several of the previous levels of support.

I think its fair to say Bitcoin             is within such a move and most likely coming to the end.

Im calling top at a maxout of this move being $20k but could end sooner.
A collapse could see bitcoin             return to somewhere between $2 and $3k- i would lean towards $3k

Im certainly not bearish quite yet, but we saw some serious volatility at $10k - imagine what it will be like at $20k.
A lot of people will have made a lot of money and profits will be taken:

Just to put this in to perspective, lets say you bought 100 BTC             at the start of the year for $100k. By $20k/BTC this will be $2m in holdings. This is enough for any average man to retire upon. Watch how quickly the libertarian hodl attitude melts away when they are literally kissing goodbye to their lottery ticket. The panic will be significant and is probably underestimated due to the euphoric feeling we all have today.

My advice would be not to short this beast. There is plenty of potential to nearly double in price. Take some profits on the way up.. You can’t go bust by doing that.

Hope you found this useful.
All the best.
Bình luận: i didnt mean for doomsday to be Dec 25th ;D
Bình luận: Here is another idea i posted recently which concurs with the celing on this chart.

I am not saying this is the asoloute top, but i will be very cautious above these levels.

Bình luận: Dumpage has commenced
Bình luận: If we break down:

Bình luận: Opposing argument is that this also happened after the epic 5-3k dump.
You need to be on your toes to take action whether youre long or short!

Bình luận: Here's some possible outcomes of this correction

Bình luận:
Bình luận: just to be clear we have not "...broken several of the previous levels of support" in fact, we have broken none.
Bình luận: 7.5k broken - next legit support at 5k.. although as i keep saying, if the market maker wants blood, this is the level to blow through and create true capitulation.
Bình luận: Trying to keep things in one place, but keep forgetting..

Bình luận: I dont believe there are many people buying now. There are some of the better traders remaining and able to manage 10% daily swings but the rest are either shaken out or they are liquidated. If the market maket has accumulated enough BTC it wont take alot to push us to 5k, which if it were to break, we will complete the dump to 3k. I personally hope it happens because it means i can reaccumulate more btc cheaper.
Bình luận: Some other commentary which is useful here is to remind ourselves of the fundimentals at play; namely the cost to produce a Bitcoin.

Clearly this is a difficult thing to model and i will have a go at working out the weighted average cost at some point.

Im attaching a link below to some work which was done relatively recently to work out the cost of production. The Chinese miners are looking at c. $3-4k marginal cost to produce.

Bearing this in mind and just thinking logically; from a purely finance point of view, what a prudent mining company (btc or other) would do when planning production, is to hedge future production plans either partially or in full via futures markets or swap contracts. I have experience in this field as i used to do exactly this when working in finance for a coke and coal production company. If a company has committed to the investment of the capital required to produce the bitcoins (i.e. the miners) then they will short the futures market agressively, particulally when the futures prices are greatly above the cost of production in order to lock in gaurenteed gains. This has particular consiquenses when there is also other supply side issues like the mt Gox coins and demand side issues like the public losing interest due to dwindling prices.
It is reasonable to assume that there is a floor price which will be met in a market which is largely dictated by supply. Miners will contract their supply somewhat if the marginal cost then begins to exceed production.. simple economics therefore would suggest that there will be a self corrective mechanism which would keep the floor price around the cost of production which by all accounts appears to be $3-4k.

For this reason alone, this is a great place to have speculative bids in my opinion.
i dont understand why MM will push the price down if they have accumulated enough BTCs... They want to shake weak hands not damage BTC market and wait 2 more years at 3k before going up... what am i not seeing?
Phản hồi
@rudius, If MMs have accumulated enough BTC, now they can offload at the current price initiating a cascading sell-off, because few people are buying as Phil mentions in his latest comment. This will push the price down to 3-5k range where the MM can re-accumulate. With BTC fundamentals in perfect order, and next halvening around the corner, MMs can sit back after this epic macro accumulation phase and then distribute at the next halvening.

Another thing to consider is this SEC regulatory crack down which could bring down ICOs, altcoins etc. which will in turn bring Bitcoin down to some extent with it. So getting out now would be well-timed also. The situation with the SEC might be enough to sustain the 3-5k lows to allow MMs to really accumulate the bottom without pushing price up over a good few months.

This is my theory anyways. I'm not trading any of it btw. Too much of a pussy to risk losing any BTC.
+1 Phản hồi
filbfilb PRO FreSh_PrincE
@FreSh_PrincE, agree!
+1 Phản hồi
rudius PRO FreSh_PrincE
@FreSh_PrincE, thank you, very clear explanation. It makes a lot of sense now. I never thought that MM could be accumulating in order to push the price down.
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elshanti PRO FreSh_PrincE
@FreSh_PrincE, agreed
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I agree there are not many buyers left. Are there sellers left or they are mainly HODLers?
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filbfilb PRO landabaso
@landabaso, the miners need to sell to cover their running costs and if big institutional holders want to push the price down, they will! traders alone cant keep this up. myself and non of the people i know in crypto who were buying over the last three years had bought anything since last year, and wont do so until its cheap again as weve made our money and dont need the risk.. unless we look like breaking all time highs again.
+2 Phản hồi
landabaso filbfilb
Exactly @filbfilb You and other crypto professional traders won't be buying again until the price is cheap. I understand. But I bet you also already sold whatever you wanted to sell. My friends and me are not traders. We bought on September and subsequent months. I know some of them panicked sold already and the rest don't care anymore.
Still, you could be very right. I just don't know. I respect your analysis and will be checking whatever you post. I will buy some more if the price gets to 3K but won't sell either.
Thanks for keeping us updated!
+1 Phản hồi
EspressoDopio landabaso
@landabaso, I have a number of nervous mates who bought btc few months back. Already in losses, they are thinking that they will hodl.
This tells me that we haven't see the capitulation yet...
+2 Phản hồi
landabaso landabaso
@filbfilb, BTCUSDLONGS at ATH. Looks like these buys cannot only be traders. Chances for another historical pump from here to August until the final crash?
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