Today I want to look at the bigger picture to put in context the recent Bitcoin move.
In the weekly chart, we see that the bias is bearish. The lows at 3100 fail to qualify as a THE BOTTOM by any sort of crypto standard: a) Lack of volume b) Lack of strong bounce c) Lack of institutional blueprint d) NVT still optimistic
The bottom would be more credible if it coincides with a test of this line, as happened in 2015.
I'm plotting Bitstamp and BNC series, and we can see there a huge void between the current price location and the place where the All-Time Mean sits.
At Bitstamp, Bitcoin consolidated above the All-Time mean during 8 months before confirming the bull trend.
At the BraveNewCoin series (which is the longest one available in Tradingview), we see that the $150 spike bounced from the All-Time Mean.
Therefore, this is a legit line to be taken into consideration to prove the bottoming. Most of the assets have a natural tendency to revisit this line along high time frame cycles (unless they are heavily manipulated).
Additionally, the NVT is sitting at a similar range level (80-100) than did at 2015 before crashing below 50 and signal the low.
Will bitcoin test the All-Time Mean during this cycle? Well, we don't know that for sure but certainly the chances are there. Bitcoin has been unable to fulfill any solid bottoming criteria and this one looks like could be the missing one that could trigger heavy volume and flash crash action.
Very nice chart! Thank you so much for all your work. :)
moviestar
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hm NVT still in red and green has shown in this (still) bear(?) market yet...
dacto
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great indicators added to my favs!
Dr-White-Btc
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Great Job and convincing argument
robinn08
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It seems that in the NVT indicator settings, there i box named "Force daily view across all time frames". If you uncheck this setting, the NVT paints a completely different picture. Since you have created the indicator, it would be much appreciated if you could explain why you have chosen not to untick this setting on a weekly timeframe.
gliderfund
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@robinn08, Yes, this checkbox was added to prevent misuse of the indicator. The original formula contemplates only Daily Time Frame to average the network reads. Therefore I wanted to make sure that by default the user would get the original read regardless of the time frame you are plotting.
If we disable that checbox, we override the default behavior and NVT would plot differently in higher Time Frames.
Hope that helps!
Bullbrain
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Good work on that indicator, it saves me calculating the total amout of trading days and puting it in the moving average