Route A takes us to 4.9k (75% from all time high) then back up to the top of the channel, before visiting the bottom.
Route B takes us down straight away to the bottom of the channel at 2.8k (86% from all time high), then it will rest and gather strength for later.
Route C is all other routes, and is much more likely! ;-)
Clearly, this is all just guesswork, but I found it interesting to fit long term curves on the data to see where we are within our historical ranges, and how that might affect shorter term choices.
Good luck.
Bình luận
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It's tracking nicely down to 4.9k as per this idea. I am now thinking Option B is looking more likely from there. If we get there I think we will have a really good bounce,.. bull mode engaged, lambos configured, then the final test of reaching escape velocity,... before either moon, or 3k.
This is one of the top chart to know. It's going !
elshanti
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tomm.giannessi23
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I like this chart!
I think option B would be a disaster but not the most probable to me. Total Market cap should be down to 120-130 Billion $ if every alt goes down to -66%.
Nothing impossible though.
Option A would mean down to 4956 and then up to the upper trendline right?
Are you buying now or you'll wait the 5000$ level?
darobsta
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@Tomm.giannessi23, option B would not be a disaster. Things would just go quiet for a bit and there would be time to accumulate.
The price level of 4.9k is only based on repetition of 2013... Not Real TA! It's very possible that the Feb low of 5.9k fulfils that part of the scenario.
I am not buying until I know which way we are going. I will miss out on either profit or loss short term, but will profit in the end.
P.s. Option A will eventually hit the bottom too.
yamne
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Thanks for your chart it looks great :) What are your thoughts after 1 month? Where are we
darobsta
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@yamne, hi. I am 50:50 on this right now. If it breaks 12k then we are much more likely to go A.
HNTrader
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Nice chart. First one I have seen with 2011 bubble top included. I really hope scenario A is still in play... otherwise it seems that the wait for next bubble top will be 6.4 years not 2.5 years as I thought initially.