BPCL – Is a Double Combo Unfolding?

After reviewing the recent price action in BPCL, the structure that initially looked like a potential impulsive rally has revealed a different internal behaviour upon closer inspection. The key deciding factor was the momentum profile at the recent high near 381.55. Instead of showing the typical loss of strength expected at the end of a Wave 5, the RSI remained firm with no bearish divergence, which is a classic characteristic of a C-wave termination, not an impulsive fifth wave.
This prompted a reassessment of the entire advance.

Revisiting the Structure

• From the March low near 234.01, price advanced in a clear two-stage corrective manner. Both segments carried zigzag characteristics, aligning better with a W–X–Y double combo rather than an impulsive 1–2–3–4–5 sequence.
  
• Wave W ended at 234.01 after a clean A-B-C decline.
  
• The strong recovery that followed subdivided into two smaller zigzags, forming Wave X, which topped out at 381.55.
  
• The RSI behaviour at this point supported the corrective interpretation, showing strong momentum without the exhaustion typically seen at the end of an impulsive structure.
  

This combination lends weight to the view that the rally into 381.55 was corrective in nature.

Current Outlook – Wave Y in Progress
If the 381.55 high is accepted as the completion of Wave X, the decline from that point can be viewed as the early stages of Wave Y, which typically unfolds as another A-B-C structure.

• The initial decline resembles a developing Wave A.
  
• A corrective Wave B rebound can follow.
  
• A deeper Wave C may then complete the entire double combo, with possible downside levels aligning toward the 240–260 region depending on the depth of the final leg.
  

These projected swings are guidelines, not certainties, and the internal structure of each leg must be monitored.

Invalidation Level
The critical level for this view is clear:
A decisive move above 381.55 invalidates the entire bearish W–X–Y expectation.

If price breaks and sustains above this level, the corrective interpretation collapses and a new bullish sequence would be favoured instead.

Conclusion
The internal characteristics of the rally—especially the RSI behaviour—support the idea that BPCL is unfolding a double combo correction rather than a completed impulsive advance. As long as the 381.55 level holds, the risk of further decline remains open, with a potential full completion of Wave Y lower.

Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.