BTCDOWN is now currently moving into a descending triangle. Based on 5th rule attempt breakout, BTCDOWN has been rejected for 4 times now. It means that next attempt is really important and it could cause a breakout on triangle's higher line. I'm predicting that there will be another leg up for BTC and we may see the dip on next weekend ! ( sooner or later ) Now there are 3 reasons except BTCDOWN chart that makes BTC more bearish on my side !
1️⃣ Bitcoin Balances on Exchanges 2️⃣ Exchange BTC Futures Open Interest 3️⃣ BTC Long-Short Ratio
1️⃣ Bitcoin Balances on Exchanges BTC's balances on exchanges is increasing day by day, And so; We had +60,627 BTC's balances on exchanges in last 7 days and +7,486 BTC's in last 24Hrs. As I mentioned before on my last posts about BTC; Market maker will wait for a valuable supply to cause a drop on BTC. And according to BTC's historical drops DATA; All drops happened after 7 days (averaged) of huge inflows on exchanges. So we have the Inflow in past days but there is a problem on Futures open interest, According to the chart of Exchange BTC Futures Open Interest; Open interests has decreased about 13% and this makes market makers to wait for a better supply zone.
2️⃣ Exchange BTC Futures Open Interest BTC's open interest has been dropped for 13% in past 6 days, This is happened when we have more inflows in exchanges, Means that low volume traders are waiting for a confirmation on chart. However most of the price level drop is caused by BTC's recent dive ! But there is still a space that need to fill by weak hands. According to this chart, On last 2 days we saw another minor dive on BTC's chart, But interest has been increased for 3% ! It mentions that many of people are considering current drop as a last dive on BTC. This data has been confirmed by BTC's Long-Short Ratio chart ( 0.5% recovery on Longs in past 3 days ). 📌 Remember that many of short positions are created by Asset managers.
3️⃣ BTC Long-Short Ratio According to today's LONG/SHORT Ratio chart, positions are neutral bullish but the size of positions is neutral bearish ! It means that low volume traders believed that BTC won't go lower ( at-least for now ) but Institutional considered that BTC have more space to drop before any 2nd leg up. Now that's my thought, Market makers will let the market to have a correction and reach above 52K again; After that we might see more winning on position size and it would flip into a neutral bullish. Actually I'm predicting a strategy by the last repetition on May .04... We had current rates on May .04; Also we have similar inflows to exchanges ! Market makers will make this opportunity for positions size to grow again, Then after a fake out on MA 100 it will drop more... 🔰 Based on given data, This is the most possible direction for BTC :
📌 Key words : - Whales are depositing their assets into exchanges - Asset managers are more bearish than bullish - Positions are neutral bullish but positions size is neutral bearish - BTCDOWN had 4 rejected attempts to break descending triangle's higher line; So based on 5th rule breakout, We may see the breakout on next attempt
🔴 Remember that, All of the given information are provided by @Helical_Trades and we are still predicting on our last idea about BTC :
📌 Also there is a high chance for bears to lead the pair to lower levels from current rate if any daily candle closed below 46K.
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Attention: this isn't financial advice we are just trying to help people on their own vision.
I really enjoy your write up. How you analyse/explain MM/whale patterns is what I -try- to examine with my analysis but I think I have a lot of maturing to do, maybe just need more experience.
Where do you get your information on futures data? I use cryptoquant for some other market data.. but I think the futures/options traders really drive the monthly Bitcoin price cycle. This will possibly be the 5th month in the past 6 months to see week 2 downtrend and week 4 uptrend for Bitcoin/market.
What are your thoughts on the bull cycle? I have been watching the reserves (like you) and notice that a lot of people are still holding, no massive selloff. With industry investing so much, could this be a case of no blowoff top and industry just holds long term with no intention to sell out at the top-- maybe just sell a little as needed to cushion their earnings reports? Its hard to read the long term picture imo, so trying to decide whether to sell out of my alts... I think the market is too fearful at the moment.
Where do you get your information on futures data? I use cryptoquant for some other market data.. but I think the futures/options traders really drive the monthly Bitcoin price cycle. This will possibly be the 5th month in the past 6 months to see week 2 downtrend and week 4 uptrend for Bitcoin/market.
What are your thoughts on the bull cycle? I have been watching the reserves (like you) and notice that a lot of people are still holding, no massive selloff. With industry investing so much, could this be a case of no blowoff top and industry just holds long term with no intention to sell out at the top-- maybe just sell a little as needed to cushion their earnings reports? Its hard to read the long term picture imo, so trying to decide whether to sell out of my alts... I think the market is too fearful at the moment.