BTCUSD update: The initial bearish trend line is clearly broken, and an inside bar has appeared (previous candle). All of this is happening around the 6805 reversal zone boundary. This market is still in the process of setting up for a broader move higher in my opinion. Here is the swing trade trigger to look for: Long 6900 Stop 6488 Target 7460. R:R Approx 1:1.
These subtle changes should not be all that surprising. They are unfolding within the largest support zone relative to this market since the sub 200 lows. The 8171 to 4983 support zone (.618 area of entire bullish structure) has been in play since the 6K low in February. As I have written in previous reports, a broader bottom is a process. IF price breaks the 7492 minor resistance (.382 of recent bearish swing), that will provide confirmation that a broader bullish move is in progress. A broader move higher from current levels can lead this market back to the low 8Ks at minimum over the next couple of weeks.
6897 is the inside bar high and serves as a long trigger for a swing trade, while the 6650 and 6500 levels serve as stops. The reward risk is still very favorable to the bullish side because the minimum target is the 7492 level. So you are risking 300 to 400 points to potentially make around 600 at least. All this market needs is a catalyst or some typical tech drama to motivate a short squeeze.
Price action is leaning toward the bullish side in a way that is not obvious to the crowd. This is what opportunities look like. As always, these signs can be negated by any bearish surprise, but I think the potential is very limited. This market can still retest the 6204 and even 6K, so it is important to always be prepared for those scenarios. Speculating is not about precision, it is about constantly adjusting.
In summary, price action is coiling around a reversal zone boundary near a major low within a broader support zone. You can't ask for a more attractive situation that isn't obvious to the market crowd. The appearance of the inside bar provides technical structure for a long trigger with well defined risk. If this market starts breaking near by resistance levels, it will be confirming a broad double bottom which can eventually lead back to 10K, it is just a matter of time and catalyst. The price action story is saying that the shorts are vulnerable in an area that still looks bearish to the untrained eye. Learn to recognize the subtle signs, not the obvious ones and one way to accomplish that is to acknowledge what the market is NOT doing, rather than always focusing on what it is.
Questions and comments welcome. (See trade signal updates on S.C.).
Mark! I have followed you for quite some time off of TV. You and Tom are the go to guys in this market in my opinion. I've noticed you're usually a little more on the bearish/conservative side, and Tom is a little more aggressive.
By watching you two and what you both say, my suspicions are confirming. AMAZING content, like always. I will use your analysis to help me with mine. Thank you very kindly for your service to this market. Let's make some money together today, yeah!?
<3
MarcPMarkets
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The swing trade long with the 6900 trigger was activated yesterday. Even though the stop is at 6488, this market is not cooperating. As I write this the current candle has taken out the previous candle low which is a bearish sign. These markets change fast, I am still bullish on the big picture, but my goal is to control risk. This market can go as low at the 6380s before reversing again so if you are in the swing trade from 6900 you have to decide what is better for you. One way to reduce risk is to sell a smaller portion of your position for a loss, since the market is not cooperating, and then add it back if the bullish signs return. In this scenario, if price continues lower, you lose less. If it goes higher, you are still in a portion of the position, and you can always add to make up for the small loss taken. Trading and speculation has nothing to do with charts, and everything to do with risk management and adjusting to new information as it becomes available. A chart is simply one source of information that we can use to make adjustments. Any adjustment that we make will be posted on S.C.
trebuchet
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@MarcPMarkets, Nice call. I went in at 6914 based around your logic but out again at 6944 about 2 hours before your update. Decided to set alerts for 6700 and 7000 instead (with 30s duration to make sure I heard them!) and wait to decide which way to jump if volume looked right. Trouble was, I had my headphones plugged in and unfortunately decided a make a coffee when the pump started. Most unfortunate timing. Still, I suspect there are a lot out there far worse off than me and my lost opportunity!
dimisus
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thx
ironplums
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Always appreciate your insight!
davidtrading50
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I like the way how you think.
Differently than the crowd.
Good job.
Fosom
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I love you <3 I followed your advice. Sold at 7,35 when I was sleeping. But still VERY good profit
heartless
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thanks marc
dnldnz
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Legendary Marc! Good job, congratulations
haver
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Marc, why enter a trade with R:R Approx 1:1? I disagree, respectfully.
By watching you two and what you both say, my suspicions are confirming. AMAZING content, like always. I will use your analysis to help me with mine. Thank you very kindly for your service to this market. Let's make some money together today, yeah!?
<3