BTCUSD update: Price pushes into middle of broader support zone and is held up at the 9683 reversal zone boundary. In situations like this, recognizing the magnitude of the larger time frame levels allows for more effective decision making.
Small time frames look bearish. The move off of the minor resistance zone (11871 to 12316) looks dramatic compared to recent price action. Meanwhile price is not really going anywhere significant. For 15 days, this market has made little progress in either direction but gives the illusion that it is. Welcome to a more balanced market.
This price action is for the realm of the day trader. Small movements, reversals at minor levels and no big picture progress. In order to capitalize effectively on this price action, a great deal of skill is required. I am not day trading these markets, and I refuse to trade them of margin which means I cannot short them. So I base my perspective on the big picture and look to position myself to capitalize on the broader bullish move IF it returns.
Here is what I see: Price is gyrating between 10988 and 8656 (.618 area of broader bullish structure). It is also staying above the 9683 reversal zone boundary. In addition to that, based on the recent swing low established at 9989, there is now another reversal zone boundary at 9295. Within this area there are also a series of bullish pin bars that also happen to be within a minor support zone 10534 to 9989 (.618 area of recent bullish swing). As bearish as the most recent swing looks, (especially on smaller time frames) until price can work its way below all of this supportive structure, I am staying long and only looking to add.
Do not get your perspectives mixed up. I keep getting messages from people asking me why I am bullish when this market is so bearish. The time frames that look so bearish (1 hour or lower) do not carry much weight for my trading time horizon. I am looking for the broader move, and based on the current price action, we are just testing lows of a large magnitude support. Do not over react to dramatic movements often accompanied by extreme hype. Zoom out and start asking questions like: Is price breaking major supports? Is it making new lows with conviction? And most important: Have any major long term fundamentals changed? If the answer is no, like in this case in my opinion, then it becomes easier to see how these lows are a welcome buying opportunity for longer time horizon strategies like swing and position trades.
In summary, before making judgements or decisions, you must first have a point of reference. For me, I am staying focused on the big picture because that is the time horizon I am positioned on. Having this perspective allows me to see through the immediate noise that many get caught up in. At this point, I am waiting for candlestick reversal formations or price patterns to develop in this area in order for me to buy more. IF the market keeps selling (below 8656) then I will not take any action and hold what I have. The only reason why this works is because I am not using margin and my sizing is carefully calculated. Like I have written in previous reports, it is just a matter of bullish catalysts taking hold and driving the next leg. See beyond the herd, do not be part of it.
"Welcome to a more balanced market" Couldn't agree more!
gpurri
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@goldbug1, I also agree with this. Thumbs up to the futures contract.
BRRD
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@gpurri, futures will need A LOT more activity to become relevant.
There's a reason for the lack of activity: no one has a f***ing clue how to value Bitcoin. And I don't think there will be any good models coming soon, tbh.
This thing is just nuts from any normal perspective. It has the potential to blow far past any previous historical bubbles. Forget stocks; all you need for Bitcoin is a credit card and the internet, no matter what your personal financial situation.
BUT... regulation. I can fully understand recent moves by China and now India (qz.com/1195316/budget-2018-busts-bitcoin-arun-jaitley-has-just-killed-indias-cryptocurrency-party/) to snuff out crypto on a national level. As long as it is impossible to value from an economic perspective the safest (and currently most intuitive) way to look at it is a purely speculative affair. But while speculation may be a useful thing in markets for assets that fundamentally assist the economy, pure speculation by itself is extremely dangerous for the economy. Look at the financial crisis of the last decade - speculation ran out of control on a global level.
So with such a unique combination of factors - the most provably scarce asset (who knows how much gold or diamonds there are to be mined in the future); only useful for speculation; accessible to anyone with a credit card anywhere in the world; international fear on a government level - I think for the foreseeable future Bitcoin will remain anything but a "balanced market".
KISStheProfit
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Dear Marc,
I have been watching so many wash trades (spoofing) with pairs ETH-USDT, BTC_USDT, NEO_USDT. That was how the price probably have been pumped by Bitfinex, and later on the other exchanges with the domino effect. In January, it was obvious that price was kept with bots small offering and huge walls both sides. Even, the breakout so much expected was driven by bots in simillar way to the extent were real investors were involved thinking that market is really goind up. Let be honest - BTC was pumped and drained. TRX was pumped and drained, XRP was pumped and drained, LTC, similar. Is it a coinsidence Charlie Lee sold all LTC 2 days before the previous crash? Actually, market was drained a crypto went to fiat with billions. All coins I mention are from top 10. I even do not mention all the ICOs that also drained billions, and said good buy to the investors. The exchanges are in that game and nobody knows were it will go! Even in the time when you, the TOP traders were promoting BUYing, most of the exchanges were dominated by bots moving the price up, to catch small fish, and they did!
CryptoKid26
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@KISStheProfit, "In a Time of Universal Deceit — Telling the Truth Is a Revolutionary Act" More people need to be aware of what goes on behind the scenes of this market. USDT goes a ton of Liquidity will be Drained!
josephtse
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I think you need to be shorting rallies still until like 7500. I will be re-shorting at 10900/11000 range, if it even can make it that high. We are clearly in a bear trend. Perhaps you should going long useful coins like ETH instead, which actually have real world applications. Bitcoin is nothing but a shell game. Tether carries only 10% capital reserves on their books but hides that fact from the public which is a violation of securities ethics. They are most certainly misappropriating customer funds.
therandomwalk
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@josephtse, where do you get the Tether info pls . is it factually written somewhere?
KaupoT
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Hi
Cryptocurrency DOWNTERND END is near!!! Just HODL or buy .
The last major downtrend line is so near .
It could end sooner if we all push to 13500 and downtrend is broken .
This time no more selling bitcoin or buying other altcoins,
Also ignor all bad media news.
Ignor altcoins until bitcoin is more than 20 000$ again.
Then your dreamed cryptomarket can run again. :)
I believe it.
Like i believe in Alan who made the buy in wall as it is.
Rockhunt
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"See beyond the herd, do not be part of it." Love it and agree. However regarding fundamentals... BTC has taken a lot of hits: transaction cost/speed, btc payments in Steem canceled as at other places, market dominance went to around 30%, you can trade against, ETH now at some big exchanges, mining difficulty is severely up, BTC credit cards canceled and lets not even talk about new and disabled Facebook crypto ads. Despite these I am also bullish on BTC but I think it needs a fundamental positive hit which is reflected by the news too...
milanjelic
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@MarcPMarkets So, what made you change your mind?
You were bullish till yesterday.
Now, suddently, you are bearish.
How come?
Regards.