H1 were we have bullish divergence which could be the first sign's that H4 wave Y could be coming to an end.
H4 we have no bullish divergence so I'm not expecting the D1 internal C wave up to start from this low (see BTCUSD D1 Long Term EW Analysis idea). I think we will be seeing the start of H4 correction up before more downside.
If I'm correct and we are at the start of the H4 correction it could be quite choppy for the next few months.
You can look for buys on the lower time frames but be sure to move to BE ASAP as I expect it will be choppy going off previous price action.
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BTCUSD D1 Long Term EW Analysis. checkout the idea detail's and update's for the complete picture. thank's
Bình luận
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BTCUSD H1 Complex correction up. Checkout the idea detail's and update's for the complete picture. Thanks
Hi there! Is there anything of note that changed in your analysis recently? Perhaps somewhere between October and November? Your accuracy has gone through the roof! Maybe just ebb and flow?
Following. Thx for the predictions!
Boon2
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@befunkt, Thank's for your comment, No nothing has changed in the way I analyze the chart's since I got on TV a couple year's back, I have only just began posting idea's again over the last few month's.
Here's a couple idea's i posted earlier in the year that played nicely and I done well off. As you can see they got very few view's or likes. Maybe that's why you think my analysis has changed?
befunkt
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@Boon2, Sorry, I didn't frame the nature of my question properly. I often go back in people's history just to get a sense of their batting-average, and to look for trends in how often a person will get accurate certain types of analysis and methods. Very interesting stuff, e.g. how often an EW person will get certain waves right/wrong, get stopped out on certain waves, etc.
After checking out your history, I just noticed that somewhere in October, you had a sequence of inaccurate predictions, and shortly after that, you have a remarkably high % of accuracy. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 70-80% 'correct' predictions, with the majority of the difference being flat trading ranges that haven't played out yet and could still prove to be correct.
All that, and I was just curious if something changed. :)
befunkt
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@Boon2, Another example of this, with one of my fav authors on TradingView, @tntsunrise - I've begun to make predictions (not public ones, yet..) based on when tntsunrise posts trades that have very specific setups. This is based on 1. the fact that tntsunrise has very consistent accuracy, and 2. certain trade setups that tntsunrise posts have a much higher probability of playing out as predicted, and some setups of his almost always get stopped-out.
Just an abstraction of data.
Boon2
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@befunkt, Yes I don't follow the bloke you mentioned but just a quick look at his chart's and we have a very different way to analyzing the market. His last D1 BTC he was looking for the buy and I was looking for the low to be broken as seen in my D1 analysis in this idea for and example.
As for my trades in October, I put out my idea's when I see a potential structure. This idea of the H4 correction was more to warn people that price is going to be choppy and to not just jump into the market blindly thinking they have picked a bottom and were going to break the top from this low. I don't trade the H4 chart's just look for the direction.
This H4 structure may and most likely will become more complex, know one knows what structure we will end up with ahead of time like many of my higher TF ideas in October. All I'm pretty sure about at this stage on this idea is were in a correction and not a reversal that I can tell.
I try and update my ideas as price play's out and I think i'm getting a bit better at doing that as time goe's bye but my main priority is to manage my open position's rather than update an idea or publish a new one if you get my drift.
fractal72
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Well, we will see how the A-B-C will be formed. One question: do you mind checking the 2013 dec - 2015 october timeframe on Bitstamp daily or weekly? It seems to me that time (the last time in this magnitude) the C leg was completely rejected and did not formed.
Boon2
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@fractal72, Sorry my chart doesn't go back that far, My chart start's at Jan 2016
Following. Thx for the predictions!