A break of the 11k level increases the likely hood that the correction is over and we have started wave 5 of the overall super cycle. A break of 14.5k and we can conclude the correction is over and look to make a final rally including a new All Time High before any significant correction. As I mentioned a couple days ago I do not use stop losses and I also do not just sell at targets. I believe Richard Dennis, one of the Greats, mentioned in an interview (I can not find the exact quote so I did not put it in quotes) The problem with traders is they exit too early often missing huge gains in the market. The problem with Investors is they often hold to long erasing the gains they had. The intent of the 70/30 portfolio is to avoid both of these issues.
The reason I have not closed the trade even though it hit the target level is simple. We are likely in a 3rd wave. I want to be long through third waves and not start closing trades and shaving off in 5th waves not 3rd. So there is no reason to sell here. Markets pullback and take breathers. A pullback to the 9100-9500 level is possible as these are the 0.382 and of the previous movement. Mid term I am looking at a target level of 10925-11335 for completion of this move, but we may adjust as the market proceeds.
The on the 8 hour is testing and consolidating around the 60 level. A fail of 50 MAY signal that we fell into a bull trap. However a breakout of 60 we likely test 80+. Bull equities trade between 40-80 and bear between 30-60. So we are not out of the woods yet, but weekends are historically strong for Bitcoin' though they have struggled as of late.
Bottom Line: If you are trading in and out, in and out, you are likely chasing the market. Traders have a tendency to sell winning trades too early. The market is slowly stepping to the upside and we need to keep the broader term picture in perspective and not have an impulse to buy and sell on the way up. I'm simply staying LONG here!
For the record I drew the pattern there as a reminder that the trend creates the pattern and not vice versa. Patterns must be taken in the context of the overall market conditions and overall market sentiment. What we were seeing was a slow change in sentiment off an extreme low. With that said that is a beautiful pattern!
The long-term channel you are using in the last update dates only from June, or?
I'm asking because if we draw a truly long-term trend channel from last 3-5 years, current BTC price is way north of the multi year trend channel... What's your thoughts on this?