Yesterday we identified a potential opportunity to go long on a neckline break. That break didn't hold so I didn't trade.
Today we are now heading South. Unfortunately I was engaged and missed the rejection of the neckline and then the breaking of the 1HR 50EMA. That would have been a great opportunity to enter a short. To enter a short, in the next 1-4 hours, I'm looking for a retrace back to and rejection of the 1HR 50EMA (which would also go through the 4HR 50EMA). This might not materialise and could be quite a short trade which is closed out at a reversal at one of the long areas:
- the cross over of the long term diangonal resistance turned support (dotted blue)
- the upward green diagonal support at around $8150
- or both of the above if they align
- the accumulation zone at 7800 which is just above the 0.5 Fib
I am open to the market showing me otherwise, until then I have the conviction that ETH and BTC will go through more of these super cycles and swap No1 position several times over the coming year or two and we are in wave 3 of ETHs current growth relative to BTC.
However, as my other posts explain, even now I am hedging that we could be in a wave 4 on ETHBTC or it breaking down completely. I am not ruling out that BTC could impulse up to $50k before ETH moves again. I am relatively balanced and looking for the market to show its hand before I commit but are slightly more prepared to act on my conviction that ETH is in a wave 3.