This is a post so I could do a self evaluation of my trades. I'm a long term bitcoin bull but trading this as a bear market. Overall, I have done extremely well but want to look for areas of improvement while also providing information that is educational to new traders. Links to these updates here:
www.tradingview.com/u/rzmb44/
Nov 20 - Bitcoin Compared to Silver Parabola
I started moving to cash.
Dec 8 - Bitcoin Bull Flag
Short update where I was looking for a break up or down out of this channel.
Dec 22 - Bitcoin Price over Next 3-10 Days
I traded a dead cat bounce targeting $15400-$16500 area and suggested selling that area. Expected we could retest lows in 3-10 days. We retested lows 8 days later.
Dec 23 - Support Becomes Resistance
Show that area of resistance which was the top of the this short move up.
Dec 24 - Update on Bitcoin Bearish Move
I was still cautious. Not short but concerned that it would fall below $11000
Dec 28 - Bitcoin in Danger Area
Made a move up and then fell back below that line quickly. I really wasn't trading this much during the holidays.
Dec 29 - Bitcoin in Dangerous Area Again
More warnings and updating the key support lines, but in cash still was hoping to see bitcoin make a move.
Dec 30 - Bitcoin: The Battle to Stay Above $10k Begins
Still in cash. No decisions made, looking for some signs of a strength to see if we can make a move. So my mistake here was not going long.
Jan 12 - Bitcoin Getting to Another Critical Level
Generally in cash but identified clear bullish and bearish cases.
Jan 20 - Bitcoin at Critical Level Again ---- *****MY DECISION TO SHORT*****
I finally received enough information to tell me that Bitcoin was going down (6 weeks after the top).
Feb 2 - Did Bitcoin Just Bottom: - ****LONG AT $7600
I added when we moved to $9000 and dipped to the .618 at $8200. My average was $8300.
Feb 3 - Trading the Bitcoin Reversal
"I'm taking partial profits from $9200 to $9500 from my average buy around $8300."
I was looking to get short at $10k but it never happened.
Feb 9 - Trading the Bitcion Reversal Take 2
My first buy was just below $8000 on that pullback, but that turned out to be a good trade. I ended up taking partial profits
Feb 17 - Concerns About Bull Trap
Bitcoin was back at $11000 and I was showing a chart of Bitcoin in 2014 where it had a monster bull trap.
Feb 20 Close to the top ($11700) - *****One of the RARE traders to short
Everyone was super bullish but I shorted this perfectly
Feb 26 - Bitcoin Turning
In this post I just talk about going long until $9800 where I did end up taking profits on my long position and started looking to reshort. I should have held a bit longer.
Mar 5 - Understanding the Bitcion Parabola
Important post where I expand on history of Parabolas.
I attempted several shorts from $10k to $11700 and got stopped out before I eventually was able to get into a good short position at $11500.
March 18 - Today is an Incredibly Important Day for Bitcoin
We were at a critical level with some support so I attempted to go long but stopped out.
March 29 - With Bitcoin Expect the Unexpected
Overall I didn't trade much in March, but I was looking for a bounce here. I was cautious but eventually recognized accumulation and went long at $6500. Called the short squeeze.
At this point, I'm long and still evaluating. I'm expecting to signs of weakness in 3-10 days where I will reshort. My biggest mistakes were taking profits and not letting trades work longer. So I don't want to get to eager to go short. It is possible that bottom is in but I would need to see more signs to stay long. If the bear market continues I will update with a part 2 from this point.
www.tradingview.com/u/rzmb44/
Nov 20 - Bitcoin Compared to Silver Parabola
I started moving to cash.
Dec 8 - Bitcoin Bull Flag
Short update where I was looking for a break up or down out of this channel.
Dec 22 - Bitcoin Price over Next 3-10 Days
I traded a dead cat bounce targeting $15400-$16500 area and suggested selling that area. Expected we could retest lows in 3-10 days. We retested lows 8 days later.
Dec 23 - Support Becomes Resistance
Show that area of resistance which was the top of the this short move up.
Dec 24 - Update on Bitcoin Bearish Move
I was still cautious. Not short but concerned that it would fall below $11000
Dec 28 - Bitcoin in Danger Area
Made a move up and then fell back below that line quickly. I really wasn't trading this much during the holidays.
Dec 29 - Bitcoin in Dangerous Area Again
More warnings and updating the key support lines, but in cash still was hoping to see bitcoin make a move.
Dec 30 - Bitcoin: The Battle to Stay Above $10k Begins
Still in cash. No decisions made, looking for some signs of a strength to see if we can make a move. So my mistake here was not going long.
Jan 12 - Bitcoin Getting to Another Critical Level
Generally in cash but identified clear bullish and bearish cases.
Jan 20 - Bitcoin at Critical Level Again ---- *****MY DECISION TO SHORT*****
I finally received enough information to tell me that Bitcoin was going down (6 weeks after the top).
Feb 2 - Did Bitcoin Just Bottom: - ****LONG AT $7600
I added when we moved to $9000 and dipped to the .618 at $8200. My average was $8300.
Feb 3 - Trading the Bitcoin Reversal
"I'm taking partial profits from $9200 to $9500 from my average buy around $8300."
I was looking to get short at $10k but it never happened.
Feb 9 - Trading the Bitcion Reversal Take 2
My first buy was just below $8000 on that pullback, but that turned out to be a good trade. I ended up taking partial profits
Feb 17 - Concerns About Bull Trap
Bitcoin was back at $11000 and I was showing a chart of Bitcoin in 2014 where it had a monster bull trap.
Feb 20 Close to the top ($11700) - *****One of the RARE traders to short
Everyone was super bullish but I shorted this perfectly
Feb 26 - Bitcoin Turning
In this post I just talk about going long until $9800 where I did end up taking profits on my long position and started looking to reshort. I should have held a bit longer.
Mar 5 - Understanding the Bitcion Parabola
Important post where I expand on history of Parabolas.
I attempted several shorts from $10k to $11700 and got stopped out before I eventually was able to get into a good short position at $11500.
March 18 - Today is an Incredibly Important Day for Bitcoin
We were at a critical level with some support so I attempted to go long but stopped out.
March 29 - With Bitcoin Expect the Unexpected
Overall I didn't trade much in March, but I was looking for a bounce here. I was cautious but eventually recognized accumulation and went long at $6500. Called the short squeeze.
At this point, I'm long and still evaluating. I'm expecting to signs of weakness in 3-10 days where I will reshort. My biggest mistakes were taking profits and not letting trades work longer. So I don't want to get to eager to go short. It is possible that bottom is in but I would need to see more signs to stay long. If the bear market continues I will update with a part 2 from this point.
