After some brief consolidation, a new buy signal has appeared off of the 23K level, but what is NOT obvious to the herd is the low probability. From the SWING TRADE perspective, this would NOT be a buy signal to capitalize on. There are two factors that emphasize this: level and wave count.
1. Level refers to support/resistance. At this time, Bitcoin is above the 22K support and about 1300 points below the 25K resistance. 25K is historically significant, and is a location where selling activity is LIKELY to assert itself. If you took a swing trade long from lower prices, this would be a time to give the trade a chance to see how it behaves IF it can probe into the 24Ks or test the 25K level. Can't it break through 25K like all the frauds like to promote? Anything is possible but it is better to respect probabilities than it is to believe in Santa Claus.
2. Wave Count: The bullish impulse I am referring to originate from the December low. It is possible to clearly count 5 waves into the current high. This OFTEN means the current bullish move does not have much left in it and that a broader retrace into the 22K or 20K supports is more reasonable to expect over the next two weeks, IF this retrace unfolds, it can potentially become a Wave 4 with the possibility of testing the high once more. Please note: IF this structure overlaps Wave 1, then it cancels out the entire expectation.
This analysis pertains to the swing trade perspective. This particular time frame has periods when the risk is too high to justify taking risk and requires a LOT of waiting (could be weeks). The solution to this is to work on smaller time frames to mitigate the large magnitude of risk while participating in the brief spurts of momentum.If the risk expectation is smaller, the profit expectation must also be in proportion. If you take a day trade with a swing trade price target, you are highly likely to be stopped out.
It is important to UNDERSTAND: Markets are HIGHLY random. This means a LOT of things: setups can appear randomly, levels can be broken randomly, markets cannot be forecast far into the future and ANYONE (especially those who HIDE from accountability) can make calls that appear to be right. IF consistency is your goal, then being able to recognize probabilities AND playing good defense is what improves your chances. Defense means cutting losses EFFECTIVELY or being able to AVOID a loss altogether. Losing trades and our own behavior are the only things we CAN control.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective. I hope you find it helpful.
Sincere question as your long time follower. You don't short bitcoin but you have been calling and advising to not buy bitcoin since 16k until now it's almost 24k. When do you actually trade?
vitsha
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@Vestige, only a foolish man doesn't buy bitcoin under 20k at the end of another bear year. There were 3 bitcoin bear years: 2014, 2018, 2022.
simplejoe1
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@vitsha, but btc has never been in a bear market in the stock market. so won't the next bull run depend on the stock market?
AlanSantana
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Don't buy at $15,500... Don't buy at $16,500... Don't buy at $17,500... WAIT! Don't you dare buy at $18,000... WAIT for the earnings... Don't buy at $20,000.
Ok... There is a buy signal at around $24,000 (a new high/resistance)... Might look good.
Conclusion: Don't buy low/near support... Buy high and increase your risk.
Namaste.
vitsha
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@AlanSantana, thank you , dear Sir! For your insight (:
JamesLeblancTheRealist
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@AlanSantana, Alan you’ve been telling people to buy at every support since 42K so you are not different. Either way 15.5-16.5k were good buying points. Nobody knows what the future will bring.
elenaec
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@AlanSantana, When are we reaching 11k , remember you were aiming to 11 k a few months ago ???? TY you were almost convinced we"ll get there
Vestige
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@AlanSantana thats bullock i specifically unfollowed you as you been telling people to buy at higher price and can suddenly turn bearish or bullish randomly. Very childish of u with your pretension of namaste to come to other author and being sarcastic
simplejoe1
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@AlanSantana, marc is less of a risk taker than you but still a good trader. more focused on reducing risk which is good for me and alot of others