Not really believing in bull scenario due to Fundamentals and Volume indication as well as lack of clear C wave of the major correction as a part of macro wave 4, but just wanted to try myself in EWs theory, which is still new to me. If you see mistakes, please correct me.
Major takeaways - in either macrobull or macrobear scenario, retracement to 4140s is very likely (the 4th wave of lower order). If we also examine my previous FA and TA, we are still bearish and most like will see one last small wave upwards (as part of the micro 5th wave here) and then correct eventually to ~anywhere between 2880s and 1880s, but most likely ~2400s.
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Important update: since wave 3 can't be the shortest, means wave 5 must be shorter than 990 USD. Thus it can stop anywhere under $5115. So 4597 and 4831 are 2 most probable targets.
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We prodded the red semi-transparent line and then got strongly rejected. I believe this wave 5 is about to be over really soon, if my count was correct. A major correction is coming soon iiac.
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Should bounce off of the top of this subwave 3 @ 4460s or so, retrace around 50-62% to $4640+ and then more down movement.
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I am not 100% sure we will make a $200 bounce up from 4460s. If the sell-off is too strong, we might not find any strong bounce ups until 4100s. Be alert and monitor the price movement as well as volume bias.
Hey! You think it's just a coincidence that C correction is right after 25th of October? i dont :) I think BTC dominance will be slowly rising as some people will try getting out of altcoins and into bitcoin to gain BitcoinGold, and right after they do they will sell like crazy due to expectations of hard fork driving the price down. I think they deliberately placed the hard fork at the time when the C correction is due, so the dip is as low as possible, because the lows feed the new highs :)
@profghibli, that the biggest impact of lowering the price is right on 25th of a day or two later, thats when i suspect is going to be the biggest dump on the price
profghibli
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@PaulSimmons, No, I mean why you said it's coincidence? I see what you mean by FA, but whhy is it a coincidence, did you see something in TA suggesting that date?
PaulSimmons
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@profghibli, sorry didn't see the notification till today, I said if you think it is coincidence? Than i said that I dont think it is a coincidance.
cycler
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nice explanation, we will see how it turns out. It's difficult to trade at the moment.
ericjamesuk
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Interesting. Thanks for your analysis. Out of interest what brings you to hitting the figures 2880/1880 (and most likely 2400)?
profghibli
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@ericjamesuk, These are all possible targets. Overall reason for going lower by a lot - C wave. We just finished 5 waves (top 4900+) in the intermediate term, which is 3 also top of the 3rd wave in the long term, thus there should be A-B-C correction. Now, one of the targets is based on the notion that "C wave usually hits the 4th wave target of a lesser degree", which would be 1880s in our case. Next, 2400s is based on Fibonacci and some support and a trendline iirc, 2880s is also based on a major log trendline.