I hope we didn't panic sell this morning and you had your risk management in place. Take a look at the chart I have posted, you will see a few patterns that may give you back some confidence. We have a buy signal on the William%R and a similar pattern is emerging as you can see. Now, this is not a 100% certainty as it never is but we play the probabilities and I feel this is a good R&R. If you didn't have your buys laddered down to catch this dip, a possible long if we can break back into the channel we were in last night. Set your stops tight just outside the channel, it looks like this was a failed breakout and we may even be heading to "Jump the Creek" which will pay off in a massive way if we are right, if we are wrong you get stopped out for a small loss. Don't let a loss run too far though, if you get stopped out there will be another opportunity to get in.
Good Luck and Happy Trading.
G'day
Thanks for dropping by, hopefully, you garner something valuable from my post, be it educational or an idea towards a trade of your own. Please share, like and comment and engage with me, I am here to help. Trader, Chart analyst, and all round larrikin. Reside in NQ Australia, surrounded by Crocodiles, snakes & giant spiders, not to mention the boxing Kangaroos and devilish Drop bears. It makes my job quite hazardous but strewth mate, I love it.
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Williams %R turned back down as I was writing this but still, the play is to wait now until we break back into the channel, if you are already long, you know the drill, set them stops.
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Still going down by the looks.
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This is how market makers take out silly traders on high leverage it also takes out lots of stops as many will have put stops close to the bottom of what seems to be a flag forming. You should never use high leverage, you will learn the hard way if you do. You may win here and there but over time, you will blow your account up.
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Massive divergence on the 1hr, we should be going up soon. Also still getting higher Highs and higher lows, if we don't break down much further we are still on track.
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20ema is resistance currently, need to push through it.
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Cross your fingers we are taking off
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Remeber that the arrows show projected price action but I always set my orders well under to be sure they are filled. I have profit to be taken at 7100 7200 and then the rest to 7400, bring up the stop as I go.
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Up we go baby
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Still, have to break this trend line or we could retrace to the bottom of the flag again.
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Back down into the channel
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If this candle closes as a Doji with the resistance above, we may have a reversal, will need to wait until the next candle to confirm, we have struggled to push through and hold above, lots of selling pressure above, we may head down to retest the bottom of the structure, before another attempt to break through happens. Be vigilant .
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As usual by the time I post it changes, looking more like an inverted hammer currently lol
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%R will be moving into over bought territory soon also
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Mild divergence too
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Symmetrical Triangle is becoming the dominant pattern now, these are generally continuation patterns.
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Second is a perfect example of rising high meeting up with lower high. This would push us above 9k.
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I advise caution here, this could end badly. Talk about mixed signals.
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Its not really a H&S but as the price action for the head is a screwed up but I am giving it to you anyway. Set you t stop loss under that neckline. Plenty of novice traders in this market and you can get a large number of trades on a poor pattern.
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For those on Bitmex like me, here is a clean char. The price action is a little off but you can see where we attempted to move higher, bulls got stronger and moved high but on the third shoulder, they were rejected again, this can regularly lead to a large drop as the buyer become exhausted. The fact that we consolidated for a long period is where it gets a little hazy for me.
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Good LUCK ;)
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Oh Fractals, why?
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So your stop losses should have been hit if you didn't take profit on the initial breakout. I am in a no-trade zone until I can get a clear indication of what I can see as the best play moving forward. How did you go? Any profits taken, I hope so.
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Next trade will be a breakout of the Symmetrical Triangle, this is a wait and see trade, set a stop buy above the line when we get close or wait unti lwe get confirmation and then st another stop just below the line, breakout fakeouts happen, they also tend to fake out and then reverse after taking out stops, so if possible in your risk plan, give it some room to breathe.
Also, you could set some buys orders close to the bottom of the triangle and long to the top, again stop outside the structure this time, just in case it breaks down.
We’re going to retrace most, if not all, that big green candle stick we rode from $6900 to $8000.
The only reason we rocketed was because Whales triggered a massive Short-Squeeze in the record number of Shorts.
TroyByrne
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@mhfcrypto, If that is what you believe, then stand by your convictions and good luck to you.
mhfcrypto
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@TroyByrne, I should have said “probably” in there somewhere. But yes, the Bears are not dead...if we don’t watch out, we could be like Leo DiCaprio in ‘The Revenant’
straightace
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@mhfcrypto, I hope it retraces, if it retraces to the maximum of 7250 I would still be very bullish for the next impulse up.
@straightace, a short-squeeze is also a possible sign of reversal. IF the market is running out of sellers, then the bulls inevitably take over as soon as volume enters. Its a perfect entry point for a whale. Now that whale will become the seller once we all FOMO in.
TroyByrne
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@straightace, Yes I would highly recommend selling or taking profit after the next big wave, generally, the 3rd impulse wave is where the average joes eventually come in as the media is aflame with stories of BTC mooning etc, these guys end up with the whale's bags.
TroyByrne
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@mhfcrypto, Very true but they are weakening, each time they try and push us down, they find resistance much quicker. Retrace to 6700 is completely plausible as part of an accumulation stage, we must test the bottom before leaving, if we have not done that yet ( which I believe we have). I believe we have already left and are doing the first correction before FOMO kicks in and we go higher but I not always right ;)
mhfcrypto
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@TroyByrne, agreed. I'm not 100%. That's the weird thing about Trading: We're all looking at the same Charts, and we can all have different interpretations.