BTC When will the bear market end?

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Đô la
This is what I'm looking for to go long in the market.

We need to see exhaustion of the current downtrend. Strong RSI bullish divergence on a higher timescale (like 4-hour, daily), failure to go much lower despite extreme bearish sentiment.

It feels like we are close, but close could mean there's another $1,000, $2,000 or $3,000 below us before the real bottom is put in.

Bearish sentiment is nearing unanimous but not quite. For that reason I do not thing we are at bottom (yet), however, we could be soon.

Keep watching + waiting
Bình luận: While we are very bearish in price, shorts are getting kinda cocky. Never a good sign.

Giao dịch đang hoạt động: In this trading idea I shorted from 7900 - 7000

Subsequently shorted from 7125 - 6500

I am now reinvesting the profits since we have a bullish engulfing candle at confluence of support

Long at 6600

Reasons to long:

- 50 week MA
- Downtrend line
- Near prior BTC 6k low
- RSI 4-hour, 1-hour, 15-min all showing bullish divergence

This may not be 'the bottom' but there is high chance of a strong bounce at these levels.

Will watch the trade carefully for a reversal and signal to get out
Giao dịch đang hoạt động: Charting a possible retrace. We have a clear 5 waves down. Now ABC up?

Bình luận: BTC loves wedges and bullish RSI divergence
Bình luận:
Bình luận: Inverse BTC. Would you buy it? Probably but right now isn't the place to 'long' inverse BTC

Bình luận: As good a signal as ever that the bear trend is over (for now)

Bình luận: Got out of the long for +100pts and flipped short. Sell 6900, stop 7010
Bình luận: I feel like we are in dangerous territory for shorts so got out of this now for +130pts

Giao dịch đang hoạt động: Overnight a limit order for long filled and I am now long from 6812. We have the possibility of a counter-trend rally developing from current levels up to about 7400-7500.

It's risky to long rallies in a downtrend but my strategy has and always will be 'get moar coin3z' so i #Fomo buy when we go up. Better to get in low + out with a stop in case it doesn't play out.

Giao dịch đang hoạt động: Broke the trendline. Long is the right call ... for now

Bình luận: At the moment I am targetting the 7400 area for the price to run into resistance.

Bình luận: Zoom in on that green trendline, well we broke it and backtested perfectly.

Bình luận: Market fractal from Feb 6th Lows rally overlaid on the current Apr 1st lows rally.

Same shape of V-bottom, same rally back to the .78 Fib and consolidation (so far)

If this plays out expect a few days of chop around the 7k mark before further upside.

Bình luận: Energy is building for the rocket. Study the Feb 6th low, we have exactly the same pattern. Hit the 78 fib, spikey sideways consolidation then rocket

Long from ~6800 with stops at the low (6400)
Giao dịch đang hoạt động: The fomo is real!

This is a good 50% take profit target if you're long from the lows. Or hodl for glory with a stoploss at break even

Bình luận: Charting the retrace, Sold 50% of long from 6800 at 7414.

Stop at break even for the rest.

Bình luận: Have sold the other 50% of the long now... watching and waiting
Bình luận:
Bình luận: The fomo is real, bullish ascending wedge is forming. As a result, I've re-longed.

Lost about 0.02 BTC in fees and spreads but I'm now back in the market

Giao dịch đang hoạt động: Continuation. We long
Bình luận:
Giao dịch đang hoạt động: Big consolidation under the red trend line (which is two previous highs linked)

Watching these areas carefully.

Above 7410: this is a continuation pattern and I hold long
Below 7240: this is a reversal pattern and I close longs, possibly start looking for short entries

Đóng lệnh: dừng lỗ: Nasty reversal bar on the daily. Out the market for now

Bình luận: Exiting long for a small profit was the right call as this market is turning sour, fast.

Bình luận: The severity of this dump suggests more downside is coming, but should we consolidate first? I'm looking at this fractal earlier on in the year where a sharp rally was followed by hard dump

This fractal (if it plays out) will take us to the bottom of the bear channel at about 5777

Giao dịch đang hoạt động: This is a risky, potentially losing counter-trend trade but the reward would be great.

I have gone long bitcoin 6841, stop at 6695
Bình luận:
Bình luận: two fractals which I've found. One from before the Feb 6th crash, and another from March 10th of this year.

Both call for a retrace to the downtrend line. One is slightly more bullish than the other.

This is risky territory for shorts (and for longs for that matter). Shorts are near All Time High again and they seem to open the most right at the bottom. This can cause vicious bear market rallies as shorts get squeezed. 

Bình luận: https://www.
Bình luận: Following this fractal nicely. The chances are we will rally into 7250 then decide either up or down.

Down could get ugly (5800 is a possibility). Up - similar - a sharp bear market rally to 7700 is not out of the question

Giao dịch đang hoạt động: ok long story short. I got faked out on the dump. I was stopped out and lost a few % of account. bow we pumped I smell bullishness in the air. I have market bought 6800. no leverage. I invested all my cash in BTC at this level. if it goes lower I may buy more. yeah , sod it. I'm at that point.

where BTC will go, nobody knows, but I do know this wedge will break out soon, possibly up.
Giao dịch đang hoạt động: Choppy waters! If this is a bottom, expect weeks of this ... every pump will get sold as people go OMGOSH its up $100 my best chance to sell NOW

but truth is accumulation is going on at these levels. People are buying lots of BTC and others are selling lots of BTC. A transfer of wealth is going on. Which side will win? I'm betting on the bull side. Can we go lower? Sure... 5k is not out of the question, but then what? We have already seen a 70% decline from the ATH, and billionaires and deep pockets traders still want crypto...

Giao dịch đang hoạt động: Sometimes you gotta trust your gut... I lost a little bit of my account trading at the bottom, but I am long from 6800.

The fomo is real! Sentiment has changed. 6500 now looks like the bottom. Buy dips fellas!

Giao dịch được đóng thủ công: Closing this idea as the bear market bottom seems to have been found.

Trades still open:

- long Crypto from sub 7k
- whole account invested in BTC, LTC and ETH
- No leverage

Phản hồi
AndrewBth RodrigoGarreton
@RodrigoGarreton, brilliant squiggle :D
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AndrewBth RodrigoGarreton
@RodrigoGarreton, looks like so far you were right! lol
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@AndrewBth, Hahaha is like that too lateral right? The stage was half serious and half joking, I did not think it was really that side
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AndrewBth RodrigoGarreton
@RodrigoGarreton, yes its been sideways for weeks now. I am watching this triangle develop. Worried about it breaking to the downside

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@AndrewBth, It can be very worrying really since it is inside a huge triangle

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AndrewBth RodrigoGarreton
@RodrigoGarreton, Looks like we have our answer friend!
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@AndrewBth, Lol is good!
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