On the daily chart yesterday initially price moved up and above the important 8200 S/R level which is also the SMA200, but it failed to close above it and came down to close in red on the day. A dissapointment for Bulls but nothing unnatural in a bottoming process. It is normal to see a retest of previous low, so that might be coming, i.e a drop towards 6500. But today we have seen some green and price is currently trading above the Daily pivot point at 7800 (right chart). If price breaks below this level and the intraday low at 7550 we might see a deeper drop towards the Daily S1 at 7000 and below that we are looking at the Weekly S1 for support at 6600. If price instead bounce higher from the Daily pp the Daily R1 will be the first resistance at 8400 and then there isn't much of resistance until the critical 9200-9500 level. Overall, it is still early, from a daily perspective, to know wether we are in a retracement of a bear trend or if we are carving out a bottom. It is clear that the 8250 level is the current Support and resistance level that price needs to breach and close above, to relieve immediate bearish pressure. And then it is the 9400 level. For price to put in a reversal swing it has to take out the 12000 top, so with that in mind, it becomes clear, just how deep price has fallen over the last weeks, and what is needed to shift this downside bias. A good thing though from a Bulls perspective, is that price did find support by the Monthly S1 after some intial probing below it. In a bull trend that is the last resort for Bulls and should hold support. Monthly S1 is at 7150. Bulls would also like to see the MACD indicator turn up and put in a cross followed by some strong upward candles. Currently it is showing early signs of that. Again, it would be natural with a retest of the low at this point and even if the low is taken out, the 5000 level is solid support below, with the channel floor, 88.6 fib, Weekly S2.
Many analyst predicts fall to $4500 within few days, do you agree for such a big fall
CapMoore
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@PRBeingHuman, Many analysts make predictions, good analysts work with levels. If price close above the 8200 today and hold above that tomorrow,
chances increase that current low will hold medium term, even if price drops back, it's more likely that the Monthly S1 pivot will hold up.
If it fails to close above again, chances increase for a drop. There is no support at 4500 though. Below 4800-5000 we are looking at 3000 ultimately even if
there is support at 4200 Monthly S2, the sell off here would probably be so strong it would cut through. Markets are always unpredictable that's why
making predictions is more of entertainment than anything else, having said that, I know its what many non analysts yearns for in a time of chaos and
uncertainty and yes many "analysts" too.
PRBeingHuman
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@CapMoore, Many thanks for clear indication. I am closely following you since XRP rally and admire your work. You deserve more following and likes! Keep up good work and rest will follow!