I haven't updated long time. Unfortunately because of a lot of other activities and somehow because of my laziness. It would be good if I make 3 updates a week especially that I think a lot of interesting things are to come in cryptomarkets.
So I expect that after strong rally we need to pullback. Bulls lost steam and can't make another higher high and we can watch double top on 4h chart. We also break some minor trendline. At this level long positions are trapped and I believe we may retest previous support at 6800 but most likely we go somewhere around 7000-7200 and there I want to place my long positions.
Currently I opened small short at tight stop loss.
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There is also such triangle in play. It is contiunation pattern so we should go up but I there is no much space to grow inside my trend channel and that's why I believe we should pullback to make more space to another leg up
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So far so good. Tomorrows wick was very similar to 9th july wick. Very similar price action. Strong upward movement where short are stopped and traders open long and stronger rejection. Shorters are already stopped and longs are trapped what gives strong downward momentum.
Now we see some bounce but my previous target is still active. I want close my short between 7200-6800. Need to watch price action to find a good moment.
I think the general direction of the analysis is good, but it's very difficult to tell right now whether this thing will break down from this point or not. From a bearish perspective, it would be great if we can get a close on h4 below 7300 as that would confirm the double top pattern (it's unconfirmed atm).
From a bullish perspective even if we break up I think there's too much overhead resistance for it to be a lasting bull move and any bull move will most likely be stopped between 7900 - 8000.
I wouldn't personally place any trades until this consolidation breaks in either direction to confirm where the trend is heading. It could definitely go bearish, I agree, but at the same time this is healthy bull flag like consolidation which is exactly what you want to see if you're a bull and hoping this move is the start of a new uptrend.
Overall I just think it's difficult to say which outcome is most likely right now. The chances of you getting that guess accurately will heavily increase with confirmation of either direction. Bull confirmation would be a break out from the high of the consolidation with big volume.
Just my 2 cents.
Astroc
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@dptene, generally you are right but trading BTC is very tricky. Yesterday we watched breakout of pennant and then strong rejection and downward move. Trading breakouts is very dangerous in BTC. Such rejections happen very often also stop hunters play very good aand easily stop small retail traders who play high leverage. Yesterday it was too much resistance to push the price through it so pullback happened.
dptene
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@Astroc, Yup i completely agree, would not have went bullish even if I saw a break out since with that much overhead resistance it wasn't worth the risk. It was either gonna be a fake out or a small break out that gets stopped after a few hundred dollars of move, if that.
Was looking for a bearish entry but sadly I missed that shooting star on the hourly (formed when the bullish break out got heavily rejected) which would've been a very nice bearish entry signal. Nicely done if you got in with a short though :).
dptene
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I wouldn't call that a channel tbh. The upper trendline is great but really you only have one touch for the lower trendline (which is why I wouldn't call it a channel).
Imo you're forcing a channel that's not yet been confirmed. If the price goes down from here and bounces from your lower trendline than that would indeed be a confirmed channel. But right now, It's just a hypothetical one imo.
Astroc
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@dptene, Yes. The downward channel isn't confirmed yet. It's just my assumption and need to be confirmed once more. Thank you for feedback.
Astroc
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such nice triangle in play. Continuation pattern so it is very likely to hit my take profit zone
From a bullish perspective even if we break up I think there's too much overhead resistance for it to be a lasting bull move and any bull move will most likely be stopped between 7900 - 8000.
I wouldn't personally place any trades until this consolidation breaks in either direction to confirm where the trend is heading. It could definitely go bearish, I agree, but at the same time this is healthy bull flag like consolidation which is exactly what you want to see if you're a bull and hoping this move is the start of a new uptrend.
Overall I just think it's difficult to say which outcome is most likely right now. The chances of you getting that guess accurately will heavily increase with confirmation of either direction. Bull confirmation would be a break out from the high of the consolidation with big volume.
Just my 2 cents.