So is psychology.
This entire time I've had this funny feeling, that Bitcoin isn't done retracing from its all time high yet.
This move was WAY too fast, and it came on the heels of some extremely bad Tether news.
Why was that ignored? Why did everyone turn a blind eye to ADMITTED FRAUD and manipulation?
Dollar signs. Bullrun of 2019. New all time highs. SO MANY PEOPLE are talking about a NEW ATH!! WTF?
All of you got tricked. Played. Whatever you want to call it. When Bitcoins REAL capitulation hits later this year, don't say you weren't warned.
You got too greedy, just like I always do.
So, here's the deal. It looks to this amateur as though Bitcoin had 5 waves down from our $20k all time high ending at $3,120.
That was an 85% retracement, or "A" wave from ATH . EVERYONE including me thought the bear was dead at that point.
What if I told you it is about to rear its ugly face again? Only this time, much worse? As in, $834 BTC worse, or WORSE? :^)
I believe Bitcoin is painting a 5-3-5 retracement from ATH . From $20k to $3,120 was roughly an 85% retracement with 5 waves.
Then, we had an 5-wave retracement up to around $5k (Which could of just been a 3rd wave),
and since that time Bitcoin painted another 5 full waves upward (Which could be the 5th and final leg). AKA B WAVE.
Then, the dump which happened INSANELY fast. Hasn't anyone been a little ... suspect of that dump?
According to Fibs and EWT , Bitcoin may have completed its final high before REAL capitulation. Take a look at the RSI- that divergence on the daily is GLARING.
Need I mention what the CMF indicator, and the are showing? Oh boy this is gonna be bad..
If we take 100%-85% you get 15%. So that means $3,120 was 15% of ATH . This would be our "A" wave correction downward from ATH .
Then, we have a "B" wave retracement, which may have ended around $8,400. I have wondered how, if Bitcoins bear market isn't done with yet, the whales would trick people into believing the bear is dead.
Best way? MOON Bitcoin , FAST. Make it absolutely unbelievably fast, because that's how "B" waves in EWT play out. It also tricks the noobs into thinking "HOLY MOLY SO MUCH POWER SO MUCH FIAT INJECTIONS" etc.
Next thing you know? Retail and everyone and their mother is buying BTC while whales are slowly cashing out into FOMO. You're literally buying their bags from $3k. lol.
Sell into strength, buy into weakness. Very simple.
I wouldn't even doubt that this will go down in history as Bitfinex attempting to moon BTC so they can get top dollar for it to pay the $850M they're missing.
But...That's just a cover for what's really going on. THINK ABOUT IT for a minute.
Would they moon it to $10k? $12k? Higher? Not if the bear is still alive and ESPECIALLY not if this is an entire, life-long 10 year structure which is what I suspect.
Think about it. Everyone, literally everyone is screaming $10k is imminent.
Some people even believe we may see upwards of $13k/$15k/New ATH , which is definitely possible. I just don't agree.
#1 rule of market psychology- DON'T GET TRAPPED WITH THE HERD. As Warren's famous quote always goes;
"Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful."
How is this any different? NVT signal SCREAMING sell, fear+greed index HIGHER THAN OUR ALL TIME HIGH, massive hidden divergence in the weekly...
Tether news that is likely about to get a WHOLE lot worse, and worst of all? This was probably all caused BY Tether being injected for one last hurrah.
I'm sure we'll be reading about that in the months to come.
A wave from $20k to $3,120.
B wave from $3,120 to $8,400...
And IF $8,400 was the end of B wave?
A of "A" wave leaves us with an $834 target.
If we reach $13k or above, we're looking at $2k-$2,500.
If we are still , IF, then look to the boxes on the chart for support.
A break below $6,600 will be the first warning. Second warning is a break below the dump at around $6,180 ish .
I will be looking for these targets in coming days/weeks for confirmation that we're about to truly capitulate.
Best of luck.
Get into your favorite alts.
Thank me later.
Say hi to the pain train for me boys. :^)
Still, I do believe the end target is valid no matter how high we go from this point forward.
Just don't get too greedy..
Even the short term is ugly.
We're on the brink. Which way does she go?
This is the best hopium I can come up with right now.
Either a rejection at $8,130, OR
There is a bull flag forming. From the length of the pole, the target would be a slightly higher high, just above $8,400. Double tweezer tops anyone?
There is also a (weak) inverted head and shoulders. The neckline is sloped extremely negatively, but that doesn't downplay its potential. Volume profile matches well. The target of that is also around $8,400.
I give these formations about a 40% chance of completing.
If we go north next, I'd say I'm about 75% certain that at least short-mid term, $8,400 or the target of those 2 formations will be our final top.
At that point, we need to see $6,600 or at worst, $6,180 hold.
If they break, look out below.
Best of luck everyone. This is gonna be a bumpy ride.
If this holds, up we go.
There will very likely be one last substantial rally from here, to nuke high leverage shorts. Be aware of that, because it's possibly in the making as we speak.
If $8,400 wasn't our high, I believe $8,600 will be the highest we go unless this call is outright wrong.
PS- pull down on the main chart in this idea, it has targets you can look to for resistance if we do indeed beat our $8,400 high.
I present to you the 6M chart for BTC on Bitstamp:
As of right now, this candle closes in 7 days and is currently printing a bullish engulfing candle.
I am ready to be wrong. I am also ready to miss out on a huge opportunity.
I just really really really don't think this ends well. Guess we'll know more come June 1st.
Could it be?
Not one not two but THREE bearish engulfing on the hourly.
Will she HOLD?!
That's a yikes from me dawg.
PVT showing as high of volume as our ALL TIME HIGH yet we're 1/4 of the price.
T- 2 days till decision time.
WHERE'S THE VOLUME!?
Mega dump or mega pump incoming.
T- 2 days tops.
North or south, I don't really care...This will be fun to watch.
Beware of fakeouts gentleman!
I'm sure it's plenty healthy that between Bitmex, Bitstamp, and Bitfinex there is a premium growing.
We now have a reverse Finex premium. EVERYONE was talking about the premium on Finex, why are they not talking about getting a discount over there now?
Interesting times ahead.
Want to see why?
On a new AlanMaster idea shown here:
And this was the result. Notice I also included a picture of the recent comments I have made. In one comment I was discussing this potentially happening with Giorgio, and the other comment I'd discussed this potentially happening on an idea of London55555. So, where is this 'moderation' need coming from exactly?
Did I break the rules any time recently? What did I do to deserve my comments on other peoples ideas to be censored? This along with the fact that my 'The Satoshi Signal Appears.' idea being completely hidden from anyone but my follower base is a strong indicator someone is trying to shut me up.
I find it incredibly interesting that for some reason I cannot post immediate comments to peoples profiles anymore.When I go on to Alan's idea about Bitcoin people are freely posting comments, so am I the only one with this problem?
Also, notice the front page and how it's mainly bullish?
Thanks for making it obvious bois
BTC worse, or WORSE? :^)"
Take a look at this guys idea. Note the Feb 2020 prices BTC could possibly be at according to HIM.
$834 lines up perfectly :-)"
PS, Mr. Cruz182
My answer to you is simple. If Bitcoin will never break below $5k again why did it do it the first time? :^)
There's so many factors to a bitcoin bull run, an impending financial crisis near, trade war that normally leads to a regional conflict or a display of power in any form of war, the increasingly interest in bitcoin as store of value from investors and institutional money and of course the interest of new generations in bitcoin and other crypto currencies. There's to much at stake right now for bitcoin ever go down to <5000, you should put that in your mind, will NEVER EVER go that low. EVER.
You had your chance. Your lack of vision now makes you distrustful towards it and you want people to share your pathetic vision. So sad.