This is a log scale chart showing all the previous corrections that occurred in 2017. I know a lot of you are concerned about the Bitcoin situation. Well, this correction is no different than previous ones. The correction is at its end. No, Bitcoin is not crashing, no we are not going to 1000$.
A picture is worth a thousand words. I didn't include indicators to keep it simple for you guys to understand. Just look at the behavior of previous corrections.
I'm going to buy at 7.5k$ / 8k$ ish area. That doesn't mean that you should as well. I'm not a magician, this isn't a prediction, this is a strong possibility. Personally, because I'm the author of it, I believe in it 100%. For you, use your brain and make your own decisions.
I will keep updating this chart during this entire week. If anything changes, I will make sure to let you know ASAP.
Cheers, ~DCFreak
Q: What is the difference between prediction and a possibility?
Well, I'm not making things out of my own imagination or using a magical future crystal ball. I'm using information from previous corrections to examine the different possibilities that might occur in such event. Possible Scenarios: 1) The price goes as I mentioned 2) The price falls down further (Didn't occur in the previous corrections examined above. Hence, highly unlikely.) 3) Sideway movement (Highly unlikely, because of all of the buying and selling volume, specially after the media attention) Peace.
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My first Bitcoin analysis (Went really well, like spot on)
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My second bitcoin analysis: (spot on as well)
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The price started dropping right after I posted this idea.... they are going to arrest me for market manipulation
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The idea of this analysis is every single correction in 2017, the price dropped to the peak right before the start of the rally.
So this rally that lead to 20k$ started at 5.6k$ and the peak right before it was 7.4k$
Look at all the previous corrections and apply the same methodology and you will see.
That's what I meant by "one picture is worth a thousand words" ;)
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Here is what I mean.
Correction #1 that occurred in early 2017
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Here is the second correction that occurred in 2017
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Here is the third correction that occurred in 2017
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This is the correction we are going through right now:
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Ok... finally explained to you what the analysis is based on.. I thought it was clear, but I guess it wasn't.
Who is the moron that said "One picture is worth a thousand words" That ain't true
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Here are the two down trend lines. As long as non of them are broken I'm still bearish. Most likely this increase is a bull trap before the major drop: (also look at correction#1 same thing...)
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The 10800$ is a really strong support level. It was tested like 8 times on 8 different days and held well.
MACD is showing that its not going to hold this time.. we are few hours away from finding out (maybe even mins)
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EMA12 is about to cross down on EMA26 in the 1hr candle. Could be a drop to the next support level...or not.
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ok we are at the first downtrend line. If BTC breaks up, most likely we will go to 11600$ area, this will be the 2nd down trendline.
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For those asking me for an update
I posted this yesterday and it's still valid
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A rise like this as called in the analysis above ^^ is nice for two things
1) could be the end of sideways movement and maybe a true upward momvement (I doubt it)
2) This buy momentum will turn into a selling momentum when the second downtrend line is touched causing a strong sell, breaking all the support levels and going down to the anticipated target.
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The struggle in the last three 4H candles gives me the feeling that a fall is near. Watch out and remember to always have a sell loss.
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Bullish 1D MACD
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The update above is for daily traders. If you do long term, stay away.
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Decreasing volume, increasing price : Bearish....
I doubt that the trend line will be broken, but you never know. we are two hours away from finding. Also tomorrow is the 26th.
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Ok I gotta go sleep. If the price exceeds 12k$ feel free to ride the wave to 13.5k or whatever.
I doubt that it will thou (really really doubt it). Always have a stop loss.
DCFreak
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We are at a critical point where the candle is right at the first downtrend. if it breaks through I will personally buy and sell at the second downtrend.
If it doesn't break we will see something like what happened in 2018-01-20 also, like what happened 2018-01-06. (Basically, when it fails to break the trendlines it gains momentum to fall down)
So I believe it will either go to 14ishk or 8ishk based on how this situation ends.
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So in summary, the bullish 1D MACD I posted here yesterday is right at the crossing point, along with the candle being at the trend line.
We should be seeing some big movements here soon.
MACD is bullish, RSI is just fine. So there is a high chance of breaking up. Wouldn't buy till a 4h or 1H candle closes above the trendline.
You will be able to tell when the trend line is broken from the price without looking at any analysis. However, I will keep you updated regardless.
Note if it breaks up through the trendline, this doesn't mean a trend reversal, because we are still in a downtrend as we still need to break through the main downtrend line. It will just mean that we are heading to test the main trendline again.
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struggling in breaking the trendline, still waiting for the 4hr candle to close red under the trendline.
I'm also seeing a rising wedge starting from the 23rd. Which when you do target analysis on, it takes us back to 9313$.
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Here is what I mean by the update above ^
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Hidden bearish MACD divergence! kinda confirms the rising wedge.
;)
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If the price drops below 11k then game on, first stop would be as indicated in the rising wedge update.
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BAAAAM
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Everything just clicks together perfectly.
Rising wedge with a bearish divergence, which has a target of 9400$ (Falling wedge 101)
9400$ is the previous bottom.... So either a double bottom at 9400$ then reversal, or a further drop.
Lets just hope that it works that way.
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Alright 30 more mins before I go to sleep. Got a course in 4 hours... Dont do graduate school!! undergrad is enough.
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Here is what I think will happen in the next couple of hours:
RSI is underbought, so we will be hanging around at the 10.5k$ resistance for a little bit, then a stronger drop to the falling wedge target, around 9400$
We might see a stronger drop than 9400$ but when time comes I will explain more.
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Can't sleep. So feel free to ask questions while I'm up.
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A question that is commonly asked:
"I see a 20+ BTC buy order in blah blah exchange, why are they buying while the market is going down?"
Whales who are buying in lets say 600 BTC can't just do a market buy, also they can't just place the 600 BTC buy order in the market
Because if he does a market buy, he will make the price rise from lets say 10.5k to 11k$, so he will cause a pump and will also buy BTC at a higher price than he wants.
Also if he places a 600BTC buy order, it will take forever to get fulfilled and will cause the price to rise as well. Also its not smart to buy all of your bitcoin at one price.
So what do they do?
They buy a bit by a bit at different prices, so 20 BTC at 10.4k , 20 BTC at 10k 20 BTC at 9.9k 20 BTC at 9.6k etc..... till his order is fulfilled
So while the market is red as hell, you will see big buy orders... these are whales.
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The first downtrend got broken through
Meaning we should see a movement towards 14k within the next couple of days.
so feel free to buy with a stop loss as the buying momentum isn't strong and bitcoin is acting sketchy.
When it gets near the second trendline I will make an another update.
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Thats the upward channel I'm, looking at after breaking the trendline
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Thats the daily MACD I have mentioned before, its still bullish as mentioned on the 24th of Jan. Now its even more bullish.
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*I'm still bearish, watching the price closely with an aggressive stop loss.
The news above are really bad, and you can see the effects of it already.. Bitcoin is at 11550$ in coinbase which uses USD
While the price is 12000$ in all the USDT exchanges.
Basically, people claimed that Tether is printing money out of thin air causing the prices to surge. Tether hired someone to audit their accounts back in May of 2017. Now something happened between them and the auditor and they canceled everything. Which is a really bad sign.
After this news, USDT USD went down a lot (its not 1 usd = 1 usdt anymore)
If the price of USDT keeps going down, that would mean that you are losing money even thou you are not in any coin.
Thats why some people started using their USDT to buy Bitcoin and move it to USD exchanges. And because people were buying a lot of BTC with USDT, they pushed the price up.
I'm in LTC, not holding any USDT at the moment.
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Watch out for the following scenario
This is just a possibility. For BTC to go back within the downtrend region it must retrace to the 38% Fib line (which is possible) If this happens, I believe the ascending channel will be overwritten by the downtrend line which will take the price down to 9400$
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Sorry for the lack of updates. You can see that the last update here happened (^ right above this update).. so we are still in a downtrend possibly to 7500$
Just be patient.
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We are on the way to the target indicated in the trade!! Took forever but patience is a key in trading.
It has broken the first trendline... Consolidated a little before doing so... The vol is not enough to get it back into bull mode though - the "oomph" in passing that trned line didnt seem so great, so there appears to be some fragility in whether it will move up further to the next ceiling. MACD is looking a little bullish as well I think on the 1Day chart. I am starting to think that the scale of the last leg upwards from december was far greater than those that proceeded and that this downtrend may wander along a bit longer and further than expected before we start to see some larger moves. I am still on the sidelines watching how this plays out, unless there is a decent increase in Vol to the upside.
Sync38
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Awsome TA mate! I've been keeping an eye on your BTC analysis, really thorough!
DCFreak
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@Synco, Thanks man!
JN9797
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Really great work DCFreak - Following this for some time now. Its great to see you do analysis that is simple and straightforward in its rationale and communication, observing the forest whilst others get stuck in the weeds. You are doing good work Sir. Hat Tip ;-)
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I have read every TA post on BTC and this one by DCFreak is spot on and the best one out of all of them. I am sure it took a lot of time and TA so everyone should be grateful for the great work.
I did the best I can to convince everybody, rather than them following blindly.
All I can do is present all the facts, and the final decision is up to the reader.
I'm really convinced that if the scenario presented above happened to the previous 3 corrections, it will happen to this one.
emrocak
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This was the best of all TA's. I was following about 30 TA but this one was my fav. from the beginning.
I wanted to believe it to be true and hit the target. Bravo