Slight adjustment to earlier ideas where I doubted whether BTC would have the strength to drop all the way to the 8K range. The strength you say? Well, yes. Having BTC waiver around the 11K range, seemingly more nervous than a cow in a butcher shop, was not a sign of strength. It made me feel the market was protecting BTC and in a way that may have been true. It may still be true. It could be that the forces behind USDT need more time to get their house in order before they can withstand BTC falling by another 25%. I have no idea how solvent the exchanges are and how big of a problem we are facing there. USDT is small in market cap, but overrepresented in trading. It is a big unknown, so I left it out of this analysis for the most part.
I am sure it has an impact on the volume as well, as I doubt many high volume traders will confidently wire millions of dollars to some exchanges until the rumour mill has quieted down. It is probably all FUD, but firing your auditor is not the smartest move.
Anyhoo.... Given the above, we could see BTC trading sideways for a few days before it is 'allowed' to complete its pattern. If all is well, I expect it to fall to between 9400 (previous estimate) and 8100 (new support estimate) before starting recovery, sometime in February. Timelines in this chart are not the most important. I think we go down, before we go up. As I write this it seems we broke 10K, but probably still some artificial support there.
Given that the entire cryptoverse is still completely dependent on BTC, it would be a great thing if this stuff all got sorted and the 'threat of 8K' was taken out of play. Big money has too many alternatives right now and we definitely need new money entering the space. Expect some hiccups on the way up, as people will be leaving en masse once they have recouped their losses and new retail investors are more hesitant to enter. End of Q1, early Q2 should be an interesting time.
As always, my opinions are just that and do not constitute trading advice. Your trades are your own. Good luck and don't hesitate to appreciate or critique. I have linked my earlier ideas below. Overal the picture remains consistent.
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The 25% in the text is now down to 18%, as we fell below 10K while typing.
@henkybaby hey nice analysis..what do u think now..will it go down from 8k or even 8k?
henkybaby
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@bhuvneshj, I left my time machine back in 2022, where I sold it for 3 BTC (3M USD). I had to walk all the way back. What I think is logically what I published. It is always a case of what is possible and out of all the possibilities, what is most probable. The latter is based on 'gut' a lot more than most people will admit. My 3 most likely scenarios are (in order) 8.1, 9.4 and 7.7, provided 10K does not become an artificial support.
bhuvneshj
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@henkybaby, Thanks a lot for your reply...i am glad there are still optimistic people...i think that artificial barrier is now broken...
henkybaby
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@bhuvneshj, broken means that it will dip quite a bit further or stay below 9950 for a while. A short excursion below 10K does not a break make. To me 9.950 is still 10K.