BTCUSD - price action, simple analysis, sentiment

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Đô la
So, I think this simple analysis, can say it all.
Imo price action and strenght, is too weak, to break any significant point more than 10-10.3K, where I think is strong resistance.
Points that we are probably in for longer on bear market:
1/ Bearish downtrend seems to be in place.
2/ Sentiment - I check by seeing reddit cryptocurrency and other crypto communities - still not in despair, and rather positive newses, aren't fueling price.
People are cheering themselves, but don't see, what's going on, that probably they are in denial phase, before despair.
There aren't more people coming, and less and less people are online in reddits subs.
3/ Funds that entered sometime ago probably have already gone out of alts, volume has gone down siginificantly siging that pump and dumpers, also have withdraw their funds.
4/ Price manipulation, and pumping, which was apparently seen on a lot of exchanges has ended for now, it seems. Or at least activity is much less visible.
5/ Imo a lot of funds, early adopters, are actually cashing out not cashing in, and if wall street isn't now on cc , they will probably wait for better price, because now they are incredibly inflated.

6/ 3 years bull market - it's a lot of time in cc sector. And it's a 3 year bull market, just was speeded up in 2017, from march-april, strangely after Bitfinex lost their banking...

If you relate it to Elliot cycle waves, which were made by trader -stevepuri - it seems, that we have bad outlook overall.

Without new comers (which media frenzy, and crypto frenzy) has overstretched greatly, with only retail money, and with miners dumping pressure, trend will get more severe.

You can try to short it, if we get to 9-10-10.3K, that would be my point to see action there.

Bình luận: Price is showing weakness. It can be a trap, I put small position to short here.
Looking by GDAX EMAs, and here, it looks like a good place, to flush down.
Bình luận: But it's choppy, so probably better to be on sidelines for now.
Bình luận: So we can't even touch more than 9K...
I think it will go now to 7500-7600 and rebound, and maybe last push to about 10000 (psychological and strong resistance barrier).
But price action is suggesting, that BTC is very weak, better risk/reward seems to be to the downside, with a tight SL. I'll wait to see, if it can get to 9800-10.000 and add shorts there.
Target seems to be 5000, and if it won't hold expect 3000.
Bình luận: Ok, my idea was almost spot on it went to 7900 and rebounded.
Now I think next push, with a lot of effort to 10.000-10.300, and we will have a new flush down, or at least a few red candles.
Bình luận: As we crawling up to 9K again, I think this time we will surpass it, and land about 10.000USD mark again, if we do - I'm shorting it.
I call it's an end of the bubble and we are headed to the 2-3K area territory.
If correction will be extended, we can hit even 1K - there are a few ideas, that we can hit that.
I believe 2018, won't be so great for crypto markets, as 2017 was.
Price action is weak, volume is low, BTC have enough bad news ahead also (due to this run for the whole 2017, now regulators are watching it to regulate).
It's not a good sign - the amazing swings with price was mainly done by market manipulators, imo, not real demand. Last legs were mania demand, but I believe that a lot of run of 2017 was stimulated by some bad actors, along with of course altcoin pumps.
2018 will deflate and imo pop the bubble.

Shorting: 9600-9900USD
TP1: 6000USD (as we can have bounce from last recent low)
TP2: 5000USD
TP3: 3000USD
TP4 (ultimate): 1000-1800USD

That's not a financial advice what's so ever. Do what you want, it's just my idea.
Bình luận: 9900 USD provided excellent resistance, as we can see so far.
Tho I have a feeling that we can have another try to 10300USD.
But 9900 seems to be a good point to enter, at least short swing trade, if anyone entered it.
SL: 10500-10550USD.
Bình luận: Ok, so 9900USD, was only short-term resistance, I would suggest to keep your SL tight, if you are in position, because if we will approach and break 10.300, we might be headed to 11.600USD resistance.
That's last point, for me. If you breach it we must rethink our position,.
It can be similar situation to this in 2014 with BTC, that we will crawl back to about 13.000USD, just to fall back more later in the year.
Be prepared for such situation, keep short SL.
Bình luận: Observe the sistuation around here and 10.300.
If it's get broken on 4H candle, then we should go to 11.600-12.000 resistance.
Bình luận: Sideways movement before waterfall.
Bình luận: Ok, I don't understand completly, what has happened now.
But ok, stop is reached, so let's see.
Bình luận: Ok, so here is update, we can have extended rally to 11.600 zone.
Bình luận:
Bình luận: If we go decisively below 10.500, it should be a good point to enter shorts again.
This candles looks good and whole upward movement seems to be exhausting.
Bình luận: We are below 10.900 resistance now, if we can't break it, we should have waterfall.
If we break -> watch price action at 11.600-11.900 zone.
Bình luận: Ok, so someone just pushed a big candle through 11.250 big resistance, with heavy volume, to just push it through... 1.4K BTC in 1m on bitfinex, seems quite strange, who would do something like this in 1 minute move, doesn't it?

I guess we will test 11.600-900 zone in a few hours.
It can break, from what I see now, I hope not.
Bình luận: It didn't break. Now we are forming nice reversal of this "bullish" trend.
Closing around 10.300, of the day would confirm that bear are back in town.
Bình luận: Pretty good resistance afterall.

Bình luận: Magic resistance/support lines?
Bình luận: Ok so, of course everyone was misleaded by Bitcoin "bull run", which was obviously a correction to make a new low at 9026USD a few hours ago.
But if you shorted from 11-11.5K, you are ok, with good profits.
This market is rigged, and so I expect, more bounces to come.
Yet my target remains - 1.8-3K at the end of the year.
Bình luận: After almost a year, we can see that I was wrong about timescale - but not about the direction or even way it should be played (although I was wrong about sideway market, that was from june till 14th nov - I didn't predict it - thought it will go sideways from 3K to 5K - as it was for me more logical levels). Nonetheless, 3K at the end of the year remains.
Bình luận: We hitted 3150-3200USD - good enough for me - 3K was almost. Target low this year - 1200-1800 USD. Will provide some charts, when I'm back.
i like the way u play the bounce. thanks for the explanation.
what do u see as the bottom for march ? is the bottom done ?
Phản hồi
ja.piotr.bor mansiinator
@mansiinator, nope first we must at least test 7200, them we should imo accelerate toward 6000.
Then we can have small bounce, and later further decline.
It's a whole correction from 200USD in 2015, so it will be a while before we end bear market
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