Imo price action and strenght, is too weak, to break any significant point more than 10-10.3K, where I think is strong resistance.
Points that we are probably in for longer on bear market:
1/ downtrend seems to be in place.
2/ Sentiment - I check by seeing reddit cryptocurrency and other crypto communities - still not in despair, and rather positive newses, aren't fueling price.
People are cheering themselves, but don't see, what's going on, that probably they are in denial phase, before despair.
There aren't more people coming, and less and less people are online in reddits subs.
3/ Funds that entered sometime ago probably have already gone out of alts, has gone down siginificantly siging that pump and dumpers, also have withdraw their funds.
4/ Price manipulation, and pumping, which was apparently seen on a lot of exchanges has ended for now, it seems. Or at least activity is much less visible.
5/ Imo a lot of funds, early adopters, are actually cashing out not cashing in, and if wall street isn't now on cc , they will probably wait for better price, because now they are incredibly inflated.
6/ 3 years bull market - it's a lot of time in cc sector. And it's a 3 year bull market, just was speeded up in 2017, from march-april, strangely after Bitfinex lost their banking...
If you relate it to cycle waves, which were made by trader -stevepuri - it seems, that we have bad outlook overall.
Without new comers (which media frenzy, and crypto frenzy) has overstretched greatly, with only retail money, and with miners dumping pressure, trend will get more severe.
You can try to short it, if we get to 9-10-10.3K, that would be my point to see action there.
Looking by GDAX EMAs, and here, it looks like a good place, to flush down.
I think it will go now to 7500-7600 and rebound, and maybe last push to about 10000 (psychological and strong resistance barrier).
But price action is suggesting, that BTC is very weak, better risk/reward seems to be to the downside, with a tight SL. I'll wait to see, if it can get to 9800-10.000 and add shorts there.
Target seems to be 5000, and if it won't hold expect 3000.
Now I think next push, with a lot of effort to 10.000-10.300, and we will have a new flush down, or at least a few red candles.
I call it's an end of the bubble and we are headed to the 2-3K area territory.
If correction will be extended, we can hit even 1K - there are a few ideas, that we can hit that.
I believe 2018, won't be so great for crypto markets, as 2017 was.
Price action is weak, volume is low, BTC have enough bad news ahead also (due to this run for the whole 2017, now regulators are watching it to regulate).
It's not a good sign - the amazing swings with price was mainly done by market manipulators, imo, not real demand. Last legs were mania demand, but I believe that a lot of run of 2017 was stimulated by some bad actors, along with of course altcoin pumps.
2018 will deflate and imo pop the bubble.
TP1: 6000USD (as we can have bounce from last recent low)
TP4 (ultimate): 1000-1800USD
That's not a financial advice what's so ever. Do what you want, it's just my idea.
Tho I have a feeling that we can have another try to 10300USD.
But 9900 seems to be a good point to enter, at least short swing trade, if anyone entered it.
That's last point, for me. If you breach it we must rethink our position,.
It can be similar situation to this in 2014 with BTC, that we will crawl back to about 13.000USD, just to fall back more later in the year.
Be prepared for such situation, keep short SL.
If it's get broken on 4H candle, then we should go to 11.600-12.000 resistance.
But ok, stop is reached, so let's see.
This candles looks good and whole upward movement seems to be exhausting.
If we break -> watch price action at 11.600-11.900 zone.
I guess we will test 11.600-900 zone in a few hours.
It can break, from what I see now, I hope not.
Closing around 10.300, of the day would confirm that bear are back in town.
But if you shorted from 11-11.5K, you are ok, with good profits.
This market is rigged, and so I expect, more bounces to come.
Yet my target remains - 1.8-3K at the end of the year.
Then we can have small bounce, and later further decline.
It's a whole correction from 200USD in 2015, so it will be a while before we end bear market