Nidalas

BTCUSD, very long term view

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Đô la
We could see a HUGE dip very soon. Depending on your patience for the recovery. Still thinking sideways consolidation is more likely, looking at how altcoins reacted these last days.
Bình luận: 18300$ to 10800$ two days after posting this, maybe more down to 8000 levels in play, and most altcoins dipped and instant recovered (fully, unlike BTC) as planned. See shorter term view for traders
Bình luận: Longer view update :


let's look at the cycles one by one
The Grand Cycle wave I, that ended in end 2013, started a year long bear market
this is wave 1 for sure, then wave 2 with a complete total retracement of a 88% loss of it's value.
if you remove the last panic buy dollar value, and panic sell which got rejected within minutes to a more stable value of 230$ from 1050 and stayed there some time (meaning, you remove hours fluctuation off a yearly chart), it's exactly a 78% retracement, which is a normal and usual value for wave 2

now, waves 3 can NOT be the shortest of waves
looking at the channel size we are in, thanks to triangulation of 0$ - 1250$ - 150$, we can safely deduct that we are going to see much, much higher values, depending on the time it gets to go there. The slower we go (= the more people accumulate), the higher the value and the longer it stays there (= the more people distribute). All of that through the magic of exponential growth
We are looking at a 4 figures bitcoin


now, inside the already more than began wave 3 of this Grand Cycle, we scan look for 5's waves, and we can see only two that are significant, and none to the levels (in terms of duration and % magnitude) of those of 2013
for me, it means we are more likely in a bear trap, rather than the end of a major degree wave. What this means is the most likely scenario is a consolidation and holding below ATH for weeks if not months, before making a new bull run of a much higher magnitude

bitcoin still too hot in the minds, and we only did the first rally of the major degree bull run. Those are often espaced by about couple of months
Bình luận: Analysis that was posted as a comment, few days ago

Bình luận: So, 0.61 fib (7500) it is !

Tricky bitcoin :-)
Đóng lệnh: đạt mục tiêu: Idea and wave count is still valid but I made a cleaner version

Đóng lệnh: đạt mục tiêu: Wave 4 soon done
nidalas are you professional
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Nidalas htgorgulu
@htgorgulu, Thank you very much
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Nice analyses!!! Bear trap, interesting.
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Nidalas TomBrazil
@TomBrazil, :-)
Check your private messages !
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most relevant graph IMHO. We could still see 7300ish very soon, and then a second wave up making ATH.
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Nidalas airatru
@airatru, Yes, we must never forget the big picture !

Yes, that would be possible. Here is the alternate chart I made yesterday to answer great analyst @semasters on a potential wavecount using an hybrid version of Eliott waves more suited for cryptos.
I am not sure we will see a new ATH soon, though, but definitely a very big chance before 2019 yes

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