In the chart above we can see how BTC has been completing 5 Waves and ABC/ABCDE since the beginning of the correction which started on Dec 21, 2017. To understand where BTC is going, and to make an assertive, historical-data based prediction, we must look deeper than merely looking at previous support or resistance. Alone, these only tell us where BTC likes to bounce around, but they do not tell us when and in what manner BTC will move.
In my charts I use multiple Fibs- Fibonacci Retracement, Fibonacci Wedge, and Fibonacci Pitchfork. Retracements tell me about support and resistance; Wedges give me an understanding of timeframe; Pitchfork shows me where BTC is moving. In addition I use Ichimoku Clouds, Bollinger Bands, Relative Strength Index, MACD, and sometimes TTM-Squeeze. While charting I plot Elliott Waves in every form that I can see and I save them, and by doing so I can see where they align with larger waves. This may seem like overkill, or overwhelming for some, but this is my method, and it has worked for me thus far in predicting BTC to its current price level (followers tracking my posts know this).
If you are looking for someone that says "well, BTC looks like its doing this, and if that is so it could go one of two ways..." then you can find plenty others out there doing that. I am here to state my absolute opinion, not hedge my own statements with a 50/50 option. I have no qualms about making a statement, based on technical analysis and historical data, and saying where I believe BTC, or any other coin, is going. If I am wrong I am wrong...with that said...
YOU must make your own decisions. Its your financial security, your life, your actions, your responsibility. This is Technical Analysis, NOT financial advice.
Let's begin:
BTC is currently in the process of completing D Wave of the ABCDE correction that started nearly 6 weeks ago. During this time volume has withered and billions have been pulled out of the market. Financial institutions do not seem to be jumping back into buying BTC at 14500/14300/14000/13800/13500/13000/12900/12500/12300/11900/11400/11000/10800/10500/10200...and now as of writing this BTC stands at 9740.
Continued in update...
In my charts I use multiple Fibs- Fibonacci Retracement, Fibonacci Wedge, and Fibonacci Pitchfork. Retracements tell me about support and resistance; Wedges give me an understanding of timeframe; Pitchfork shows me where BTC is moving. In addition I use Ichimoku Clouds, Bollinger Bands, Relative Strength Index, MACD, and sometimes TTM-Squeeze. While charting I plot Elliott Waves in every form that I can see and I save them, and by doing so I can see where they align with larger waves. This may seem like overkill, or overwhelming for some, but this is my method, and it has worked for me thus far in predicting BTC to its current price level (followers tracking my posts know this).
If you are looking for someone that says "well, BTC looks like its doing this, and if that is so it could go one of two ways..." then you can find plenty others out there doing that. I am here to state my absolute opinion, not hedge my own statements with a 50/50 option. I have no qualms about making a statement, based on technical analysis and historical data, and saying where I believe BTC, or any other coin, is going. If I am wrong I am wrong...with that said...
YOU must make your own decisions. Its your financial security, your life, your actions, your responsibility. This is Technical Analysis, NOT financial advice.
Let's begin:
BTC is currently in the process of completing D Wave of the ABCDE correction that started nearly 6 weeks ago. During this time volume has withered and billions have been pulled out of the market. Financial institutions do not seem to be jumping back into buying BTC at 14500/14300/14000/13800/13500/13000/12900/12500/12300/11900/11400/11000/10800/10500/10200...and now as of writing this BTC stands at 9740.
Continued in update...
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In this 6Hour snapshot taken last night at 23:28 EST BTC can be seen to have completed a Minor Elliott 5 Wave which is primarly what D Wave currently consists of...
In this 6Hour snapshot taken last night at 23:28 EST BTC can be seen to have completed a Minor Elliott 5 Wave which is primarly what D Wave currently consists of...
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This 1Hour snapshot shows that BTC was moving within the 0.618 Pitchfork Channel (teal) bouncing off of, or rather being contained by, the 0.5 Fibannci Retracement of 11433.50 (green). At that time I had anticipated one more bounce above the 0.75 Pitchfork support channel, with BTC moving closer to the wedge at the right of the chart where the Pitchfork Channel and Retracement Fib meet, but support could not hold...and we found BTC @ 10300 12 hours ago...
This 1Hour snapshot shows that BTC was moving within the 0.618 Pitchfork Channel (teal) bouncing off of, or rather being contained by, the 0.5 Fibannci Retracement of 11433.50 (green). At that time I had anticipated one more bounce above the 0.75 Pitchfork support channel, with BTC moving closer to the wedge at the right of the chart where the Pitchfork Channel and Retracement Fib meet, but support could not hold...and we found BTC @ 10300 12 hours ago...
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This 4Hour snapshot clearly shows how BTC is moving within the Fibonacci Pitchfork Channels, hitting Retracement resistance and supports...and we can see that BTC has now dropped down to the 0.75 Channel (blue)...
This 2Hour shows that the negative movement we have seen the past 24 hours is part of an ABCDE that SHOULD be over. We can see that the candles have scraped along the bottom Bollinger Band and we should start to see positive movement within the 0.75 Channel, bouncing between the 0.886 Channel Line (purple) and the 0.75 (blue)...
This 4Hour snapshot clearly shows how BTC is moving within the Fibonacci Pitchfork Channels, hitting Retracement resistance and supports...and we can see that BTC has now dropped down to the 0.75 Channel (blue)...
This 2Hour shows that the negative movement we have seen the past 24 hours is part of an ABCDE that SHOULD be over. We can see that the candles have scraped along the bottom Bollinger Band and we should start to see positive movement within the 0.75 Channel, bouncing between the 0.886 Channel Line (purple) and the 0.75 (blue)...
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From here I see BTC moving up towards the 0.5 Fibonacci Retracement, closer to the end of D Wave demarcation, but not breaking resistance. BTC must also stay above the 0.382 Retracement of 9437.30 (yellow) to keep from falling into the 0.886 Pitchfork Channel.
From here I see BTC moving up towards the 0.5 Fibonacci Retracement, closer to the end of D Wave demarcation, but not breaking resistance. BTC must also stay above the 0.382 Retracement of 9437.30 (yellow) to keep from falling into the 0.886 Pitchfork Channel.
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If BTC follows the pattern that it has since 12/21, and does not drop into the 0.886 Pitchfork Channel (purple), then I believe the yellow vertical lines are when we need to keep both eyes on BTC. HAPPY TRADING!
If BTC follows the pattern that it has since 12/21, and does not drop into the 0.886 Pitchfork Channel (purple), then I believe the yellow vertical lines are when we need to keep both eyes on BTC. HAPPY TRADING!
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First 5 Wave of new trajectory completing...I have noticed that some BTC 5"waves have another pump after Wave 5 before the ABC/DE correction...
First 5 Wave of new trajectory completing...I have noticed that some BTC 5"waves have another pump after Wave 5 before the ABC/DE correction...
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In my previous update I stated that I expected BTC to bounce within 0.75 and the 0.886 Pitchfork Channel, which BTC entered on 1/30/18, and make its way toward the 0.5 Fibonacci Retracement...and in this 7Min snapshot we can see that BTC did do that...except it was in a very minute scale.
That said I expected more buying support within this channel for at least a few days, instead we have breached the 0.886 Fibonacci Pitchfork Channel (purple), as we can see in the chart above.
We can see now that BTC is making sharper and faster moves towards the $7000 mark...
In my previous update I stated that I expected BTC to bounce within 0.75 and the 0.886 Pitchfork Channel, which BTC entered on 1/30/18, and make its way toward the 0.5 Fibonacci Retracement...and in this 7Min snapshot we can see that BTC did do that...except it was in a very minute scale.
That said I expected more buying support within this channel for at least a few days, instead we have breached the 0.886 Fibonacci Pitchfork Channel (purple), as we can see in the chart above.
We can see now that BTC is making sharper and faster moves towards the $7000 mark...
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This 1Hour chart above shows that RSI is still high (lower band set to 30), and the MACD and TTM-Squeeze Histogram are showing that we can expect continued downward momentum...
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I have now updated the target date for BTC hitting the 0.236 Fibonacci Retracement at 6967.42
And this new date will only be contingent on BTC bouncing within the 0.886 Pitchfork Channel (purple) for at least one 5 Wave...otherwise we will be at $7000 before Monday.
I have now updated the target date for BTC hitting the 0.236 Fibonacci Retracement at 6967.42
And this new date will only be contingent on BTC bouncing within the 0.886 Pitchfork Channel (purple) for at least one 5 Wave...otherwise we will be at $7000 before Monday.
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Sharper and faster moves down...
Sharper and faster moves down...
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8800...I know that none of us here are surprised right now...
8800...I know that none of us here are surprised right now...
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We will be "testing" the lower lip of the 0.886 Pitchfork Channel...soon...
We will be "testing" the lower lip of the 0.886 Pitchfork Channel...soon...
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BTC is settling in for its second bounce within the 0.886 Pitchfork Channel, at the 8400 level...It is now breaking the lower Bollinger Band in a W-Bottom/Double Bottom reversal trend, so we should expect it to bounce up again nearing the 9200 mark or slightly higher.
BTC is settling in for its second bounce within the 0.886 Pitchfork Channel, at the 8400 level...It is now breaking the lower Bollinger Band in a W-Bottom/Double Bottom reversal trend, so we should expect it to bounce up again nearing the 9200 mark or slightly higher.
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In considering whether this is the bottom, as opposed to 7k/6k/5500, I do not believe that this is the bottom since the RSI on this daily chart shows that BTC is still above the 20, hence above the oversold line...so I still have the bottom below BTC current price area.
In considering whether this is the bottom, as opposed to 7k/6k/5500, I do not believe that this is the bottom since the RSI on this daily chart shows that BTC is still above the 20, hence above the oversold line...so I still have the bottom below BTC current price area.
Bình luận:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=KS9H8v3D...
No bouncing within the 0.886 Channel and we are moving sharply towards the 0.236 Retracement target of 6967...which I am beginning to believe may not be the bottom...
No bouncing within the 0.886 Channel and we are moving sharply towards the 0.236 Retracement target of 6967...which I am beginning to believe may not be the bottom...
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Sorry for the youtube link, it was not intended! But it is a great listen for ALL CRYPTOPIANS!!! Especially today!
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We can see on the current 1Day chart that the RSI is still high for this to be the bottom...
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BTC fell out of the 0.886 Channel overnight yesterday...without much of any bounce within it, against the grain of what was expected. Now, as expected (and shown in my tweets), we are moving back into the Channel and will bounce within it for a the weekend...
BTC fell out of the 0.886 Channel overnight yesterday...without much of any bounce within it, against the grain of what was expected. Now, as expected (and shown in my tweets), we are moving back into the Channel and will bounce within it for a the weekend...
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BTC to 9000 here...full update coming shortly.
BTC to 9000 here...full update coming shortly.
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Approaching 9k
Approaching 9k
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UPDATE PART 1:
To begin this update, let us address whether BTC has found its bottom at yesterdays 7700 mark, and we are on the way back up...This chart is the RSI showing at 28.8 on the 1Day. I have my RSI set at 80 for the high and 20 for the low, and due to that I believe we still have a ways to go before we hit the real buy zone.
Looking at the MACD laid over the RSI we can still see that the MACD (aqua) is well below the signal line (purple) but is nearing bottom.
This 5Min, and the 15Min below this comment, chart shows that we are closing in on 9000, with the RSI and MACD beginning to curve up...
In this 15Min chart above we can see that BTC is moving down through Pitchfork Channels and the trend line (pink)tells us that BTC is on a 21 degree angle, as it falls forward through the channels. Note the RSI and MACD...
In this 30 min the RSI and MACD are clearly still descending, although we do sit very high above the Ichimoku cloud...
Part 2 cont...
To begin this update, let us address whether BTC has found its bottom at yesterdays 7700 mark, and we are on the way back up...This chart is the RSI showing at 28.8 on the 1Day. I have my RSI set at 80 for the high and 20 for the low, and due to that I believe we still have a ways to go before we hit the real buy zone.
This 5Min, and the 15Min below this comment, chart shows that we are closing in on 9000, with the RSI and MACD beginning to curve up...
In this 15Min chart above we can see that BTC is moving down through Pitchfork Channels and the trend line (pink)tells us that BTC is on a 21 degree angle, as it falls forward through the channels. Note the RSI and MACD...
In this 30 min the RSI and MACD are clearly still descending, although we do sit very high above the Ichimoku cloud...
Part 2 cont...
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PART 2:
This 7Min chart shows that BTC is riding up the 0.75 Fibonacci Pitchfork Channel...while down on the MACD and RSI I see a bowl forming...
And a closer look in this 2Min chart shows a potential Cup & Handle pattern forming...
This 7Min chart shows that BTC is riding up the 0.75 Fibonacci Pitchfork Channel...while down on the MACD and RSI I see a bowl forming...
And a closer look in this 2Min chart shows a potential Cup & Handle pattern forming...
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This formation will drop BTC further down another channel...bringing BTC closer to the trendline
This formation will drop BTC further down another channel...bringing BTC closer to the trendline
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To me, this all means that BTC is completing a Minor 5 Wave, which brought the price back in to the 0.886 Channel...
Fulfilling this Cup & Handle projection will bring BTC to the 0.382 Retracement level before continuing on...
to begin an ABC Retracement to 8400...
To me, this all means that BTC is completing a Minor 5 Wave, which brought the price back in to the 0.886 Channel...
Fulfilling this Cup & Handle projection will bring BTC to the 0.382 Retracement level before continuing on...
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And this would complete a Bear Flag pattern.
And this would complete a Bear Flag pattern.
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Cup & Handle is out...but Bear Flag very much still in play, even more so now.
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Adjusted.
Adjusted.
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This is the ABC retracement.
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7Min chart...follow the trend lines.
7Min chart...follow the trend lines.
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That turned out to be a much bigger cup than I expected.
That turned out to be a much bigger cup than I expected.
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8400, and falling...as predicted.
8400, and falling...as predicted.
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And our Bear Flag is now completing...
And our Bear Flag is now completing...
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We might see 8000 before the kickoff of the Super Bowl...
We might see 8000 before the kickoff of the Super Bowl...
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Should the current trajectory hold...
Should the current trajectory hold...
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BTC Halftime Show...right on time...
BTC Halftime Show...right on time...
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This 1Hour shows the end of Wave E, the end of the correction, which was placed last week. BTC is sitting on trend line now while bouncing into and soon out of the 0.886 Pitchfork Channel; the trend line also hits the top of Wave 1 at the left of the chart. We are nearing bottom...
This 1Hour shows the end of Wave E, the end of the correction, which was placed last week. BTC is sitting on trend line now while bouncing into and soon out of the 0.886 Pitchfork Channel; the trend line also hits the top of Wave 1 at the left of the chart. We are nearing bottom...
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BTC following that trend line...are you ready?
BTC following that trend line...are you ready?
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Get ready...
Get ready...
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End Zone in sight my friends...
End Zone in sight my friends...
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Market order in at 7350...next stop 8800
Market order in at 7350...next stop 8800
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This correction is FAR from over my friends...RSI still high on the 1Day...
More TA coming soon, in the meantime please share this thread with your friends and loved ones- so we can all benefit from each other, and please follow on twitter to stay current with all my charts!
twitter.com/Juni0rLancaster
THANK YOU and HAPPY TRADING!
This correction is FAR from over my friends...RSI still high on the 1Day...
More TA coming soon, in the meantime please share this thread with your friends and loved ones- so we can all benefit from each other, and please follow on twitter to stay current with all my charts!
twitter.com/Juni0rLancaster
THANK YOU and HAPPY TRADING!
Bình luận:
7000 still looking 100% in play...
7000 still looking 100% in play...
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I promise myself, and all of you, I will never ever ever second guess my BTC TA ever again. I swear.
I promise myself, and all of you, I will never ever ever second guess my BTC TA ever again. I swear.
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----------------------------------------UPDATE---------------------------------------------------
BTC RSI is still not at the threshold of safely saying that we should be rising...although this chart says 2/6 it is slightly skewed...
This 1Day shows the true placement of when I think we will be nearing this point on the RSI...
The 4Hour shows us approaching the 20 mark...
1Hour shows us moving sideways under the 20 RSI and beginning to look up...
And the 30Min is looking very healthy after these dreadful hours of slow descent...If we can stay above the 0.236 at 7000 by the time trend line, BTC could have the bounce we have all been looking for...
On the 5Min we can already see a push from the Bulls that are over this long drag through the mud...
BTC RSI is still not at the threshold of safely saying that we should be rising...although this chart says 2/6 it is slightly skewed...
This 1Day shows the true placement of when I think we will be nearing this point on the RSI...
The 4Hour shows us approaching the 20 mark...
1Hour shows us moving sideways under the 20 RSI and beginning to look up...
And the 30Min is looking very healthy after these dreadful hours of slow descent...If we can stay above the 0.236 at 7000 by the time trend line, BTC could have the bounce we have all been looking for...
On the 5Min we can already see a push from the Bulls that are over this long drag through the mud...
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This 1Day chart shows that we are not out of this correction yet...as for those out there posting content that says that BTC has been oversold do not have their low line set at 20, which is the only way to chart cryto- especially Bitcoin. We can also see a lower Bollinger Band break which should cause and up tick from here...that will not mean the end of the correction since we can see that this has happened before during this correction.
This 1Day chart shows that we are not out of this correction yet...as for those out there posting content that says that BTC has been oversold do not have their low line set at 20, which is the only way to chart cryto- especially Bitcoin. We can also see a lower Bollinger Band break which should cause and up tick from here...that will not mean the end of the correction since we can see that this has happened before during this correction.
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Next BTC support levels...
Next BTC support levels...
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After bouncing up from 5811 BTC has completed a Major 5 Wave and is now consolidating towards a convergence point of all on my Fibonacci indicators..BTC failed to break resistance at 7900 on 3 attempts...
After bouncing up from 5811 BTC has completed a Major 5 Wave and is now consolidating towards a convergence point of all on my Fibonacci indicators..BTC failed to break resistance at 7900 on 3 attempts...
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Support levels:
7250
7156
6967
Support levels:
7250
7156
6967
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It appears that BTC is headed up a 5 Wave and that we are currently in Wave 3...I am watching this like a hawk right now...
It appears that BTC is headed up a 5 Wave and that we are currently in Wave 3...I am watching this like a hawk right now...
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---------------------------------UPDATE---------------------------------------
Since my previous post, BTC fell out of the Fibonacci channels breaking the wave that I believed BTC was then forming...in the 15Min chart above we can see BTC wave completions since the 5800 bounce...
This chart, with added Fibonacci Pitchfork, Retracement, and Wedge shows that BTC is testing 8644 from the previous high and Fib level...this test would also complete the % Wave that began at 5800 on 2/6/18...
A 5 Wave is followed by a correction, either ABC or aBCDE, which would bring the price down to same level as the end of Wave 4 in the preceding 5 Wave...
such a retracement would take BTC to the 0.5 retracement level of 7278 on Coinbase...
Moving out to the 4hour chart above we see how BTC has fallen through all of the Fibonacci Pitchfork channels on the daily level...
This 1Hour chart shows BTC's bounce above the Ichimoku cloud, which a retracement would bring BTC very close to...
Zooming out to the 8Hour BTC lower Bollinger Band breaks show where BTC has climbed back up to the Basis Line (pink) before continuing its descent...
The only time that BTC broke above the Basis line for an extended period was from 1/2/18 to 1/6/18...
...this was when the Ichimoku cloud Conversion Line (blue) was making its cross over the Ichimoku cloud Base Line (red)...note that this was the only time this has occurred since December 22, even now...which means that BTC is still in
correction trending down...
All of this is making me start to believe that a different correction may be playing out than initially seen.
Since my previous post, BTC fell out of the Fibonacci channels breaking the wave that I believed BTC was then forming...in the 15Min chart above we can see BTC wave completions since the 5800 bounce...
This chart, with added Fibonacci Pitchfork, Retracement, and Wedge shows that BTC is testing 8644 from the previous high and Fib level...this test would also complete the % Wave that began at 5800 on 2/6/18...
A 5 Wave is followed by a correction, either ABC or aBCDE, which would bring the price down to same level as the end of Wave 4 in the preceding 5 Wave...
such a retracement would take BTC to the 0.5 retracement level of 7278 on Coinbase...
Moving out to the 4hour chart above we see how BTC has fallen through all of the Fibonacci Pitchfork channels on the daily level...
This 1Hour chart shows BTC's bounce above the Ichimoku cloud, which a retracement would bring BTC very close to...
Zooming out to the 8Hour BTC lower Bollinger Band breaks show where BTC has climbed back up to the Basis Line (pink) before continuing its descent...
The only time that BTC broke above the Basis line for an extended period was from 1/2/18 to 1/6/18...
...this was when the Ichimoku cloud Conversion Line (blue) was making its cross over the Ichimoku cloud Base Line (red)...note that this was the only time this has occurred since December 22, even now...which means that BTC is still in
correction trending down...
All of this is making me start to believe that a different correction may be playing out than initially seen.
Bình luận:
---------------------------------UPDATE-----------------------------------
BTC is rounding over, completing the Bear Flag that began at the 5800 bounce...
Here we can see BTC is retesting the 0.786 at 8062...
When it fails here, expect a descent to the 0.5 at 7278...
BTC is rounding over, completing the Bear Flag that began at the 5800 bounce...
Here we can see BTC is retesting the 0.786 at 8062...
When it fails here, expect a descent to the 0.5 at 7278...
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---------------------------------------UPDATE-------------------------------------------------
As you all know I have not changed my stance on the direction of BTC and the state of the correction, which is still continuing-
As we have all witnessed, BTC likes to repeat itself, on the micro and macro scale...in a previous update I pointed out that BTC was repeating a previous impulse wave followed by a cup that eventually led to the completion of a Bear Flag....well, once again BTC is repeating itself...
The 4Hour chart above shows that BTC is in a pattern that already happened from 1/17-1/24....most notable in this is the lower Bollinger Band break...what is striking about this is that in the previous pattern, and currently, it is the only time that BTC price has moved from a lower Bollinger Band break to an upper Bollinger Band break (another pattern confirmation)...
Zooming in on the current time frame in this 1Hour chart we see the arrow, which has not been moved, pointing at our current price and time...
Looking closer at the pattern from 1/17-1/24 we can see the extended correction of 7 waves that BTC, and many other cryptos, tend to have (this is my personal theory, which has been confirmed in my eyes by historical data)...this also applies to impulse waves, which BTC just completed an impulse of 7 Waves...
Making the projection based on this theory and data, I see BTC now continuing on to complete local Wave G (and thus coming to the completion of Major Wave E of the correction that began on 12/21/17).
Adding a Fibonacci Retracement we can see that BTC has been respecting these levels during this local trend...As for 5800 again being the bottom, I do not believe that this will be the case if this scenario plays out. I believe that a return to the 5800 level will cause another Weak-Hand Sell-Off that will take BTC to the 4200 Fibonacci level...
As you all know I have not changed my stance on the direction of BTC and the state of the correction, which is still continuing-
As we have all witnessed, BTC likes to repeat itself, on the micro and macro scale...in a previous update I pointed out that BTC was repeating a previous impulse wave followed by a cup that eventually led to the completion of a Bear Flag....well, once again BTC is repeating itself...
The 4Hour chart above shows that BTC is in a pattern that already happened from 1/17-1/24....most notable in this is the lower Bollinger Band break...what is striking about this is that in the previous pattern, and currently, it is the only time that BTC price has moved from a lower Bollinger Band break to an upper Bollinger Band break (another pattern confirmation)...
Zooming in on the current time frame in this 1Hour chart we see the arrow, which has not been moved, pointing at our current price and time...
Looking closer at the pattern from 1/17-1/24 we can see the extended correction of 7 waves that BTC, and many other cryptos, tend to have (this is my personal theory, which has been confirmed in my eyes by historical data)...this also applies to impulse waves, which BTC just completed an impulse of 7 Waves...
Making the projection based on this theory and data, I see BTC now continuing on to complete local Wave G (and thus coming to the completion of Major Wave E of the correction that began on 12/21/17).
Adding a Fibonacci Retracement we can see that BTC has been respecting these levels during this local trend...As for 5800 again being the bottom, I do not believe that this will be the case if this scenario plays out. I believe that a return to the 5800 level will cause another Weak-Hand Sell-Off that will take BTC to the 4200 Fibonacci level...
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---------------------------------------------------UPDATE-----------------------------------------------
We will begin this update by pointing out the local and major Fibonacci and support levels for buy and sell points...
This 7min chart shows the current local levels and the 15Min chart below shows the levels we have come from...
On this 2Day chart above I have highlighted the support levels that EVERYONE should keep an eye on, not excluding the Fibonacci Retracement levels of $5182 and $900...yes you red that correctly...I am not saying that this is where we are heading, which I will be getting to shortly, I just want everyone to be knowledgeable of these levels...
As I have said, and I have not ever changed my tune nor have I attempted to hedge my analysis by given different scenarios, we are still in the correction. We will be going back down t o the 5800 mark, at least...
BTC loves to repeat itself, not in an exact manner or candle-by-candle, but certainly in a general pattern sense...with that knowledge I have taken a fractal from the previous slide down from 9k-5800 since they have the same general pattern...adding in the Fibonacci Retracement helps to confirm, in my eyes, how this pattern is feasible...most important to remember is that bitcoin is losing momentum in this correction- think of a bouncing rubber ball that bounces to lower highs in shorter spans...
Adding in the 233-Day Moving Average (orange line) we can see in this 30Min chart above that it is currently converging with the Lead Line (red) and the Conversion Line (blue) and as I type this the price of BTC is dropping to the Base Line (yellow)...all of which are bearish signals...
So how important is the 233-Day Moving Average? Lets take a closer look...
This 24Hour chart currently shows the 233MA now moving above the price of BTC...also note that the RSI is above 20 still, which until it goes under 20 we cannot say that the bottom has been reached...
Now why are the 233MA and RSI important on the 1Day scale? Because this scenario has only occured TWICE before...during BTC's only actual previous crashes...
The first time was 8/1/2015...after which BTC moved sideways for about a month and a half until going parabolic...
The second time, and most recently, was 8/1/2016, and it was again followed by about 6 weeks of sideways movement before it began making its way to the ATH in December.
So, with that all said, my undiluted and blatant position is that BTC will continue to move down to the 5800 mark in the manner posted in the chart above...when it reaches that point another sell-off will ensue taking the price of Bitcoin to a range between 4200-4800, at which point BTC will be under 20 on the RSI. After a period of sideways movement, which can not be determined, yet, BTC will begin the rise we have all been waiting for to the mark of 34000 by June.
If I am wrong I am wrong, but at least I am being clear on my position.
Happy Trading!
We will begin this update by pointing out the local and major Fibonacci and support levels for buy and sell points...
This 7min chart shows the current local levels and the 15Min chart below shows the levels we have come from...
On this 2Day chart above I have highlighted the support levels that EVERYONE should keep an eye on, not excluding the Fibonacci Retracement levels of $5182 and $900...yes you red that correctly...I am not saying that this is where we are heading, which I will be getting to shortly, I just want everyone to be knowledgeable of these levels...
As I have said, and I have not ever changed my tune nor have I attempted to hedge my analysis by given different scenarios, we are still in the correction. We will be going back down t o the 5800 mark, at least...
BTC loves to repeat itself, not in an exact manner or candle-by-candle, but certainly in a general pattern sense...with that knowledge I have taken a fractal from the previous slide down from 9k-5800 since they have the same general pattern...adding in the Fibonacci Retracement helps to confirm, in my eyes, how this pattern is feasible...most important to remember is that bitcoin is losing momentum in this correction- think of a bouncing rubber ball that bounces to lower highs in shorter spans...
Adding in the 233-Day Moving Average (orange line) we can see in this 30Min chart above that it is currently converging with the Lead Line (red) and the Conversion Line (blue) and as I type this the price of BTC is dropping to the Base Line (yellow)...all of which are bearish signals...
So how important is the 233-Day Moving Average? Lets take a closer look...
This 24Hour chart currently shows the 233MA now moving above the price of BTC...also note that the RSI is above 20 still, which until it goes under 20 we cannot say that the bottom has been reached...
Now why are the 233MA and RSI important on the 1Day scale? Because this scenario has only occured TWICE before...during BTC's only actual previous crashes...
The first time was 8/1/2015...after which BTC moved sideways for about a month and a half until going parabolic...
The second time, and most recently, was 8/1/2016, and it was again followed by about 6 weeks of sideways movement before it began making its way to the ATH in December.
So, with that all said, my undiluted and blatant position is that BTC will continue to move down to the 5800 mark in the manner posted in the chart above...when it reaches that point another sell-off will ensue taking the price of Bitcoin to a range between 4200-4800, at which point BTC will be under 20 on the RSI. After a period of sideways movement, which can not be determined, yet, BTC will begin the rise we have all been waiting for to the mark of 34000 by June.
If I am wrong I am wrong, but at least I am being clear on my position.
Happy Trading!
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----------------------QUICK UPDATE----------------------
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BTC is proving difficult to read in the long term...and I am still not convinced that it is 100% out of correction...
As for now I can see BTC moving up a Major Elliott Wave potentially taking the price upwards of 10k...
MAJOR UPDATE COMING SOON.
As for now I can see BTC moving up a Major Elliott Wave potentially taking the price upwards of 10k...
MAJOR UPDATE COMING SOON.
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------------------------UPDATE---------------------------
In this 1Day chart we can see that that the bounce from 5800 has transitioned into green daily candles that have broken the upper trend line (not shown)...
A closer look on this 8Hour, we can see that BTC is moving towards the true reversal price zone of 12000 that will definitively signal the end of the correction. At this price BTC will be above the Ichimoku cloud as well as the 233-Day Moving Average...
Looking on the 4Hour we can see that BTC is approaching over bought on the RSI...
As BTC briefly crosses the 10300 mark, the RSI and MACD are showing a repeated push at the 80 level while momentum is starting to slow down...The Elliott Wave Oscillator also shows a loss of momentum...
We can see that BTC is making another attempt at the 10300, if it does not break the Fib and continue up to 11200, BTC will begin a correction down to 9400...while this is a 5 wave currently, BTC has not been respecting anything, let alone wave completions.
Updates will be coming to you this weekend from the Bitcoin Super Conference in Dallas...Happy Trading!
In this 1Day chart we can see that that the bounce from 5800 has transitioned into green daily candles that have broken the upper trend line (not shown)...
Looking on the 4Hour we can see that BTC is approaching over bought on the RSI...
As BTC briefly crosses the 10300 mark, the RSI and MACD are showing a repeated push at the 80 level while momentum is starting to slow down...The Elliott Wave Oscillator also shows a loss of momentum...
We can see that BTC is making another attempt at the 10300, if it does not break the Fib and continue up to 11200, BTC will begin a correction down to 9400...while this is a 5 wave currently, BTC has not been respecting anything, let alone wave completions.
Updates will be coming to you this weekend from the Bitcoin Super Conference in Dallas...Happy Trading!
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----------------------UPDATE-------------------
In my previous update I projected BTC making it's way down a wave 4 at around 10300...as we all know now the bulls, or a few whales, kept at it after the market closed on Friday and have now pushed the price upwards of 10800...which means that corrective Wave 4 has yet to occur...
This 1Hour chart shows that Major Wave 3 should be coming to completion soon, as it has gone through 5 waves within it...
With this I see BTC moving up to the 11000 mark before making its way down Major Ave 4 to the 9000-9200 area...
On the 30/15/5 Min charts above, looking at the RSI and MACD, we can see that BTC still has a little more steam to blow off before correcting...
Zooming out on the 4Hour, shows my overall view of BTC since 5800...as you have read in a previous update, it is my belief that BTC and other cryptos engage in 7-Waves sometimes...I believe that the next corrective wave will either be an ABCDE or a 7-Wave correction- which may bring it lower than the 9000 to the 8600 range if a small panic sell occurs.
More to come...
In my previous update I projected BTC making it's way down a wave 4 at around 10300...as we all know now the bulls, or a few whales, kept at it after the market closed on Friday and have now pushed the price upwards of 10800...which means that corrective Wave 4 has yet to occur...
This 1Hour chart shows that Major Wave 3 should be coming to completion soon, as it has gone through 5 waves within it...
With this I see BTC moving up to the 11000 mark before making its way down Major Ave 4 to the 9000-9200 area...
On the 30/15/5 Min charts above, looking at the RSI and MACD, we can see that BTC still has a little more steam to blow off before correcting...
Zooming out on the 4Hour, shows my overall view of BTC since 5800...as you have read in a previous update, it is my belief that BTC and other cryptos engage in 7-Waves sometimes...I believe that the next corrective wave will either be an ABCDE or a 7-Wave correction- which may bring it lower than the 9000 to the 8600 range if a small panic sell occurs.
More to come...
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-------------------------UPDATE----------------------
I WAS WRONG...
BTC is still in Wave 3...YES...WAVE 3...
Wave 4 has yet to materialize and a look on this 4Hour shows that that correction we had, that lasted forever could not have been a Wave 4 retracement...
The 15Min shows a closer look at Wave 5 of Primary 3.
I WAS WRONG...
BTC is still in Wave 3...YES...WAVE 3...
Wave 4 has yet to materialize and a look on this 4Hour shows that that correction we had, that lasted forever could not have been a Wave 4 retracement...
The 15Min shows a closer look at Wave 5 of Primary 3.
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On this 5Min we can see that BTC has completed the ABC of Wave 4 within Wave 5 of Primary Wave 3.
On this 5Min we can see that BTC has completed the ABC of Wave 4 within Wave 5 of Primary Wave 3.
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-------------------------------UPDATE-------------------------------
Hello friends...I apologize for the delay in this much needed update, but I wanted to make sure of my analysis before disseminating...
On the 1Day we can see that BTC has had its first non-green candle since February 11, a Bearish (red) Spinning Top...
As seen in the last chart of my previous update, BTC hit 11775, just over my call of 11700 being the end of Primary Wave 3...and now we have already entered into the corrective Wave 4, of which I believe will end up being an ABCDE...
This 1Day gives you an overall look at what I see...
Zooming in to the 4Hour I have plotted the ABCDE that will make up The Primary Wave 4 correction taking BTC down to 9500...
The 1Hour shows that BTC is already following this prediction with it finding current support on the 0.786, after which I see it bouncing down off of the Major Upper Trend Line before dropping down to the 0.618 at 9500...BTC is also about to kiss the 233-Day Moving Average (orange) here as well...
I know that in the last day there have been many analysts stating online the possibility of a truncated Primary Wave 5...well, if you have been a member of our Discord group at Crypto World News discord.gg/sxPGjXN (which is FREE) or a subscriber to our Twitch stream www.twitch.tv/cryptoworldnews where I chart live sessions for FREE, then you will know that I have been stating this for a long time- truncated wave 5's and 7-Wave impulse and corrections are very common in BTC...
I have also been saying that this entire impulse wave which began at 5811 is the biggest, and most manipulated, Bear Flag you have ever seen. Bear Flag, Bull Trap, whatever you choose to call it- they mean the same thing and point in the same direction...
BTC's Primary Wave 5 will be a truncated wave that will bounce down, once again, from the Major Upper Trend Line where it meets the 0.786 at 10468.74...
After every impulse 5-Wave comes a correction...in this case it will be a primary correction wave...
Looking back on the larger time interval scale we will look at pattern recognition, for which colors are very, very important...
In this 1Day chart I have isolated the correction to prior to the 5811 impulse wave...you can see that it has, using the points I have marked, made 5 Waves (these are not the points I am using for our correction, which I will post below, but I want you to look at the colors and pattern)...now lets see the colors a little better...
Now lets look at the 1Week chart while including the current impulse wave...
We do not need to add colored channels to see the pattern...the way it appears we still have a major leg down to go...
...as seen here...the placement of the end of Wave E is by using a parallel channel following the upper trend line...but lets look at what it will be if we use the lower trend line of the parallel channel...
Let's take one more look at BTC currently on the 1Hour before I publish this update...
Still on point.
Stay tuned my friends. I love you. Happy Trading!
Hello friends...I apologize for the delay in this much needed update, but I wanted to make sure of my analysis before disseminating...
On the 1Day we can see that BTC has had its first non-green candle since February 11, a Bearish (red) Spinning Top...
As seen in the last chart of my previous update, BTC hit 11775, just over my call of 11700 being the end of Primary Wave 3...and now we have already entered into the corrective Wave 4, of which I believe will end up being an ABCDE...
This 1Day gives you an overall look at what I see...
Zooming in to the 4Hour I have plotted the ABCDE that will make up The Primary Wave 4 correction taking BTC down to 9500...
The 1Hour shows that BTC is already following this prediction with it finding current support on the 0.786, after which I see it bouncing down off of the Major Upper Trend Line before dropping down to the 0.618 at 9500...BTC is also about to kiss the 233-Day Moving Average (orange) here as well...
I know that in the last day there have been many analysts stating online the possibility of a truncated Primary Wave 5...well, if you have been a member of our Discord group at Crypto World News discord.gg/sxPGjXN (which is FREE) or a subscriber to our Twitch stream www.twitch.tv/cryptoworldnews where I chart live sessions for FREE, then you will know that I have been stating this for a long time- truncated wave 5's and 7-Wave impulse and corrections are very common in BTC...
I have also been saying that this entire impulse wave which began at 5811 is the biggest, and most manipulated, Bear Flag you have ever seen. Bear Flag, Bull Trap, whatever you choose to call it- they mean the same thing and point in the same direction...
BTC's Primary Wave 5 will be a truncated wave that will bounce down, once again, from the Major Upper Trend Line where it meets the 0.786 at 10468.74...
After every impulse 5-Wave comes a correction...in this case it will be a primary correction wave...
Looking back on the larger time interval scale we will look at pattern recognition, for which colors are very, very important...
In this 1Day chart I have isolated the correction to prior to the 5811 impulse wave...you can see that it has, using the points I have marked, made 5 Waves (these are not the points I am using for our correction, which I will post below, but I want you to look at the colors and pattern)...now lets see the colors a little better...
Now lets look at the 1Week chart while including the current impulse wave...
We do not need to add colored channels to see the pattern...the way it appears we still have a major leg down to go...
...as seen here...the placement of the end of Wave E is by using a parallel channel following the upper trend line...but lets look at what it will be if we use the lower trend line of the parallel channel...
Let's take one more look at BTC currently on the 1Hour before I publish this update...
Still on point.
Stay tuned my friends. I love you. Happy Trading!
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One more thing friends, I know that this is a VERY long thread, but the reason that I don't change it and just make a new publication is because I hold myself accountable for what I post. I don't make multiple assumptions, I don't skirt around my mistakes, and I am the first to say if I am wrong. In this social media age people are quick to forget what happened 5 minutes ago and only think about what they are currently looking at...by maintaining this thread I remove myself from being able to hide from a wrong call. I hold myself accountable first. I hope that is appreciated.
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---------------------UPDATE------------------------------
www.youtube.com/chan...FkFhQpXnUFtDILA/live
Wave 5 is LIVE on youtube...
www.youtube.com/chan...FkFhQpXnUFtDILA/live
Wave 5 is LIVE on youtube...
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---------------------------------------------UPDATE-------------------------------------
First I hope that you enjoyed the live stream, when I thread the needle to 10500, and LTC to 218....
As for BTC here I have a serious of charts below showing what I am seeing. This will be a limited text update as I am traveling. I think you should be able to read my charts at this point...
4Hour
1Hour
15Min
5Min
I believe that BTC has yet to begin Primary Wave 5, of the impulse wave that began at 5800...The impulse wave is a bear flag, that once completed will turn jus down in to a major corrective to new lows.
Happy Trading!
First I hope that you enjoyed the live stream, when I thread the needle to 10500, and LTC to 218....
As for BTC here I have a serious of charts below showing what I am seeing. This will be a limited text update as I am traveling. I think you should be able to read my charts at this point...
I believe that BTC has yet to begin Primary Wave 5, of the impulse wave that began at 5800...The impulse wave is a bear flag, that once completed will turn jus down in to a major corrective to new lows.
Happy Trading!
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Spelling error: series not serious
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turn us around
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-----------------------------UPDATE-----------------------------
Prior to the weekend BTC completed a an Impulse 5 Wave before moving down the last leg of the ABC corrective Wave 4 from 11800... BTC was then crossing 3 major support levels...
(Wave-4-5-Cup)
... at which time it bounced up the pitchfork channel at 9300...that bounce then became Wave 1 of Primary Wave 5...
1Hour
30Min
As I have been seeing lately, looking at the 30Min chart below...
I saw another Wave-4-5-Cup formation (this could very well be a flag for some, but it looks more like a cup to me)...when I see this occurring I know that Wave 5 has yet to complete itself or to begin...a pattern we will see more of...it can actually be seen in the fourth chart above this on a 5Min chart...
...and another Cup at the top of Wave 3, which later would be Wave 4-5 of Wave 3...
...the cup continued to form and complete at 10450...an ABC then continued to make another, shallow, Wave-4-5-Cup (flag)...I know it seems like I am just repeating myself about this pattern but it is EVERYWHERE in BTC...
As I am sure you can all remember from my tweets this weekend, and the YouTube live-stream on Friday night, I have been calling 10500 for a while now- we hit that in the early hours of 2/27/18...
As for what I am looking for now, we look at the 1Hour...I still believe that we are within an ABC of Wave 4 within Primary 5 from 5811...which should complete at 11900.
Prior to the weekend BTC completed a an Impulse 5 Wave before moving down the last leg of the ABC corrective Wave 4 from 11800... BTC was then crossing 3 major support levels...
... at which time it bounced up the pitchfork channel at 9300...that bounce then became Wave 1 of Primary Wave 5...
1Hour
As I have been seeing lately, looking at the 30Min chart below...
...and another Cup at the top of Wave 3, which later would be Wave 4-5 of Wave 3...
...the cup continued to form and complete at 10450...an ABC then continued to make another, shallow, Wave-4-5-Cup (flag)...I know it seems like I am just repeating myself about this pattern but it is EVERYWHERE in BTC...
As for what I am looking for now, we look at the 1Hour...I still believe that we are within an ABC of Wave 4 within Primary 5 from 5811...which should complete at 11900.
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10900!! not 11900
"As for what I am looking for now, we look at the 1Hour...I still believe that we are within an ABC of Wave 4 within Primary 5 from 5811...which should complete at 11900."
"As for what I am looking for now, we look at the 1Hour...I still believe that we are within an ABC of Wave 4 within Primary 5 from 5811...which should complete at 11900."
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Than kyou all for the love and support! WOW 14400 views!, May not be a lot for some of the famous analysts but it means the Moon to me...I love you all, thank you!
This analysis post is officially concluded.
This analysis post is officially concluded.
Here we can see the overall picture of BTC now. The price has moved from the 0.5 Pitchfork Fib Channel (green) at the ATH to the 0.75 Channel (lighter blue) the price finds itself in in this chart. It is also evident on this larger time interval scale that BTC is making lower highs and lower lows...and the RSI is still relatively high for something that is supposed to be rocketing to the moon at any second...