D4rkEnergY is back - once again - with a comparison from 2014. No one can deny, that it has some scary/interesting similarities. I heard some few people mention, that it's not relevant to make such comparisons.
My answer to those people are: "You are wrong! It's as simple as that"
You have to remember, that, THAT is the most fundamental thing about TA and Trading. If we didn't believe in, that markets didn't move in repetitive waves, cycles and patterns, and everything just was chaos, no one would have the ability to predict anything - and it would be pure gambling!
We are here taking look at the Weekly BTCUSD Chart. In this chart I have tried to calculate how high we would go in 2019 (Q1), if we applied the 2014-2017 price movements to a 2019-prediction. First of all, it's important to be aware of, that the new market moves 2,5 times as fast than back then.
As you can I'm still bearish short term, and think we will go under 5,000 USD. But who cares? Then we can in the meantime get some cheap ALTCOINS, and after we have hit a double bottom 2 times (blue line) we are ready for a NEW Bull Run!
Let me be clear this is only speculation (and no one can obviously not predict something like this), but it's definitely not impossible to reach this target, if we see new institutional buyers soon come in!
So Ladies And Gentleman - "expect" Bitcoin to reach 70,597 USD in less than a year!!
D4 Loves You <3
Please give a LIKE - As always, it's much appreciated - Thank you my friends :)
Yes, and my crystal ball tells me it will be $12,524.38...
Anybody else crystal balls?...
AesopsHare
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@SoonicTM, From a position of fundamental analysis, Btc would need a market cap of around 1.2trn to achieve $70,000 per coin and if the 'market dominance' of btc is kept in line at roughly 40% that would give a total crypto market cap of around 3trn. To achieve this it would be necessary to have substantial inflow of capital from somewhere other than the current speculators.
It is not implausible that a wobble in the bond markets (currently valued over 100trn) could create a redistribution of capital to find a home in cryptos; if lending money to governments suddenly becomes less appealing and global stock markets are also looking a little tired, where else could you park capital? So lets assume 1-2% of this is hunting for a new home..
Since almost all trades start with Bitcoin, the inflow could create an initial spike in price before finding it's way to alt coins, so although a prediction of bitcoin at $70,000 may currently seem inconceivable, it is certainly possible as it becomes a more established part of the financial markets.
If @D4rkEnergY 70k bitcoin is likely to happen, then waiting for an absolute bottom is potentially higher risk than dollar averaging in over the coming weeks/months.
SoonicTM
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@AesopsHare, Anything possible I'm not denying that. And thank you for somewhat more reasonable argument, comparing to TV average.
What I personally cannot stand is shouty announcements like above, which WILL mislead masses of readers. Hence my sarcastic (bright will spot it) comments around. Some TV members try too hard to grow their paid membership services outside of here, with populistic analysis and articles.
Everybody to each own.
XLukaz
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@SoonicTM, I have! BTC-2.489.302.04 to 14th December 2021 1:39 PM Central Europe Time Zone.
joachim.snellings
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@SoonicTM, I have crystal balls, but unfortunately they are not very accurate in predicting bitcoin prices
HoudiniX
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Hey, I really like your work and comparisons, but I like to point out something. In 2014 futures contracts did not exist and there were not as many coins and competition back then. Therefore the price action we're witnessing is very different to 2014.
l837456
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@QueenBx, well said. Using one chart and such a small amount of data to determine the next move is silly. He’s an entertainer that’s about it.
Priza
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I'm sorry D4rk, but your reasoning is wrong; the factors that contributed to the evolution of the price belong to the moment and in no way can be used as a reference point, that's why they are called variables :)
misterphelps
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I don't contest that "markets... move in repetitive waves, cycles and patterns...". This is the basis of looking for fractals and Fibonacci numbers, etc. The problem I have with your (and a few other TAs) 2014 comparison to the past several months (i.e.,late 2017 to present) is that this fractal is from 4 years ago. At this time scale, a repeating pattern of fractals or (perhaps two very, very large fractals) should be clearly seen over multiple years (from 2012 - 2018) not months.
In order to for this 'hypothesis' to be truly plausible, you would have to look at the weekly or monthly charts and look back at 2013 (and perhaps even 2012) and see if the there are fractals (very similar sequences) that led up to the 2014 rise and subsequent fall and then rise again. Then see if 2016 and 2017 had similar precursor fractals. It would be even stronger if you drill down into the dailies and saw sub-fractals that were shared in 2013/2014/2015 vs. 2016/2017/2018. What about 2010/2011/2012? Was there a similar fractal that can be seen over those years as well?
Right now, what you (and a few others are showing) is just one potential static fractal comparison in a short-time window (relatively speaking). One fractal comparison is interesting but statistically lacks conviction without a pre- and post- repetitive sequence that can be clearly observed from 2012/2013/2014 and again in 2016/2017/2018.
Obviously, the other issue here, is that the market dynamics and drivers at present are completely different compared to 4-5 years ago. Overall, I think it considerably more difficult (albeit possible) to hypothesize about fractals over multi-year time-frames as opposed to looking at fractal over hours, days and weeks--especially in much less mature markets. So, IMHO, i am not yet convinced (with the data I am seeing) that what happened in 2014 is a fractal of what we are seeing at present.