Welcome friends, foes, animals, aliens, my family of crypto lovers, to this one-of-a-kind, oh-so spectacular analysis on the big mac daddy of crypto, BITCOIN! Let's get right to it! Looking at the four hour chart, you can see that the false flag has broken to the downside. If you missed my update on my last BTC post, I talked about how BTC was forming a pattern that I have dubbed the "false flag." Throughout my years of experience as an analyst and a trader, I have seen this formation time and time again. However, for some reason, it isn't really identified in any literature that I've seen. So, I've decided to just call it a false flag. What happens, is that a flagpole is formed, and then price enters a rising consolidation phase, which extends higher than the flagpole. These patterns almost always break to the downside, and that is what occurred here in BTC.
However, the breakdown was bought by the bulls, and you can see that price rose again, but BTC continues to find resistance right on my 61.8% retrace. So, I think it's pretty clear that the buyers are becoming exhausted. On the MACD, you can see that the momentum is rolling over, and the volume has below average. The volume indicator also shows an increase in selling pressure, as the red volume bars beigin to rise above the green. With that said, I do expect BTC to turn to the downside, in the relatively near future, to begin to test for support below the market. The first support level will be the 20 EMA (in blue,) followed by the top of the downtrend channel (in black.) Now, I don't believe that the 20 EMA will hold, because it's more likely that the market will sell into the top of the channel. Nobody really cares about the 20 EMA right now. Traders want to know if the top of the downtrend channel will be supportive. Therefore, there is a high probability that we will return to the top of the downtrend channel, to test it for support. By the time we get down there, assuming we start heading down today, the top of the channel could be converging with he 50 EMA (in orange) which would increase that area as a support level.
With that said, I am neutral on the market at this point. The bulls have managed to print a significant technical advancement, by surpassing the top of the downtrend channel. However, that isn't enough for me just yet. I need to see the top of the channel get a big supportive hold, before I even consider any longs in this market. Ideally, I would like to see BTC break back down below the channel, producing a big failed breakout here. That would be very much inline with the overall bearish trend, and (for educational purposes) it would be a fantastic entry point for shorting this market.
If you've noticed, there is another moving average on this chart. It's the 1200 EMA (in purple,) which is drifting above the current price action. The 1200 EMA, on the four hour chart, is equivalent to the 200 EMA on the daily chart. So, in essence, that's the 200 EMA from the daily time frame. If BTC manages to find it's way up there, the 1200 EMA should be majorly resistive. In my opinion, (for educational purposes) that too would be a great spot for a short entry, should BTC confirm resistance there.
So, with that said, I am neutral to bearish on this market. Yes, we've broken above the downtrend channel, but BTC broke above the downtrend channel in February too. That breakout inevitably failed, and it only ended up widening the channel from it's original form. So, I need to see some more from the bulls, if they want to get my attention. Because right now, all I see are great shorting opportunities.
I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
So much hate in there, because a person is posting his personnal view of a market?
This is insane and it deserves an explanation.
UnknownUnicorn1780802
⋅
@Giorgioversace, The market is full of bulls and bears. You are going to have bulls disagreeing with bears, and bears disagreeing with bulls. This is normal. But to use profanity or personal attacks is wrong and should not be tolerated. Nothing wrong with arguing both sides. But, we don't live in a perfect world unfortunately.
Giovi6969
⋅
@lvg3g,
It is normal to disagree about different opinions, but i don't see disagreement, i see hate in there.
This guy is taking his time to post some TAs and he is getting instant hate.
Some people in there are starting to lose their mind, as they probably lost a lot of money, this market is absolutely not healthy for late comers millenials mind
Kynlyn
⋅
@Giorgioversace, It's largely because a huge majority of "traders" here on TA just want someone to tell them what to do. Of course, even the best traders will be wrong, a lot, and these same people come back and yell and scream about the "bad advice" someone gave. They blow up their trading accounts and disappear and a new crop replaces them. Rinse. Repeat.
People want free advice, so here it is:
1. Take responsibility for your own trades. If you lose money it is always your fault. Always. Not the whales. Not the guy writing the TA. Yours. You can't improve your trading skills if you blame someone else every time the market moves against you.
2. Trade small.
3. Manage your risks. It's a numbers game made up of probabilities. Even if you think you have an edge and can push the odds in your favor, you will lose at times. Probably a lot more than you expect. If you play big gambles, then the math just works against you.
4. Have a system and follow it. Develop your own rules for entry, exit and position sizing. And follow them. Every time. Don't get emotional. Trade mechanically.
Anyone who is an experienced trader will largely agree with what I just said. If you don't follow those guidelines, then over the long-haul, you will lose money to someone who does follow them.
@lvg3g, We wouldn't need money in a perfect world. (; Regarding the initial statement from @Giorgioversace using marketing speech: Some comments dramatically reduce the user experience on this platform.
This is insane and it deserves an explanation.