It depends where you start the from, but I have started it in this instance from $734, which is the low on Coinbase on Jan 12th of 2017, less than 13 months ago. The major retracement levels seem to line up nicely with major levels going back or forward in time.
All of this downward pressure should have been more clear given the gap in the on Dec 20th-Dec 21st from 15381.85 to 14829.75. This gap was perpetuated intentionally by someone with an algorithm programmed to the millisecond in order to pull it off so perfectly. Just go back and check the 4 hour chart on coinbase for verification. The market did go back and fill this gap but never recovered past previous shoulder levels set in place the first 10 days of December.
It is my estimation that almost all cryptocurrencies are in major head and shoulder retracements. I do believe with this drop in prices, ethereum will surpass bitcoin in total market cap by the end of the year, potentially the next few months.
I would look for bitcoin to show some support around $5000-$6000 levels and potentially pop up 50% but fail somewhere in the $7500-$9000 range. The next move lower after this pop would be the last and I would see it ending anywhere between $750-$3000. The end will be determined by the sentiment of market participants, global economic climate, regulatory concerns and liquidity of market participants. From there it will probably trade sideways to up for a while but a lot of damage will be done and time will be needed to get retail. investors involved again.
If the global central banks start printing money again, due to the impending storms in global stock markets, there could be a swift move higher in anticipation of higher . Traders will take clues from 2008-2009 to weather this years climate.
New fed chairman Jerome Powell will be tested immediately.
Also, if a 5% drop in the stock market can make volatility explode 100+% in a day, look out below. The fed has already signaled the fed "put" is way lower then yesterday. Expect the market to test those waters.
I expect bitcoin to trade down to 6550 region in about two days. I would then expect to see a bounce up to around 7800 then back down to last weeks lows or further. There is a chance bitcoin breaks the 7800 region in the rally and tests 9500 Fibonacci level before resuming the bear market.
Ultimately I am thinking a low around 3000 will conclude the bear market. The line in the sand will have to be 2975.01, dating back to September 15th of last year. If that point is crossed, then you could see a full retracement down to 734 region. I don't feel this point will be crossed and I will be scale buying down to 3000 area.
I am of the opinion there is some high level shenanigans going on with stocks and vix. I will be watching those markets carefully to look for signs.
I would be looking for this 4th wave up to fizzle out and the 5th wave down to begin on Feb 22nd. This should be the final wave down of this bear trend. Where does it stop is the question? 8500, 7000, 6000, 4500, 3000? I will be looking on the chart for places where it hits a major support level and bounces off it hard to the upside. It will give market participants a second time to buy but the initial low should stand the second time down. In my opinion, then you know there is a major low in place. Other signals would be all major coins hitting bottom at the same time, stocks also making a low and turning around. Some fundamental data might be central banks whispering of intervention, major tech acceptance or announcement within industry, a major buying coming in and then being revealed.