We've just retraced to 4th Elliot wave in the 12345 pattern, with smaller retracements than I've expected. That is because bulls exhausted their resources trying to reverse the bearish trend, but were failing to build volume and RSI was overbought. For building more momentum, I think deeper retracements would have been needed. So I am expecting the 5th wave not to be as strong as one would expect, to be stopped a little above $8500 (maybe even lower, but good opportunity to short), and a deep ABC correction should follow that would eventually send us down to $6600. Phil's hypothesis (@PRO_Indicators) about the repetition of the 2014 crash pattern seems to be basically confirmed.
These are my opinions, expecting constructive criticism, we're all in the same boat surrounded by whales! :)
Wave 4 cannot retrace into wave 1 - it's one of the golden rules of Elliott. Furthermore, your ABC is not valid if it finishes before the start of wave 1 - a corrective wave can't be longer than the impulse wave (wave 2 cannot retrace before the start of wave 1)
Wave 1 started at $6504, we finished 5 waves up and finished wave A which retraced precisely to 0.236 fib level.
floring67
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@alexyeoh, yeah, you're right, I didn't notice where I've placed wave 4 retracement, we must then have done the A wave already. That wave 1 pump made hard the things to read. Ok also with corrective wave, but I think wave C would go to at least 0.618 fib level. But as a large picture, as it will be inside the downtrend channel, big odds are to get a downwards impulse wave, as D4 was showing. That would only change the wave numbering and notation. However I don't think the wave 5 would end at $3500, as he said, we have a little more bull power than that.
Wave 1 started at $6504, we finished 5 waves up and finished wave A which retraced precisely to 0.236 fib level.