Building on an idea I had while working on my previous chart (tradingview.com/v/NRS4U5CA/), I have found what I'll describe as a ‘Mirrored Fibonacci Sequence’ (marked by the blue & orange zones) in the time scale of Bitcoin’s price discovery. I call it ‘mirrored’ because the fibs oscillate backwards, then forwards on each consequent bubble.
The red & green zones are from observations made on a previous study (tradingview.com/v/NRS4U5CA/). They mark out a consistent pattern that can be observed across Bitcoin's entire price history. These red & green time frames are important as they synchronise closely with the mirrored time fibs (blue & orange). IT should be noted, the current green zone we are trading in ends on the 20th of August 2014, & if this theory holds up, should mark the very beginning of the next parabolic phase.
I’ve left my longterm trend lines in for those who might want to speculate on what price these fib time frames might offer longterm. Albeit they are not my primary focus on this chart.
Perhaps the most notable feature for me is how much larger the bubbles are when two 1.618 fib lines meet up (June 2011 & April 2013).
Credit to munkeefonix for his excellent time corrected historic Mt Gox data: tradingview.com/v/CBKHNSUb/. For those interested the long term support is strung between $0.07 on the 14th October 2010 & $13.50 on the 13th of January 2013.
Update 19th August 2014
The current timefib we are now in is just on 3 days off completion. I originally calculated the 20th of August as the day price will reach base camp, using the daily chart. But after fine tuning the scales on the 2hr chart back from the the November 2013 ATH I've recalculated the 22nd of August 2014 as D-Day. That said, going back over previous bubbles the margin of error is as much as a week! So any time between now & end of August is good time to pitch the tents at base camp. I think the answer to the question of 'when' this market makes it's way to the next parabolic phase will boil down to two things: Whether a highly capitalised minority still believe Bitcoin has the potential to put in a new all time high. And whether that minority lie in wait, fearful that other highly capitalised individuals will take the first mover advantage from them. In my opinion we still have the time & price range for another leg down. That might even allow the price to put in a highly pivotal H&S reversal. Popcorn at the ready, I'm going to enjoy the show :)
The current timefib we are now in is just on 3 days off completion. I originally calculated the 20th of August as the day price will reach base camp, using the daily chart. But after fine tuning the scales on the 2hr chart back from the the November 2013 ATH I've recalculated the 22nd of August 2014 as D-Day. That said, going back over previous bubbles the margin of error is as much as a week! So any time between now & end of August is good time to pitch the tents at base camp. I think the answer to the question of 'when' this market makes it's way to the next parabolic phase will boil down to two things: Whether a highly capitalised minority still believe Bitcoin has the potential to put in a new all time high. And whether that minority lie in wait, fearful that other highly capitalised individuals will take the first mover advantage from them. In my opinion we still have the time & price range for another leg down. That might even allow the price to put in a highly pivotal H&S reversal. Popcorn at the ready, I'm going to enjoy the show :)
Anima87
⋅
I know it's old, but whats your idea on your chart as of now that it seems we don't follow the trend?
UnknownUnicorn59736
⋅
Thanks Anima87. The main function of the chart was to try & identify a key ratio patterns, that might of suggested 'when' to expect market reversals, based on previous tops & bottoms. The historic trendlines are there merely as a guide, as disconcerting as it is to see the supporting one now broken. That said trendlines are only ever drawn on a chart to eventually be broken, as you can see on this chart:
As you can see the newest purple trendline, isn't technically speaking a confirmed trendline, having only a single point of contact with the price, but it certainly holds the potential to be a new uptrending support line.
Grinny
⋅
We just broke your lower longterm trend line...
Grinny
⋅
Wow, I get downrated for posting a fact...?
Coinsidering
⋅
Well, it's pretty difficult to paint a line that long on the $ exactly... We didn't cross it in my chart, though...
ChartArt
⋅
Interesting. Thanks for your idea, emanance. I created another version based on your chart - with the upper trend line adjusted to older historic prices. Please zoom out to see the start of the trend lines.
Zoomed out version - Screenshot:
ChartArt
⋅
Something went wrong with my first chart link. Here is my version of your chart: