I think the fundamentalists will win in the long run. The trading volume has been very low all 2018, and the trend is pointing down following a very systematic, almost fractal like pattern. You have to ask what Bitcoin really is and what it is really worth. Is it a currency or is it a block chain technology? I don't think it can succeed as both.
If it has to work as a currency it will need some kind of stability, otherwise it will not work. Maybe SEC's latest ETF proposal might help stabilize it, and give it an extra chance as such. However it will take time to implement. So that will not come as a help short term.
As a block chain technology, there are also many other options out there, that might also be better than Bitcoin. And it doesn't help that ICO's are popping up everywhere like cancer. It just adds extra confusion to an already complex market. Speaking of which. The crypto market is now just an other instrument, and subject to increased control and manipulation from professional traders. And they are not day dreaming of a new bull rally. they are scalping and scraping away, what ever they can until there is nothing left. Up or down makes not difference. Have you see Annihilation on Netflix, because that is what I'm talking about here. No hard feelings.
I bet there will be a new bull rally, probably not soon, not until Bitcoin has been brought all the way down to it's knees, pre 2017. With the infrastructure and the incredible brand value that Bitcoin has, it will most likely return to a certain extend, at least as an alternative currency which it was meant as. It might take a year or two and a couple of bull hikes, some maybe even higher than what has ever been seen before ( greed knows no limits ). But in the end, when everything has settled down, it's value will most likely be closer to one, round US dollar than $7.000. Maybe already by the end of 2018.
Remember the banks are aggressively going for their own alternative block chain technologies like R3 and Hyperledger. One thing is for sure, they will never give up control. It has to be taken from them :-) and i don't think Bitcoin has or ever will have the strength to do that. But there will be some rallies before the Bitcoin hikes are finally over.
PS. This is my first idea, so i used an external image editor. Will use the built in, in the future.
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Here is an article describing the fundamental issues with Bitcoin in much greater detail. I believe the overall projection still holds. I’m a bit curious what will happen when the price gets close to the mining costs. The HODLers will probably still try to sit it out. But eventually one will need some bread on the table. google.dk/amp/s/www.technologyreview.com/s/610783/bitcoin-would-be-a-calamity-not-an-economy/amp/
You lost me at "one, round US dollar" The can only be 21 million bit-coins ever. They are limited not infinite. 21 million dollars is not enough currency to run anything. Now, if 1 Satoshi, the smallest unit of bit-coin, were worth one round US dollar than each bitcoin would be worth 100 million dollars. Now we are talking! That would be over 2 quadrillion dollars. Enough to replace every money unit on the planet and then some.
PinquinGiraf
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@Kwa, You could fork it, change the protocol to support what ever limit i.e. a quadrillion, and then allow Bitcoin'ers to exchange their coins as when you stock split.
You could also change the protocol of Bitcoin if there where enough consensus, which is of course hard to believe.
But if the price dropped far enough it might be possible, as the current perspectives doesn't look to bright.
BitcoinBearSlayer
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@PinquinGiraf, when it forks it is not bitcoin. It is something else like Bitcoin Cash. You can fork something similar, but you can not make more bitcoin.
I'm not saying Bitcoin could not go to One dollar each, I'm just saying at one dollar each what's the point? There is none. It takes close to 4K, on average, in electricity just to produce 1 bitcoin. Some countries more, some less but about 4K on average. If they are not at least worth the cost of production then why bother?
PinquinGiraf
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@Kwa, "It takes close to 4K, on average, in electricity just to produce 1 bitcoin"
That is why you need to fork or change to the existing protocol.
You can't have a currency that increase it's value at astronomical increments. Thats called inflation.
Thats the same as expecting everything else in the world to change value around Bitcoin. It wont happen.
A currency has to be stable to work as a currency.
At the moment the Bitcoin blockchain is like an over expensive exchange that leaves people with useless coins.
Simply put, your local barber wont cut your hair if you pay half every month, because the value of your Bitcoins has doubled.