After many requests and very nice price structure on BTC and ETH I decided to make a new video update. It looks like cryptos are turning, but to make sure we go higher it would be nice to see NASDAQ100 turning up as well.
Check out video for more details.
If you see value in video please like this video or leave me a comment below.
thank you. Grega
Oh, and BTW this is not investment advice! Make your own research, because I can be wrong!!
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BTC remains in bullish path, forming also a potential bullish H&S, so I suspect we will see higher prices. Same with ETH.
Grega
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Hello traders, Bitcoin is still slow in a sideways price action, but seems like it's forming a triangle pattern, which is a continuation pattern. So, as you know we are expecting a minimum three waves up a-b-c or i-ii-iii towards 11k-12k. Of course it's a chance that wave (ii/b) becomes more complex and deeper down to 61,8% Fibo. retracement and 7000 level, but in any case we expect that BTC will hunt a wave iii/c up to 11k-12k and if it's wave (iii) maybe even higher.
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Traders, we want to show you why we labeled as wave (b/ii)! Even if it's not a triangle in wave b and it goes much higher above our minimum expections into wave iii instead of wave C, it still can be also labeled as (i,ii). So in any case, we expect a minimum three waves up!
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Something similar is actually right now happening on LTCBTC! Can be a triangle (a-b-c-d-e in wave B) or flat correction (a-b-c in wave 2), but anyhow BULLISH for minimum three waves up!
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BTC breaking out!! Keep an eye on projected levels! We will update it constantly..
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Do you remember what I say in Video about NASDAQ? when it bottoms at new lows and turns up, thats when BTCUSD will start pushing higher based on positive correlation which is clearly there....
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ETHUSD moving right into our first/minimum target area at 900-1000 as highlighted in video. BTCUsd also at some interesting level, 10K! updates soon
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Hello traders, let's finish this week with BTC update to prepare you for weekend! So, as you know we are tracking third wave c/iii and as you can see, it was expected for many reasons. Many traders expected deeper pullback to join the party or just expected new lows, but they missed it and now it's moving sharply higher. You can see next projected targets for minimum wave C towards 10500-11000 or higher for wave iii towards 12300 level.
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BTC at first target projection, but according to sharp wave structures and impulsive waves, we assume that BTC may continue it's uptrend towards next target projection target towards 12k and any short decline will be just a temporary pullback within uptrend!
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Hello traders, Sharp decline on Cryptos, but let's take a look where we are. As you can see we have only three waves up from lows, but for bullish confirmation we need five waves up. If this is wave 4, then support shoud be around 9500-10000, but if BTC from any reason breaks below 9100, then bulls would not be confirmed yet and BTC can be something more complex..
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Currently we see BTC in a temporary correction of wave (iv) within uptrend of incomplete five-wave cycle, which means that we expect and we remain bullish towards 13000 level for wave (v), just keep in mind that current wave (iv) correction could be much more complex; it may go straight up, can be a triangle or it may retrace even for 38,2% back to around 9700 level before continue higher!
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Hello traders, BTC is moving nicely higher within five-wave rally as expected. Just keep in mind that we are currently in 5th wave and there is still room for 12k-13k levels, but any earlier sharp decline with breaking channel support line would suggest that five-wave cycle is completed and three-wave correction may follow.
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BTCUSD drops 1k from our first 5th wave target (black arrow). now testing channel support; if broken we may get below 9k
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below 10k.. sorry!
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more weakness for btcusd can be coming.. 5 up and broken channel, so now 3 down. Correlated NASDAQ100 also weak!
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Hello traders! BTC moving nicely lower into a deeper correction (a)-(b)-(c) as we expected! As you can see we still see room for more weakness for wave (c) towards ideal 61,8% Fibo. retracement, so Bitcoin could find support around 8000 level from where we expect a bounce into a new bullish cycle! Another reason can be NASDAQ, which has potential five waves up, so drop may occur for at least three-wave pullback.
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Traders, regarding this current move up, still can be a part of a complex correction in wave B. Keep in mind that we want to see a deeper correction back to around 61,8% Fibonacci retracement, so doesn't matter how complex and sideways is going to be at this stage, we expect lower levels towards 8000 level!
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Hello traders! As you know we are tracking a three-wave a-b-c correction on Bitcoin down to 61,8% Fibo. lvl. towards 8k level and current move up can be still a part of second wave b into a flat correction, so seems like 11k can be a key level, from where we could see another drop for wave c towards projected 8k level.
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Traders, we want to share with you a correlation chart between NASDAQ and BITCOIN, since we know they are in positive correlation due to technology sector. It clearly shows that we may see some weakness in coming days; five waves up on NASDAQ mean that we could see at least three-wave recovery, while BITCOIN is trading in corrective wave B, which means that wave C down may occur soon. That said, it's just another evidence that we may see another drop on cryptocurrencies!
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Hello traders, BTC turning from 61,8% Fibo. retracement at the end of the month and can be on it's way below 9k.
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BTCUSD is still trading at resistance, around 11k where wave b flat can look for a top and ideally send price down into wave c of 2/B that can stop at 8000-8500 area.
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Many questions from you such as "Is BTCUSD going up from here, or will 8k be retested. Not sure yet, but will stick to my analysis. As said, 8k is the best technical level for a bounce, but in either case next impulsive reaction will sooner or later be above 11800 IMO, either from here or from lower, "better" 8k level. So, there is definitely an Alternate count that suggests a completed corrective set-back at recent Feb 25 swing low... will post new count as soon as I have more price data.
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Traders, NASDAQ is down, but didn't pull BTCUSD down yet. Because of slow and sideways price action we are still tracking wave "b" and as we said above, could be even more complex and we don't care how complex, we just want to see 61,8% Fibo. level between 8k-9k before any bullish look and according to other cryptocurrencies, which are showing clearer bearish structures, we still remain bearish.
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Hello traders! BTC is still slow and slightly higher. We took a look on some xxx/btc crosses and many of them are close to support, which means that bounce may occur soon. One example is ETHBTC and on this correlation chart you can clearly see a negative correlation and also you can see what may happen with BTCUSD, when ETHBTC find support.
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Hello traders! Sunday Update! We got the first evidence of a reversal, which is broken channel support after only three corrective waves up in wave B, so drop for wave C coming soon?
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Just in time, just below highs! Let's see, if that's what we expected.
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It was very slow price action in the last few days and that's normal for corrective waves, in this case called wave B, so third wave C is always what you need to be aware of, a motive wave, usually made by five waves, so let's see if BTC could test 8k-9k again and then bounce when everyone gets out.
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Say no more!
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So many questions about BTC. Answer is NO, I dont see BTC forming a bottom yet here in wave C.
Subwave structure in C, Fibonacci levels and time projection suggests that it can be too early. I however have no issues with adjusting my views, but only above 11700.
trade well, GH
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What a perfect text book! BTC right into our projected zone! Just keep in mind that Bulls will be confirmed only if we see an impulsive bounce within five waves up and break above 10100 level!
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Hello traders! What a perfect bounce on Cryptos! As you know we were tracking a three-wave correction, which seems to be completed after perfectly reached our support projections. It's very important to look at correlations between cryptocurrencies and we talked a lot about that in past updates. After nice bounce, it's time for Bulls. So, after completed correction, we always look for minimum three-wave recovery until we see it's bullish confirmed and as you can see, it's already trading higher, but for bullish confirmation we need something more! BTCUSD is currently trading in wave C/3 up, where wave 3 may extended for 261,8% Fibo. level towards 11k level, as long as it's trading above 835 our projected support level! Bullish confirmation is only above 11700 level!
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Hello traders! No big changes from yesterday, but we have prepared an alternate count, just in case, because we don't see any bullish impulsive reaction yet and current sideways price action can be still corrective in wave (iv), so there is also a chance that BTC could see 7750-8150 levels for wave (v) before turns higher. Waiting for more data until we become more confident.
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Hello traders! Cryptos finally on the move. Well, since we saw a very slow price action in the few days, based on alternate counts new lows were expected. But as you can see decline was out ouf triangle, which means that current cycle and correction can be completed, so we expect a bounce with a minimum three-wave recovery, but for bullish confirmation we need five waves up! As you know we are tracking a three-wave A-B-C correction down to 61,8% Fibo. retracement, which seems to be reached perfectly, so 61,8% Fibo. retracement, five waves down, 4th wave was a triangle and we have also 161,8% extension of wave B. So, if we put together all these evidences than BTC correction can be completed, but for bullish confirmation we need five waves up and break above 9400 level!
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common baby...
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f BTCUSD its going higher then this 8k level matters. Price similarity in two degrees of trend. 4hs vs 30min.
agreed. There is definitely a historical positive correlation between BTC and NDX
UnknownUnicorn995432
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Hi,
Thank you for sharing your charts and for the updates. They are extremely good.
I just wanted to ask if you could kindly take a look at the all time BTC/USD chart at Bitstamp. Several of us are not sure about BTC prices. Fundamentally everything going on around is very similar to what happened to teh cryptomarket in 2014 (regulations, bans, association with illegal activities). At that time it was mainly China, and now it seems like many countries are involved.
The issue with Tether is one of the biggest we have seen though. The conglomerate of Bitfinex, Binance, Bitttex, OKex and a few others using USDT and now even EURT are controlling more than 30% of BTC's price worldwide, which means that the whole market is manipulated. You can see the effects of stock markets on the price of BTC. Similar effects occur with BTC's price movement on the price of all altcoins as every exchange lists BTC pairs with alts and not USD. Hence, by manipulating BTC which acts as the common denominator, the entire market is manipulated.
These are just my own thoughts about the situation though. I could be wrong.
What I wanted to ask you is whether you think it Is possible for BTC to remain in consolidation phase between the range of 5k-10k over the next few months?
Thank you once again for sharing the charts and updates. We really appreciate it.
Best regards.
Basil13
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Good video @ew-forecast, nice to see people taking time to go into some TA; im sure it will be beneficial For Many; Including myself
thank you so much; very interesting analysis. I really appriciate the videoupdates. So much more value compared to one chart loaded with information. Would be nice with some targets as the text is not 100 % clear and hence a little difficult to read in the video.