First target around 8700 was reached easily, now it seems to be breaking out of the 8740 and will probably continue to 9000. My last trade on Bitcoin -0.04% was a loss, i was had a nice profit several times, but i underestimated the strenght of the Bitcoin -0.04% (greed) again. I thought it would drop to at least 7500, thats why i did not close my short position. In my last update of that trade, i showed to options would be possible, the bullish version had won. It was a sideways time correction from the 8300 top untill now, it shows how much strength and greed is in the market that only a few 100 points drop gets bought so fast around the ATH -0.71% . I still have my doubts though, i am not really convinced about the volume . I just have this feeling that some big sellers wil and up taking profit way before reaching 10.000. It's just guessing now to where this is heading, for now probably at least 8950
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The chart of my last update form my previous analyses
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Just amazing :), did i say 10.000 would be difficult? seems it will reach it within a few hours. Volume has also kicked in
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Target is around 9750, I am getting out now at 9690.It's just to risky for me
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I am glad i got out yesterday on time, even though there were several chances given. I wanted to short it at that last top, but i just did't have the balls to do it :)
For now i am waiting for a break out on the up or downside
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This will probably be headed towards 10500. But i will not wait for that price to close my position. If people get scared, it could turn around at 1350 (if it get's there). I will set my stop for a sell signal on the 1 and 5 min chart. For now i have my stop fixed at 9900. But i will probably put it higher as i type this and the bitcoin pushes even higher
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My guess is, that this euforia will show something like this, i do espect a sharp fall from somewhere between 10300/10500 to scare to ones out who got in at these high prices. And a big chance we will see a spike upwards from there again, to do same all over again
Đóng lệnh: đạt mục tiêu
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I am out at 10350 of this high speed train, this just aint normal. To risky for me. almost 600 points in the plus, moooore than enough for me. I am curious if it pushes through directly to 10500
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I think it will drop to 1100/1050 now. I am not shorting this, i am staying flat for not. Best if it consilidates for a day or so, and than wait for new signals
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This is what i excpet will happen, if it gets around 10320/10340 i will short it for a short ride down towards 10.000/10.050. But 9.900 is also possible
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I am short now at 10340, stop at 10420
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And i am out, lost 80 points. probably will reach the 10500 i mentioned before. but i am going to leave it as it is for now
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What a crazy world this is.
A previous update of mine: My guess is, that this euforia will show something like this, i do espect a sharp fall from somewhere between 10300/10500 to scare to ones out who got in at these high prices. And a big chance we will see a spike upwards from there again, to do same all over again.
Sometimes the way it moves is to easy, but predicting the prices is more difficult. I was right about the 10050, and the spike up again, and it's even pushing higher above 11.200 as i type this. Crazy moves like this are uasully the beginning of the end. I don't believe in these crypto's, not in the way most people do. I am not going against the positive trend to much, i mostly only react on what the charts are telling me. For now it's up without borders it seems. My guess for this easy move is, there is just no selling pressure. Smart money sees the greed and waiting for higher prices to start selling with insane profits
Goede analyse, botje! ;) Appreciate the honesty, and I share your short-term bearish outlook. I suspect the last, fast and unexpected push could have been the result of a combination of a short squeeze and fools rushing in on some high fever. Would you agree? All it takes now is a few wales pressing the sell button to take profit, and this parabolic move is over. I'm patiently waiting for the accumulation phase now
botje11
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@RvdH,
Dank je wel :) Honesty always wins in the end. Yeah well i missed the move to 1000/1050 completly and the move up from there again. Was actually quite obvious (with nerves of steel ofcourse) but i was sleeping. I expected 10500 maybe 100 more, not this ofcourse. For now i am a bit clueless. This is all about getting in the little guys, letting them taste easy and almost free money. It's no telling where this can go, 12k, 15k, 20k. Just to get enough amateur money in the market, so it can get sold off twice in an ABC correction. My guess is, they are getting it ready for the CME futures to get, to push it even higher to let is seem like it's something good. Than these markets will feel the pressure from the Big guys (smart) money taking control over these markets.
asyrafrcks
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love your analysis! I am afraid too because this is moving too fast. But glad you closed it, really looking forward for your next post.
botje11
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@asyrafrcks,
Thank you very much :) Seems like my timing at closing it was perfect again :)
Renzi
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are you using hourly charts? sorry for such question, i just wanna clarify.
botje11
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@Renzi,
You can always ask questions :), i will try to answer them always when i have time. It depends, for medium term i use from 1 hour and more charts, to try to determine the trend. But for short trades i use 1 min, 5 min and 15 min charts.