Here is my update on the current impending Bitcoin Megabull Cycle. Annotations are on chart!
The breakout day as I pointed a month ago is on December 7-8, the I have been using is on par with that thinking. If you have been following me on twitter, I have pointed that the last mini handle we currently are in is close to completion and the current Bitcoin market overlaps beautifully with the blue bars of the . Please set a stop loss at the 1D Midband currently at 5260cny or $745 USD in case this trade fails for any reason
From there we will be able to continue our journey way higher as we head to the "moon". Once we hit $1,137 USD (previous ATH ), Bitcoin will exponentially rally higher due to increased media coverage and more interest / hype that will bring new money in to the market. We are already seeing Bitcoin adoption in several worldwide countries: Venezuela, Africa, India due to failing fiat economies due to and other issues.
It is very important to know as a trader that based on the 235 Days Bitcoin cycle, Bitcoin will reach the final ATH / Top on February 16 2017 (so make sure you sell Bitcoin and close your longs on or few days prior)
Potential ATH Targets are:
The final ATH target on February 16 2017 depends on how steep (slope) the uptrend is**
** I will re-evaluate the chart and targets during the megabull and provide an update on a possible final target
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It is unclear yet if Bitcoin will:
(1) Need more consolidation at these levels before resuming the rally towards a new ATH
(2) A bearish outcome will be at hand with a retest of $630s initially and eventually lower.
That said, lets observe the action of the market in the incoming days before jumping to a final conclusion.
1. Chinese charts had formed a descending triangle on the low timeframes which broke to the upside 10 hours ago
2. All charts show that were in an ascending triangle:
3. Bitfinex and Stamp made new yearly highs. We are just pending China's move above the 5500cny resistance
4. Typically in a Bitcoin Bull market (especially the megabull), we tend to stay overbought on the 1D and 1W and 1M timeframes for long periods (several weeks). Hence why the 1D momentum indicator has shown constant buying (green bars) since October 2016 (see chart)
I will follow up then with an another update of the megabull fractal with narrowed targets.
I closed all longs from 4 weeks ago once the neckline broke as seen on my screenshot below, just like we did on previous bull runs from several months ago. You all know I do not take chances, when the neckline breaks always sell (unless it was a quick down).
That said, the fractal was spot on until the news came out. Lets let the market consolidate for several weeks and look for our next long term trade / big move.
It is obvious that these exchanges were all aware of this announcement by PBOC several days before the public did while the megabull or bull-run was ongoing and close to the ATH (as the fractal was spot on). Of course insiders trading on these exchanges are targeted by the release and aware of that news, hence they orchestrated the brutal sell off of Bitcoin from $1165 down to $860 USD (and on top of margin calls galore)
Today's news put an end at the megabull cycle and instead Bitcoin will start moving in a different way with a sign of little maturity during bullruns. I mean that megabull 2012, 2013 could become a thing of the past. That said, Bitcoin is still in a set of several ascending triangles (as long as they hold) and seeing newer ATH is still possible before end of 2017 of course after a long consolidation.
On that note, I believe all exchanges must be regulated (exchanges and not Bitcoin itself), and PBOC calling these exchanges to regulate themselves is simply not going to happen. You need a body to oversee and audit them unfortunately.
Finally, I will let the market consolidate and publish a chart with a bullish long term view as the short term might be turning bearish to potentially long consolidations. Any visit under $750 might start a new bear cycle unfortunately and under $680-660 a confirmed bear cycle begins.
PBOC Translatation of the Announcement:
The recent Bitcoin Price is highly volatile. To prevent risks and uphold financial stability, PBOC Shanghai and Financial Office of Shanghai have jointly met the major heads of BTCC to know the current status of Bitcoin trading. We have reminded BTCC the possible risks and require it operate strictly in accordance of laws and regulations of China. We have urged BTCC to conduct self-examination based on related laws and correct, if any, possible irregularities.
In accordance of Joint Notice if Bitcoin risk prevention by people’s bank of China, Ministry of Industry and information, China Securities Regulatory Commission China Banking Regulatory Commission, China Insurance Regulatory Commission, Bitcoin is a specific virtual goods. It is not law-based and compulsory like currency thus does not have the legal status as a currency. It shall not, should not be circulated as a currency in the market. Individuals and agencies should properly treat virtual goods and virtual currency. They should invest with rationale, bear the possible risks by their own, uphold their own assets and have a correct understanding and concept of currency.
if you want daily updates follow me on twitter! I can paste an updated chart if you wish here. Just let me know. cheers
Right now we are still in the twilight zone with stupid hit and run crashes that easily could negate the whole thing.