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BTC is weak... are we going down from here?

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Đô la
As much as I would hate to say this, I think we may be going down from here. There is a bunch of signals flashing red indicating it's time to go down, and very little of anything saying we hit the bottom and its time to go up. So let's take a look at why I think we may see a flush out to the bottom before we start a new bull cycle.

1.) On this logarithmic chart, we can see that there has been a very strong upwards trend line that has remained as major support for a long time (in crypto-time). This support level broke on Jan 30th quite violently and closed near its lows.

2.) On the same day we saw a death cross occur indicating a potential shift to a more bearish sentiment. Whether this downward movement holds up only time will tell.

3.) Volume looks to be weakening as well

4.) When we look at the RSI , we can see that usually at the bottom of a downtrend, the RSI will approach if not touch oversold territory. Because we broke the major trend line to the bottom AND the RSI looks like it still has room to drop before touching the oversold area, I think it is very possible that we could see BTC go to the $7,500 region.... if not even flush out near the $5,500 range if we're lucky!!! You could see a once in a lifetime buying opportunity to pick up some dirt cheap coins which we probably won't see that low ever again.

5.) If we look at some external psychology, we just had a crap ton of newbies enter the crypto space over the past month. Most of which probably bought near the top. I foresee that once BTC breaks $9,000.... we could see some major capitulation by the weak hands that will justify the fall to $5,500-$7,500.

Let me be clear, I think this is very healthy for the market and I think we are still in the process of flushing out weak hands. Once this period is over, we would be starting a new bull cycle which will probably be more stronger to the upside than what we've seen before. It's interesting times, so keep sharp!
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