Plenty of bulls have been hoping for a return to the channel top, and I've been skeptical given all the bearishness lately. Bulls have had no juice on bounces, while bears have succeeded in dumping hard and fast every time. But there's something happening in a few hours which might just provide the psychological rocket fuel for the bulls: Weiss Ratings is about to release the first grades by a ratings agency for cryptocurrency. https://www.weissratings.com/ Now I have exactly no clue how significant this is really, I'm not savvy about ratings agencies whatsoever. No clue how the wider market will view this. But what I do know is that crypto bulls are OBSESSED with news that "legitimizes" crypto in the financial industry. Real-world use cases, ETFs, , positive statements by governments, etc. Just look at the recent mania with XRP -- the idea (however oversimplified) that "banks are using ripple!!" was enough to fuel a huge pump. Bulls are desperate for good news. This might just be enough ;)
So while my other recent charts have been already been sketching a path to a new bulltrap just under 14K , I've honestly been skeptical of my own forecast. But I decided to take a clean look at the fibs and see what was plausible from a TA perspective (before I even heard about the Weiss stuff in the chat).
Quite simply, a 15K max target would put us right at the 0.705 OTE retrace of the entire selloff since the 17.2K bulltrap. And it's also nearly identical to where the 1.618 fib extension sits (of the rebound from 9-13K). So you've got two major movements with overlapping retrace (and extension) fibs. The rebound from 9K even hit its own 0.705 OTE buy zone perfectly and is starting the rally from there. Yes, this formation would become a big all over again, so I'd expect a similar fall from the new 15K bulltrap back down to the intersection of the median, 50% fib, and the new brown rising triangle bottom.
Of course the similarities to Mt. Gox are obvious, so the market freaked out and dumped vertically -- but stopped right at the triangle bottom, so one could say "we were going there already". Sure, but if you want to ensure a swift panic crossing of the triangle, you couldn't pick a better motivator than carefully-timed asian heist FUD :P
Anyways, folks got another chance to catch 10,300 coins, and we're rising up to the top again for another attempt at the trend line. Notice the similar contention on Jan 1-2 where there were multiple attempts to breach, and even a sizable pullback, before finally crossing and taking off. We could be doing the same in this red circle now. As long as this triangle is still in play, the bull forecast is viable (though if we take too long 15K won't be within reach on the channel top)
We've breached the long downtrend shoulder line since 17K, and now are just paused on the pitchfork median. Expect much more buying volume soon...
This is controlled by the exchange, and not by the traders. Most people think the traders at that exchange are too stupid to realize prices else where are different. This is not the case. The exchange can create an artificially higher price by committing to micro trades on its own exchange that lead prices higher or lower in a given direction. Depending on how much money they are willing to throw at said attempt, usually 1x or 2x per day they must return to parity, and re balance their own book of micro trades, and carried positions. As I said, GDAX attempted to have the highest price as a way to deter that traders would not move assets away from their exchange. So this strategy worked for a while, until BTC imploded. Now they have stopped trying to lead the market, as they have realized it is a costly strategy when prices ultimately go against you and you have an enormous loosing position on your books from bad accumulation. In any case. To answer your question, you should be looking at your exchanges data and always be comparing it to all the major market leaders. In this base it is Bitfinex , Poloniex, Bittrex, Binance etc. And more particularly to the coin your trading. The exchange that handles the most REAL trades, not fake micro trades , is the exchange you want to use as the real price or the true benchmark. But ultimately your exchange price is what is going to matter for you.