floring67

One bullish and one (not so) bearish scenario

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Đô la
So the bull flag broke out but was stopped at the $7900 resistance, where a couple of liquidated shorts sent us above in an uptrend to $8190 resistance.
First Elliot wave retracement should happen here, if whales do not play again. With all those pumps, it's really hard to make any reliable TA, and the risks are high, but as the market now moves free for a while, we have 2 possible scenarios, both with equal probability.

The bullish one (in cyan) would be a retracement to $7500, followed by impulse wave 3 that pushes us above $8500, and even to $12000 in wave 5. This should happen very fast, so I suggest buy once wave 2 that is about to start reaches the retracement bottom towards wave3; however looking at the BTCUSDSHORTS chart, I am not sure there are so many shorts left for whales to liquidate in order to validate this scenario.

The other one (in red) would be building another (larger) triangle, either symmetrical or descending, with an ABCDE type wave; in this case the first wave (about to retrace down) would be A instead of (1), and the deepest dip should be the first retracement (wave B to C); whether it would retrace at $6600, $6500 or $6300, that is hard to predict.

Note that the second scenario might be driving us to a new (and also old) downtrend channel (in magenta) where we might range again for a while after the triangle ends.

In any case, wave 3 or C are to be caught at least for a single trade.

A third (but I think less probable now) scenario would be the crash one, that would lead us somewhere between $4800 and $6000 to retrace; wouldn't be bad to catch for a long, tho.

The first retracement is imminent, bear cross about to happen on 30min chart, bearish divergence on all charts and bear flag on BTCUSDLONGS chart about to breakdown.

P.S.: my "predicted" waves timings are almost random; don't expect to be followed as they look! :)
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