ronfkingswanson
Giá xuống

Rebound retrace, simple bear flag takes us to 0.705 OTE buy zone

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Đô la
Textbook bear flag correction on the way down to 10,300 - after that expecting rally to wrestle with the old yellow bear trendline , then finally onwards to 13,600 high target

Right now we're just bouncing around inside the white ranging box (between the 50% fibs of both moves).

Note how the big selloff rebounded to the 0.705 OTE             retrace, so I'm expecting the same for this correction of the rebound itself, before rallying.

And yes, will end up painting a big bearish Gartley , so expecting a fall after high target
Giao dịch bắt đầu: flag resolved as expected with a solid dump ;) looking for it to settle on the 0.705
Đóng lệnh: đạt mục tiêu: Dumpers got a little spooked, but still ended up touching the 0.764 retrace fib nicely. Loooots of calls for heading straight south for 8-9K, but there's big walls at 10K, and we should start consolidating and getting ready for the rebound soon
Bình luận: another view which shows the long brown trendline where we just touched bottom at 10K
Giao dịch bắt đầu: bounce in progress. expect pause/pullback when we approach the downtrend shoulder line, which will also setup the inverse H&S
Giao dịch bắt đầu: wonderful micro fractal of the larger move -- we just rebounded quickly from the 10K local bottom, and the reached back down to kiss the 0.705 OTE of this 15min rebound. That just happens to be the same 10,300 price level as the OTE I posted in the original hourly chart that we were aiming for after the rebound of Jan 17th.
Giao dịch bắt đầu: in this kind of reversal territory, with people expecting 8K right away, you're not going to get tidy touches. Expect whiplash and excess. But retrace is done, time for bounce
Giao dịch bắt đầu: Despite all the drama down here, and incessant calls for drop straight to 8K -- all this congestion has just formed a solid support floor, with 10K holding tight for a double bottom. Note the incoming and outgoing trendlines, expect price to dance up and down them on the way out just like it did on the way in.
Bình luận: Another view that shows how even the panic wick (thanks, weak hands!) that pushed briefly to 9900 was just a second touch of the channel bottom. Expect another pullback and consolidation when we hit the 12K channel top
Bình luận: Perspective... zoom out... Note the red trendline coming all the way from the ATH. We've already fallen out of this channel recently with the forceful selloff to 9K and then jumped right back up in it --- thus channel harmonics demand that the next breach be on the upside ;)
Giao dịch bắt đầu: rebound flagging, testing the topside of the local shoulder line, but we haven't wrestled with the channel top at 12K yet
Giao dịch bắt đầu: still crawling out of the gutter, currently wrestling with the 11,100 S/R level (goes way back to the first selloff from the ATH)
Bình luận: I've got a new optimistic high target, based on the 1.618 fib extension (and the obvious channel top, which I didn't think the bulls had enough juice to reach). The Weiss Ratings are about to drop in 2 hours, and could provide rocket fuel...
Bình luận: Still higher highs, higher lows, crawling up slowly from the wide-bottomed reversal ;)
Bình luận: still no breakout energy, and we're in danger of dropping one more time to recharge. If so, expect another quick test of the 10,500 zone. Could be just the thing we need to finally bust out the top
Giao dịch bắt đầu: another triangle bottom touch would look like this on the original chart
Giao dịch bắt đầu: First kiss of downtrend shoulder line -- pullback from that kiss shouldn't be a surprise. Remains to be seen whether we fall from here back to the triangle bottom or we hold this level and pop the top. We've been slowly crawling up quite the ascending wedge, wouldn't take much to drop out
Thanks for insight !!!
Phản hồi
Inside bar on the 4HR chart, overbought and heading back down. I wonder if it will go below 10,000?
Phản hồi
Do you think it will pullback ?
Phản hồi
What is OTE that you are referring to?
Phản hồi
ronfkingswanson sundayfunday2004
@sundayfunday2004, optimal trade entry zone. good place to set orders on retraces
Phản hồi
Going from xrp to btc. Here is what I have been doing for the last 4 days. Lol.

Phản hồi
There is a possibility that Weiss index can, and may flip the whole market as well.

I am going to wait in fiat now.

The risk/reward ratio is extremely poor based on this.

http://www.arabianbusiness.com/banking-finance/388249-bitcoin-traders-await-first-weiss-ratings

Their own website has announced that their ratings are likely to lead to controversies (which is understandable). I suggest caution at this time. Now is not the time to take unnecessary risks. Just wait and observe.
+1 Phản hồi
Would you suggest that the indicators to focus on learning to come up with your results are Price Action, Elliot Wave and Wyckoff?

Great charts, thank you.
Phản hồi
@Atlantean, price, S/R, fibs, and RSI are pretty much all I look at. EW is black magic massively subjective voodoo. I like a simple 5-wave impulse and ABC correction, sure -- but the rabbit hole goes tooooo deep with Elliot.
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