After a couple of hours of charting, watching other TA's, reading about upcoming fork, possible manipulations around date of fork, observing important zones for BTC and bigger alts, I've come to following possible scenario for BTC.
The bigger picture for me is that we will see a bigger correction in BTC. We might see some manipulation towards the fork but in general I believe that the bullrun is over or almost completed. Reason to think that is because we've seen a 5 legs upcycle which already reached minimum target at 6200 and is currently extending towards fib 1.618 around $8200,- This cycle is mature and can start correcting from anywhere now but a retest of last ATH and even a run up to test that fib level is still possible.
For now, I'm seeing an ABC correction forming from last ATH towards the blue trendline. This would perfectly fit in the 5 legs I draw on the left chart forming the B leg. For now, I think this smaller 5 legs cycle will not extend above last ATH. If it does, we will have to evaluate that move and possible further moves down. But this ABC towards 6800 seems most logical to me. At that area it will we deciced if price corrects more towards 5000. I believe this will happen. I think we see some selling pressure coming days, followed by some bullish moves around fork and after fork (IF fork happens) the correction of the bigger 5 legs up towards $ 5000,- Stophunting will dip the price just below 5k
Tradingadvise: already for days, I advise members of my groups to avoid trading at these areas. Try to lock in profits as high as possible and wait for a decent correction to buy back lower and enjoy the next BTC bullrun.
Disclaimer: this is just a possible scenario which I see as most logical, taking into account my TA system and some fundamentals. I'm not predicting prices, I'm expecting. I'm not trading the move down, I'll look for a nice level to buy back. That might be 6500-5800-4800 or whatever..... Depends on the situation and possible events, manipulation in coming 8-10 days.
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Reached first target area, lets see how this unfolds
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We're in the possible bouncing area. 2 scenarios for now: bounce towards yellow line or a corrective move alongside trendline before more down
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BTC made a nice dip and almost hit my target box, followed by a bounce..... Coming hours will tell us if this was the dip or we might see some more downside. We might see a retest of blue trendline, from there it will be decision time if we make another move down like this chart:
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still looking for a retest of blue trendline. target determined with Fibo extensions
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Spot on? lets see!
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BTC tried to push more up but still in my potential reversal area and in a rising wedge pattern (trend reversal pattern)
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Several fib calculations point out to last restistance at 7365 (or close to that)
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Technically speaking, my set up is invalid as BTC just did its thing and blew through all my Fib resistance levels. But I cant deny this rising wedge. My feeling still says a drop, lets see
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Watching this pattern in this 5 legs up: first leg retraced to 50%, followed by a new ATH. 3rd leg retraced to 38% fibo, again followed by a new ATH. After new AT both retraced 40% to the trendline.5th leg retraced by 50% and BTC just made a new ATH. A 40% drop = bottom of channel
I'm thinking similar. Fractals, bounce of top down we come, a lot of people will be watching the upper channel (self fulfilling prophesy). The rapid rise of the last few days is also worrying. And we certainly haven't smashed through the previous ATH.
FUTUREBOYCOLIN
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Nice call Ed. I'm with you. Don't let the disillusioned bulls with their sense of self all tied up in the price of BTC get you down!
Now GET DOWN BTC! :)
Piston_Honda
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@FUTUREBOYCOLIN, this hasn't aged well...hopefully people didn't sell based on this...I would hold a little while longer to almost 7.5 then sell. stop at 7000
Crypto_Ed
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@Piston_Honda, if people sold based on this, they didnt follow my advise
Piston_Honda
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@Crypto_Ed, you're right sorry I was talking more about Futureboys comment about disillusioned bulls. You clearly state that people should take a backseat and wait for a clear opportunity to buy which is sound advice.
Crypto_Ed
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@Piston_Honda, yeah due to the BCC games I expected wild moves before further up. So thats main reason to stay out and let it happen.
unfamiliars
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Thank you for uploading this. Do you think the BTC pullback will have an effect pre/post fork on alts such as LTC at the time BTC is pulling back?
VanBenno
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@unfamiliars, I personally do. Most of the money that pumped into BTC in the first place came from traders looking to get more of their "alts" for a lower price. Now that this is over, we're re-entering the positions we left while the alts were falling.
Aside from that, Bitcoin is long overdue for a correction.
unfamiliars
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@VanBenno, I have only just read this but thank you for sharing your thoughts.. You ended up being quite accurate
edspiner
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"Technically speaking" cryptos just don't follow TA as any other markets ... the whole crypto adoption/hype lately, the SegWit/BCH wars and stuff makes the TA usless.
That's said - no offences here, in fact i was also bearish and thought of ABC correction to smth like 5k but once it passed 7k it's clear to me that the correction has ended. In fact, BTC made a big correction because it went from ~7900 to ~5400 which is ~31% drop.
Anyway, I do like all your analyse so keep up the good work.