BUT, is still to high, so that means it's probably not don yet, has to drop before we we make the low. As you can see, i drew the blue line, like that. indicating we could drop to the support line, slide on it for a while, let drop and THAN prepare for a lift off. It's a pure guess of course, but it's a very likely scenario.
I was short since the 11.600 which i closed at the 8500. Than i said we would go towards the 10K, where i went short again around the 9800 which i closed on average at 8200. Made a few small trades, long and short, to finally build up a short position again at 8500 and 8600 which i closed today around 7900 average. All these trades were made based on the bigger picture that we will make a big drop the next weeks. So far i have predicted most waves pretty good. But the market lets us adjust strategies within the bigger picture.
Now it just starting look more and more that we will see a big relief rally up. Something i did not think we would see yet, but the market is really weak at the moment, that usually triggers a big short squeeze!
To be clear, this long trade is purely within the bigger down trend. A move like this is not a reversal pattern, it's just to shake out short positions and attract bulls back in with their money.
Predicting where the low will be is very difficult, ideally we see a pattern on the 1 min chart. But if not, it's just guessing. The max should be around 7200, but the support line is around 7400. I will go probably go long if we get around the 7400. Overall it will be a small position! Because it's a counter trend trade. At best i will make it bigger after we break out start the rally.There is a chance the low is already set here, so i have taken 25% already at the 7550 just know, while i am writing this.
I know my followers will be surprised i am posting this analysis :) but hey, don't fight the market, try ride the waves with it :)
That's the thing, the smaller the time frame the more emotional the trades become. That's why i have said a few times before, it's always good to zoom out sometimes and look at the bigger pictures. A break of 7600 could be a first (very small) bullish sign. IF we break it, i will probably add some more instead of waiting for 7200, because chances decrease if we break the 7600
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