I've been saying this for some time, but bitcoin has certainly defied gravity. Its corrections are brief and shallow, and many have suggested that bitcoin can go to several million per coin in a few year's time.
Nevertheless, I expect the failure of another fork in less than 20 hours to trigger another round of selloff. This will likely lead to the weekly EMA to cross under the monthly EMA & confirm the Head & Shoulders pattern. Of course, it remains possible that the market makers will pump bitcoin so hard in the next 20 hours that it stays above 13k. Confirmation would require somewhere under 12k.
Not feeling like writing too much. I think the chart is self-explanatory. While experts here have identified numerous supports, I can't really see any long- to mid-term support above 10k.
As always with bubble pops, now the news is still generally positive. Once it pops, we'll hear bad news coming in.
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BTW, this is already on a log scale => so a straight trend line already means exponential growth. In the last few months bitcoin has been exp^2
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Just noticed that 50m new Tether has been printed. There'll be some pumping tonight, maybe it'll save bitcoin:
It appears that even tether thinks bitcoin is overpriced. It'll fall at least to 8k, it seems.
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Looking at wealth distribution, the wealthy have sold some, not much, some. I believe the price will recover to above 14k before more drops (and more recoveries). One steep drop can't allow the rich to sell all:
I remember yesterday the wealth distribution of Top10/100 was ~ 5.08%/17.8x%. Now we see 4.95% Considering some of the biggest are exchanges, probably some big holders have been selling.
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OMG, this is brutal. There was a 1000 btc buy wall that only stood a couple of minutes.
I've been waiting for a bounce all day -> no bounce, just continual crash. I think there's a 50 50 chance that around 2 a.m. UTC there'll be a huge pump back up. But I'd rather take my profit (which has taken a huge haircut) before going to bed.
Next year when it hits bottom...
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Finally some recovery. Tonight will be critical as per my previous comment. There's a chance we'll see 14k.
I saw a 2000 btc buy wall at 12k. That's some commitment.
The coming days will be significant in confirming the H&S definitively. There're many ideas posted on this site that suggest "double bottom" or "triple bottom". The problem with that view is that while H&S hasn't been confirmed neither has these "bottoms" --- moreover, H&S is a broader mid-term pattern while these "bottoms" are visible only on hourly charts. One idea I just saw suggested that we're making "higher lows" -> the problem is that we're still dropping in the very-short-term channel and the low hasn't been reached.
In sum, of course it's possible for BTC to stop dropping, but that idea has less evidence than the contrary.
Btw, BTC's hashrate is around 1/3 TRILLION times that of BTG while performing exactly the same function. It is my personal opinion that this signifies how inefficient BTC's tech is (and with this much hash power it's the slowest?). If we're to believe that long-term investment should reflect the fundamentals => BTC has the absolute worst fundamental. At some point, the market will confine it to history books (already we see BTC dominance dropping from 65% earlier in December to now 36%).
anyone new to cryptos with 20k isn't buying a fraction of BTC, they're buing dollar and cent coins. Also, the institutions already know it's up 2000% this year, the market is already moving elsewhere. BTC (BloaTwareCoin) is AOL and will die a slow death just like that shit company (sold and will slowly dissolve) because they couldn't improvise with the market. BTC doesn't provide a service, no smart contracts, slow transactions, double spends and created by NSA, yes they created SHA256 and BTC is a variation, but still born from NSA code.
DrJLT
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@bmgbmg, Exactly. It's hard to imagine people with 5k cash buying a small fraction of a coin. Ripple et al however have benefited from the influx of small investors.
I think your analogy to AOL is spot on, too. BTC is the worst tech for the highest price.
Its "dominance" has declined this year significantly & now sits @ 43%. 2018 will be the year of alts.
bmgbmg
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@DrJLT, agreed, it's only run up because of two things, miners and Tethers USDT on Bitfinex which have front run the ride to 20k. They've run out of suckers and that's what the market is showing us. There's so many alts that have gone 100X up (10,000%) while btc goes a little over 10X at current price.
getbits
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@bmgbmg, Lol...Without BTC you would have no crypto space. It's the original innovation. I really don't get haters of BTC unless you are highly invested in something else, and in that case, your hate makes total sense.
nfs5
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@getbits, You don't have be invested in other stuff to think that the current BTC valuations are dumb!
@bmgbmg, BTC: 1> low total supply. 2> Most exposed crypto. 3> CME futures trading. 4> Solely dictates market flucuations. 5> Has long term hodlers. 6> Lightning network in the works (game changer).
If you don't have longterm/birds-eye vision in this market you will be tossed around like a plastic bag in the wind.
HamadaMark
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i stand up, respect for your business and your vision, well done