Irasor

Daddy Bitcoin is nervous! My thoughts, correlation and stuff.

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Đô la
Hey guys,

everyone is concerned about Bitcoin being a bubble which is about to burst the entire Cryptomarket.

What we see is a neutral market on its way to decide which path we choose to go and how we deal with that "bubble".


There is one important fact we need to mention before we talk about a "Crash" if Bitcoin drops under the green Nackline of the first S/H/S-Pattern we`ve created after this crazy rally caused by the drop down to 5.500,- USD.
This consolidation seems to be crazy due the fact that we`ve never seen such a strong volatility in any market out there.

In Fiat, a drop from 20.000,- down to 12800,- (7.200) seems like an enormous fall from down the Mount Everest. But if you take a look at the growth in % this retracement is and will be still a joke if we get through that strong support which has been tested by the market for almost 18 times.

At 61,8% buyers safed Bitcoin and caused Fakeouts through this important zone. So what we basically see is still the greed by market players who missed the milktrain and still see`s potential in Bitcoin .

We still have a lot of problems with Bitcoin due transaction-time, fees, and efficients. A long time could pass by until we get working solutions like "Lightning network" that could fix those issues.

1. What is the market going to do? Hold, wait and hope?
2. Try to find alternatives? (Traditional market is freaking out)
3. Drop until 8000,- USD and consolidate?

There is one !BIG PROBLEM! I see related to this stupid correlation we have in the cryptomarket refusing to give us nice alternatives to Bitcoin .

1. Bitcoin climbs -> Alt falls
2. Bitcoin drops -> Alt falls
3. Bitcoin consolidates -> Alt climbs

Statement:
If Daddy Bitcoin is calm and relaxed he allows his kids to play.

How can we explain that correlation? Let me share my thoughts.

Statement 1: Bitcoin climbs

Since Bitcoin is the "oldtimer" of the cryptoworld, daddys grwoth was almost ridiculous. Bitcoins hype caused by the media and those "Bitcoin millionars" promoting strategies and promises on the internet baites verdant privat investor. I`ve been talking to ppl in my neighbourhood who`ve never heared about "ALTCOINS" but got Bitcoins instead.

Bitcoin is THE most important base currency to buy Altcoins. So, if the market is invested in Altcoins it means they were seeling BTC for ALT. If Bitcoin starts to climb, people see the potential of big stupid "forecasted" and pushed Goals like "60.000,-" - "100.000,-" until the end of the year.

Result = Sell ALT, BUY BTC .


Statement 2: Bitcoin drops

We were talking about Bitcoin being the daddy of the cryptoworld and BTC as the important base or primary currency of the cryptomarket.

Logically the Altcoin-market should grow when Bitcoin falls, due the fact that they SELL BTC and buy ALTs, right?
What I see is that the market defines "Daddy Bitcoin" as the entire Cryptomarket. Means, if Bitcoin drops -> The entire market is dead, because his kids are not big enough yet to stand on their own feet.

Bitcoin Drops -> Doubt in Cryptomarket -> Exchangen BTC and ALTs into Fiat.


Statement 3.

If daddy Bitcoin is relaxed going outside sitting on a bench reading his Newspaper he lets his Kids "abusing" the playground.

Market players see that Bitcoin is stable but not lucrative in a phase of a sideway trend.
So they use this chance to increase the amount of BTC in their wallets and trade ALTcoins instead as long as the rally takes a break. They see the potential in ALTs and wanna raise more money.

Sell BTC -> Buy ALTS
BTC Drops -> New Buyers in BTC

Isn`t that risky AF? Am I wrong? Please explain this correlation if it`s wrong.

I guess there is wway mroe facts we need to include into this analyse like miners, news etc.
But wht I see is a lot of panic, greed and inexperienced traders out there.

Which path to we choose for daddy?

Back to stockmarket?
Peace and good trades






Bình luận: Sorry guys I was in hurry ;-D I abused my keyboard haha..
Bình luận: Btw id you would like to see live-trading and learn: I`m streaming every day on twitch:

http://www.twitch.tv/fusicutan . :-)
Excellent thinking. I agree with you. The question is when and under what conditions the market can change !?
Phản hồi
Irasor kudrbeer
@kudrbeer, I guess we need more explanatory work. The problem I see is that the market don`t get the potential of other coins. It`s like Bitcoin is the Leader of a country and as soon as he goes down his constituency will die with him.. and that is just irrational and stupid. Bitcoin is the first product which has no optimized long-term-potential. And other coins are way better and optimized regarding to those scaling-problems.

My problem with cryptos is: No matter what I do, I`ll have no opportunity to diversify rationally. If I hold BTC plus ALTs, I`ll have the double risk. Aswell if I hold BTC and go "All-In". There is no real alternatives besides BTC when it goes down except Fiat. The market is not even willing to bring resilience and create a healthy circulation and interaction into the game.. like with Stocks - > Currencypair -> Commidities.

WHAT we need is people to understand that there are more coins than BTC which are not worste.. no even better.
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