I remember seeing this sort of thing a few times in the past, after downtrends like this. It *appears* as though the downtrend has remained intact (though in this case the downtrend *was* broken, the pink line is a revised downtrend), but after a while it becomes obvious that there has actually been a general slow recovery for a while. I might be crazy but I do remember a similar thing happening in past reversals. Only in hindsight did it turn out that the real reversal or low-point had already occurred weeks previously.
A similar thing happened during the last downtrend after BTC's $4900 ATH (obviously not a perfect comparison but I do remember having the same thought around that time, and I ended up being correct). During a certain time, it seemed as though the downtrend was intact, but in hindsight, we were already well on our way back up..
Bitcoin is up nearly 30% since the early February low point of around $6000 for BTC. I'm not saying this proves anything or is any kind of sure sign or whatever. But in perspective, it's entirely possible that the real low point/reversal happened 2 and a half months ago.
Your observation is correct. The bottom was hit Feb 6. Here’s some others observations that should be reflected on also. People should never judge a market bull or bear based on 1-4 hour TF. Minimum 1 day and higher to see the overall trend. Since Jan, BTC has on had 2 months down. Since 2015 he’s only had 10 months down. So in 36 months there have only been 10 months down and 20% of those were 1st quarter this year. Just simple math says you have 73% chance loosing going short. Given that we are within a support zone near the low, I would say those chances are 80-90% of getting rekt on short. This was never a “Bear Market” it was a steep retrace from massive 4q gains.
jlhequities
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This is what’s called Bear Trap. I’ve been saying it since Feb 7
mhfcrypto
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We need to drop down to circa $7700 first to at-least confirm Trend Reversal
@JoshuaVanier, Bull Volume's been declining. 4HR MACD just gone Bearish. I think we need a re-test of $7700, it'll be healthier for the medium-term growth :-)
welliguessso
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@mhfcrypto, Can you explain how you get that? If it drops to 7700 and finds support, does that confirm a trend reversal because it shows good solid base/establishes support?