First of all, props to redking75. His analysis on Bitcoin MACD inspired me a lot.
Now as you can see, since we started coming down on the 17th of December, this beautifull funneling pattern has developed on the MACD . Bear market started ---> MACD pattern started MACD pattern respected for 115 days ---> Price downtrend has indeed lasted 115 days Today, 12th of April, we brokeout on the MACD funnel pattern. This is a high fidelity indicator of a overall trend reversal ---> Bull market!
Also, the candles from the 4h chart clearly show bear's increasing exhaustion since the 5th of March. RSI level and formation closely resembles the circumstances of September 2015 (beginning of the largest bull market on Bitcoin's history).
Obviously we are to expect a lot of FUD in the next days. Why? Because many guys shorting Bitcoin who were influenced by whales like Poop and DarkEnergy have just lost huge amounts of money. THEY WANT BITCOIN BACK DOWN. Don't let them. I have nothing against those who shorted, but since we are clearly now forming a bull flag , my advice is to COVER THE SHORTS NOW, and avoid further losses.
To end with a more speculative note, I expect a breakout from the main Bitcoin's downtrend channel until the 25th of April.
People, forget those who present you with they'r daily vomit of worthless ideas based in TA Principles that DON'T WORK with Bitcoin (like Elliot Waves). And for your own sake, cover the shorts now, the risk of greater loss is not worth it.
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Still plenty of room for further rise in price. When you zoom in it might appear that the MACD has to make a bear cross soon, but bear in mind that our paradigm is now broken, so the prior upper limits of the MACD no longer apply. In the 7th of December the MACD hit a level of 1240 points. Now we are only at 315, so there's a lot of room for us to comfortably pierce the downtrend resistance even before a significant correction. The pump of yesterday has been caused by traders, which recognized the built up pressure on the last two weeks, and also evidently some big buyers. But what hasn't happened yet, is the entry of new retail investors, since people are scared by bear markets. Now with the publicity that is being made, expect new money to start pouring in to the market in the next weeks. This is what will power our next bull market. Needless to say, the Bitcoin Shorts bubble has just popped so that will also create added confidence.
@jelmerrr, In a few years people like you will feel the pain.
Trades999
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@diogoluis, How do you mean mate ;)
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@jelmerrr, Instead of spending time trying to find the perfect short strategy, in the long term you would certainty be better of if you spent that time to find the perfect spots to go long on Bitcoin. But you have your strategy and vision, nothing can be done about that. The only thing that needs to be recognized is that Bitcoin is not justa another asset, it's not a stock nor a bond, it's a highly disruptive technology with the potencial to drain LOTS of money from the convencional financial system, specially when the next recession strikes in.
Trades999
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@diogoluis, Don't think you get it. First of all, I was long since 2014 and I sold and went short since 15.000 or something. As soon as I see a reversal I'll go long again. For now, we are still in a bearish trend. I won't bleed, I always manage my risk. So I will always sleep well, if I'm not right. About your analysis, well spotted btw.
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@jelmerrr, Certainly your strategy is safer, but it minimizes your gains. Say you bought some BTC in 2014 at 500$. Then you sold at 15k and hope to buy back when you think we hit the bottom. But the thing is, Bitcoin's bottom now won't be anywhere near the 500$ or so that you bought it at back in 2014. So like it or not, hodling ends up being more profitable. I'm no permabull, but I do believe in this technology, and above all I like the part "crypto" in concurrencies, which means it cant be banned or censored, so for me, it makes no sense to minimize profits for some added safety like you do.
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@diogoluis, And of course, this is assuming we haven't bottomed already, which is what likely already happened.
Trades999
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@diogoluis, Well I have to say I disagree with this.
For example: We both bought for 500. You HODL and I sold at 15.000. We are trading around $8000,- now
I sold at 15.000 and went short there. You still HODL
My profit is: 14.500+7000=$21.000
Your profit is: $7500,-
I agree with you that I also believe in this technology and also in crypto. But I just folow the lines it says to me that we don't bottomed yet. If I see that signs I'll go long again simple as that ;)
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@jelmerrr, Of course my friend, if you only count one cycle, you win, but as we advance in time you'r strategy ends up less profitable.
Trades999
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@diogoluis, Can you explain that? :) No hard feelings btw.